NFL 2024/25: Bills – Chiefs
The top game of the AFC is coming up, the Bills welcome the still unbeaten Chiefs, who despite the winning streak according to odds only travel to Buffalo as slight underdogs. But are they really?
I’m expecting a very close match and am avoiding the win odds. Instead, as in my previous predictions, I’m going for a touchdown bet. For over 1.5 touchdowns per half, a whopping 1.63 is still waiting in the Bet365 betting configurator, the perfect Bills Chiefs tip in my eyes.
There’s a lot at stake on Sunday. The Chiefs vs. the Bills has long been a prestigious matchup in the AFC, and the teams are also battling for direct entry into the Divisional Round this year.
With a record of 9-0, the Chiefs have the best starting position, while the Bills are 8-2 with one more game.
The Josh Allen squad could move closer with a win. The Bills have won their last five matches, scoring at least 30 points in the last four.
They are still undefeated at Highmark Stadium, the last team to win here were the Chiefs in the Divisional Round last season, once again Kansas City was the last stop. Buffallo have lost to the Chiefs in three of the last four playoffs.
The most recent encounters have been close, with a 27-24 win for Kansas in the last match, while the Bills won the two regular-season games before that by 20-17 and 24-20. The penultimate playoff duel ended in overtime with a 42-35 final score.
At Bet365, the Bills are just ahead at 1.73, 2.10 is waiting for Kansas City, the handicap line is 2.5. It is not unlikely that a field goal could make the difference again in the end.
However, the Chiefs will have to make do without Harrison Butker, who will not be able to kick for the visitors for three to four weeks due to a knee operation. This personnel issue could be decisive in such a tight match-up.
Ultimately, I don’t dare to bet on the Bills to win. As strong as the offense is, the defense is just as weak against more notable opponents. Their last win against the Dolphins was a narrow 28-27 victory, and the staggering Colts also scored 20 points.
336 average yards allowed, against the NFL’s good offenses it was around 400 in each case. I definitely count the Chiefs among them, but so far they have only done the bare minimum, often only turning up the heat in the final phase.
In seven of nine matches, the lead was seven or fewer points, true to the motto “A good horse only jumps as high as it has to.” Buffalo will be a difficult hurdle to overcome.
One of the best defenses in the NFL will be put to the test. The last few games, the Bills have scored well against the Chiefs. The Bills have scored the third most points in the league so far, Allen has a record of 17 touchdowns with only four interceptions.
Mahomes has just twelve passing touchdowns to his name and has thrown the ball into the arms of the opposition nine times. He is right up there in this category.
Chiefs returner Kareem Hunt, who has already scored five touchdowns in his six games this season and has more rushing yards than he had with the Browns all of last season, will be dangerous for the Bills.
The man who was brought in for the injured Isiah Pacheco has touchdown odds of 1.80 at Betano. There you will also receive a lucrative new customer bonus and a €20 free bet before your first deposit if you have verified your account.
I spoke to two NFL-savvy colleagues before the match. “The bookies are expecting a lot of points, but I think it will be a low-scoring game.”
Another expects “a close game and a match-deciding field goal by the Bills”. Tyler Bass missed the equalizer in the last match against the Chiefs.
Conclusion and Prediction: Nine wins for the Chiefs are impressive, but they were almost all close victories. Neither I nor the bookies are convinced of a tenth win in a row. The Bills have cracked the 30-point mark in the past four matches.
Buffalo are still unbeaten at home and have not lost in five games. Against the stronger opponents, however, the defense has allowed a lot to happen. However, Kansas’ defense is also shaky when facing Allen, who leads one of the league’s best scoring offenses.
As you can see, aiming for a winning percentage would be fatal, nuances could make the difference!
Six of my last seven NFL predictions have gone through and in six of the last seven meetings we’ve seen at least two touchdowns in each half.
My prediction: Over 1.5 touchdowns each half.
