Bundesliga 15th matchday, Sunday, 12/22/2024 at 3:30 PM
Dieter Hecking has not yet won a league game with VfL Bochum and has only collected two points from five league games, but the trend is at least giving supporters quiet hopes.
The experienced coach has found the most effective lever that a team threatened with relegation can turn. Under Hecking, VfL is once again defending passionately and in many phases like a Bundesliga team.
Only against VfB Stuttgart did the bottom-placed team allow more than one goal (0-2). In the four other games under Hecking, Bochum kept “under 1.5 goals conceded”.
In attack, however, VfL disappointed just as much as in the previous weeks, but the bottom-placed team can devote themselves to this problem over the winter break.
The Bochum Heidenheim betting tip is aimed at two insecure teams and aims at LeoVegas at odds of 2.16 for “Under 2.5 goals”.
The betting providers’ prediction?
I can hardly believe my eyes, but it’s true: VfL Bochum are ending the 2024 calendar year with a Bundesliga game in which they are the odds-on favorites.
For the hosts, it is perhaps the most important game of the year. If the home side fulfill their role as slight favorites, you can get victory odds of up to 2.35.
Of course, the winless Bundesliga team does not get significant advantages in the odds comparison. However, Heidenheim has to settle for the role of the underdog with victory odds of up to 3.05.
After six Bundesliga defeats in a row, this is by no means unjustified, and in defense, FCH has recently been more vulnerable than Bochum.
KI-Prognose Bochum vs Heidenheim: That’s what ChatGPT tips
The artificial intelligence’s predictions are contrary to my expectations. ChatGPT attributes a supposedly low risk to the bet “Both teams score”, which you get at Tipwin at odds of 1.55. I see no value at all in this variant and would tend to argue against it, saying that the home side have left the field without scoring in three of the last four games.
But I have to give the AI prediction credit for at least consistently pursuing a line of thought. For odds of 1.70, ChatGPT recommends playing “Over 2.5 goals”. But I would leave my ODDSET bonus out of it in this case.
I find the idea for a risk bet most exciting and that’s why I’m even considering registering with Winamax. There would be a respectable betting rate of 5.20 for “half-time/final score: x/x” for a duel in which I could even imagine a complete nil return.
Analysis: Bochum vs. Heidenheim
The first half of the season is coming to an end and it looks as if Bochum and Heidenheim will have to worry about staying in the league until the end of the season.
While VfL has not yet been able to celebrate a win, FCH has also forgotten what it is like to score three goals in the German top flight.
Frank Schmidt and his protégés have been waiting for a win for nine Bundesliga matchdays – eight of these nine matches ended in defeat for the Conference League participant.
It is possible that even the sixteenth-placed team in the table is currently more unsettled than Bochum. Five consecutive league games in a row with “over 2.5 goals conceded” at least give me that feeling.
Dieter Hecking knows what priorities he wants to set in this relegation thriller. “It will be about the duels on Sunday,” which is not a hot take before a clash between two of the three last teams in the German top flight.
Both teams are willing to work, as they have already shown in the season so far. Only Union Berlin (203) have played more duels per game on average than Bochum (198) and Heidenheim (199).
We saw how such a comparison can end last weekend. In purely sporting terms, Bochum and Union Berlin drew 1-1 – a result that would also be acceptable for this Bochum Heidenheim tip.
Odds analysis
I wouldn’t have expected more than double the win for a maximum of two goals in the game. Bochum has the weakest shot conversion rate in the German top flight (6.63 percent).
The hosts are therefore not suitable for putting the FCH goal under constant pressure, or for taking the few chances they get.
So far, VfL have played in five Bundesliga matches under Dieter Hecking, scored no goals in three of them and only scored one goal in the other two.
My concerns about the guests’ defense are therefore manageable, even if Heidenheim, with 24.7 expected goals conceded, is one of the four most vulnerable defenses in the league.
Bochum vs. Heidenheim odds: It’s missing the goal nose
In front of the opposing goal, the two relegation candidates give each other very little. Bochum (-4.2) undercuts the expected goals most in the league.
In third position, FCH is at -2.1. Both teams lack composure in front of the opponent’s goal, which the VfL can impressively demonstrate with the weakest shot conversion rate of all Bundesliga teams (6.63 percent).
Heidenheim may have a shot conversion rate of 11.04 percent so far, but it has benefited above all from its incredible first few games of the season, in which it was above 20 percent.
There won’t be too many big chances in this clash. Bochum (31) and Heidenheim (30) are both below average in this category.
Work not play
For many young people, a career as a footballer is the dream job. The idea of making money from their hobby is often extremely tempting.
However, the players from Bochum and Heidenheim are currently experiencing a different, much tougher side of football. For many teams, the relegation battle means fewer games and more work.
There is no statistic that better summarizes this than the following: Heidenheim and Bochum play the fewest passes of all Bundesliga clubs per game (346 each).
Instead, it’s about disciplined work against the ball, resorting to fouls if necessary, and robbing the opposing team of the fun of the game.
Bochum does this extremely skillfully under Dieter Hecking. Only Union Berlin (13.9) in the league has more unfair tackles per game than Bochum (13.6).
Hecking has cultivated this approach in his first few games and has ensured that VfL has kept all five matches under 2.5 goals.
In search of further statistical information for my Bochum Heidenheim tip, I took a closer look at the passing game of the two teams.
After Holstein Kiel (1071), Heidenheim (1206) and Bochum (1219) have played the fewest passes in the attacking third.
The same three Bundesliga clubs also have the lowest rate of successful passes in the attacking third.
I’m probably not telling anyone anything new when I point out that the last three places in the Bundesliga table are occupied by exactly these three teams.
In terms of football, we can expect absolutely nothing from this duel. FCH (40.7 percent) and VfL (40.76 percent) are less interested in possession than any other team in the German top flight.
Offensive standards have not been a pillar for the two relegation candidates either. Only St. Pauli 1 has scored fewer goals from set pieces than Bochum (2), closely followed by Heidenheim (3).
My Bochum Heidenheim Tip:
We should expect a hard-fought, low-scoring basement duel in which both teams have a lot at stake.
There will probably be hardly any passages of play in which either team manages more than three clean passes inside the opposing half.
In my opinion, even a 0-0 draw is a possibility, which would only serve to prolong the losing streaks of both clubs unnecessarily.
My Bochum Heidenheim betting tip: Under 2.5 goals!
