World Cup qualifier, Tuesday, 25/03/2025 at 9:00 p.m.
We are in the middle of the hot phase of the World Cup qualifiers in South America. With five match days to go, Bolivia is on the brink. It is currently in seventh place, which would be enough to reach the playoffs. However, the lead over Venezuela and Peru is narrow.
In my Bolivia Uruguay betting tip, I don’t expect it to be enough for a home win. The visiting team has too much quality and Bolivia has too many deficits in defense, so the double chance X2 at a narrow 1.50 at NEO.bet is the right choice in my opinion, even though the odds were a little higher!
Bolivia has already conceded a whopping 30 goals, by far the most in the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers, which are not actually known for their high scoring rate. With 44 goals in 13 games, Bolivia’s were the most eventful for the neutral spectator.
In the last five games, the team will be trying to defend their seventh place. After all, they are already six points behind Colombia in fifth place. I doubt that the gap can be closed. Meanwhile, Uruguay are pretty much assured of a place at the World Cup, in fourth place.
Bolivia is listed as the favorite in the best sports betting apps at odds of 2.15. Uruguay already has 3.50, and we get 3.15 for the draw.
I am aware that the home factor plays a major role here, but I am still surprised at this spread.
In terms of squad value alone, a 470-million-euro team is facing a 13-million-euro team. These figures don’t tell the whole story, of course, but they do give a good indication of the quality gap.
Uruguay has a national team with countless top stars who play for the best clubs in Europe, while Bolivia has only half as many foreign-based players in its ranks. A draw should be possible at the very least.
Let’s be honest, anything other than an away win would be a surprise here. Even if Uruguay’s head coach Marcelo Bielsa were to rotate the team a bit, which I definitely don’t expect in a competitive game.
If, like me, you are considering the away win odds, you should check out Winamax. That’s where all new customers can get a free betting credit of up to €100. With that, you could play for the whopping odds risk-free.
At least Bolivia has not lost a home game under new coach Oscar Villegas, who has been in office since July 2024. A 4-0 win against Venezuela, 1-0 against Colombia and in the last international match phase we saw a 2-2 draw against Paraguay. And the first game of 2025?
That was a real disaster. Bolivia conceded three goals against the clearly weakest offense in the group, Peru, in a 3-1 defeat. The guests were able to double their goal tally in their 13th game and show where their opponents’ main problem area is in defense.
With 30 goals conceded, Bolivia has conceded the most goals and, with 197 shots on target and 87 on goal, has also allowed by far the most chances. And the last few duels against Uruguay? In the first leg, there was a 3-0 win for Uruguay.
The nations then met in the Copa America, again a one-sided game that was even more one-sided. 5:0 was the score after 90 minutes. Uruguay won 27 of 36 duels and lost only four games.
This statistic alone shows that the “double chance X2” and the away win odds are definitely something for a Tuesday betting slip!
Conclusion: Bolivia took a beating against Peru and has massive problems with the ball. Against the star-studded Urus, it should be a very bad and one-sided game again, just like in the last few duels.
Uruguay lost narrowly to Argentina at the weekend, and have only won one of their last seven qualifiers. Given this meager return, I prefer to hedge my bets with the “double chance X2”. Especially since Bolivia have not lost any of their last three home games.
My Bolivia vs. Uruguay betting tip: Double chance X2.
