World Cup Qualifiers, Thursday, 05.09.2024 at 22:00
During this international break, there are hardly any matches on both sides of the pond where I think the bookmakers are as wrong as in the 2026 World Cup qualifier, which will be played in El Alto on Thursday.
In my Bolivia Venezuela betting tip, I would almost go so far as to give the strong visitors a win at HC -1. And anyone who watched the last edition of the Copa America will know why …
First, let’s take a look at the Bolivia Venezuela odds: The hosts are surprisingly favorites, despite their status as the weakest CONMEBOL nation of the last 20 years.
A win for “La Verde” has odds of 1.88 – the approximate probability of a coin toss.
On the other hand, we have Venezuela, who go into the race as clear underdogs. A three-pointer from “Vinotinto” has odds of 4.00. If you bet on a surprise here, you could make a tidy profit if you score!
I’ll explain in more detail why I think the bookmakers have made a serious mistake here …
Bolivia have not cut a good figure in recent months. They have lost eight of their last nine international matches. Only against Andorra in a friendly match was “La Verde” able to celebrate a victory at all.
Things also looked bleak at the recent Copa America. The Bolivians were mostly without a chance and suffered a number of heavy defeats. A series of poor results that should make you cautious when placing a bet.
Venezuela, on the other hand, are a little more difficult to assess. Sure, they are not known as a top team, but compared to their upcoming opponent, they convince me much more!
If you take a look at the betting offers, you can see that interesting moves are possible here.
Bolivia have lost each of their last four international matches by at least two goals.
The recommendation here: Victory Venezuela with handicap -1. With odds of 10.00, this bet offers a fabulous return.
For the more cautious among you, there is also the well-known option “Double chance X2” on VEN.
After all, Vinotinto have not lost a competitive match in the regular season since September 2023. With odds of 1.75, this is therefore a safer bet
If you look at the direct comparison, you can see that Venezuela clearly had the upper hand recently. The last clash against Bolivia ended with a clear 4:1 win for Vinotinto – a real statement!
Venezuela also dominated the games before that. Four of the last five encounters went to the “underdogs”, and they scored at least three goals each time.
The trend therefore clearly favors another Venezuelan victory, perhaps even with a few goals difference again. That could certainly be a good starting point for your next tip!
Bolivia currently have an uncompetitive squad that is also severely lacking in international experience. This could significantly weaken them in this duel.
Luis Haquín from Ponte Petra is one of the few players who earns his living abroad. But even he alone cannot compensate for the lack of experience.
The forward line looks particularly poor. Carmelo Algarañaz, the only nominated attacker with international goals, has only scored two goals so far.
The lack of other reasonably capable strikers could prevent Bolivia from scoring any goals at all. An aspect to keep an eye on at the betting shop!
A few words about the visitors: Venezuela are playing an impressive World Cup qualifying campaign and have only lost one of their six games so far.
The team even has two points more than Brazil in the table, which only adds to their motivation.
The Venezuelans also impressed at the Copa America, winning all three group games. They only lost to Canada in the quarter-finals
The squad may not boast any dazzling personalities, but the team is well-rehearsed and has shown that it can hold its own in stressful situations.
I still think it’s a complete mystery to me why the betting operators with a German license have sided so vehemently with the Bolivians
Conclusion: In my Bolivia Venezuela prediction, there is a lot to be said for a victory for the Venezuelans.
Bolivia put in a disastrous performance at the last Copa America, while Venezuela won all three games in the group stage – that’s quite an impressive record!
In addition, the hosts have struggled to beat any South American nation and only win against the smaller nations, such as Andorra. It is therefore surprising that the bookmakers still favor them, even if the Bolivians’ home advantage in the high altitude of La Paz certainly plays a role.
In my Bolivia Venezuela betting tip, I will therefore settle for a simple away win bet
