World Cup Qualifiers, Saturday, 07.09.2024 at 03:00
I don’t like to exaggerate, but the clash between Brazil and Ecuador on matchday 7 of the South American World Cup qualifiers is one of the most interesting matches of the entire sports betting week for me.
I will of course explain the reasons for this in my Brazil Ecuador betting tip, garnished with a colorful bouquet of betting options based on the statistics presented. The focus is on my main tip “Both teams to score”, which I play using the practical Oddset app
About the facts: The fact that the major bookmakers see the Brazilians as the favorites at average odds of 1.40 in the home game against Ecuador is fine for now.
After all, the playing potential of the five-time world champions is far greater. At this point, however, things quickly become very dark around the proud Selecao.
In fact, Brazil have been a complete disappointment so far in the current World Cup qualifiers. After six matchdays, they are only in sixth place with two wins, one draw and three defeats.
With a lead of just two points over eighth place, World Cup qualification is – at least from today’s perspective – in serious danger
The main reason for the misery is the weak defensive performance. The Brazilians have already conceded seven goals. Only Bolivia (14) and Peru (8) have been worse defensively.
Accordingly, I do not expect Brazil to be able to hold their own against Ecuador. However, a scrappy exchange of blows with numerous defensive blunders cannot be ruled out.
With odds of around 1.80 at Winamax Germany, the bet “Over 2.5 goals” is a good alternative. If you want to take a little more risk, you could also consider the “Double Chance X2”.
The odds for this are just under 2.80 and therefore offer sufficient value. The relevant statistics: Brazil have only won three of their last twelve international matches after regular time
And what about opponents Ecuador? Coach Sebastián Beccacece’s team have one thing in common with the Brazilians.
Like the Selecao, the Ecuadorians were knocked out in the first knockout round of the Copa America 2024. Brazil against Uruguay. Ecuador against the eventual winners Argentina.
Unlike the Brazilians, however, Ecuador is on target in the current World Cup qualifiers
Having started the competition as a better mid-table team, they are currently in fifth place and could take a big step towards the 2026 World Cup with a win in Brazil.
However, their own defense is too full of holes to trust the underdogs to win in Brazil.
In fact, Ecuador have only kept a clean sheet against Mexico in their last eight games.
If the visitors concede more than one goal against the Brazilians, you can pick up solid odds of around 1.60. It is also a fact that recent victories have tended to come against minor soccer powers
Successes against Jamaica, Honduras, Bolivia and Guatemala must be categorized accordingly.
And this is precisely the reason why I have decided to place a goal bet for my Brazil Ecuador prediction.
Regardless of the actual result, I believe that the underdog will score at least one goal against the indisposed Brazil defense.
If you want to bet on a complete shipwreck of the Brazilians against Ecuador, you should pay close attention to the statistics of the direct comparison
Because it must be clearly stated: The Ecuadorians are one of the Selecao’s favorite opponents. The five-time world champions have lost only two of their 35 matches. They have won 27 out of six draws.
However, it is also true that the Brazilians have failed to win the last two meetings.
At the Copa America 2021, the favorites had to settle for a 1-1 draw. In their last World Cup qualifier to date, Ecuador fought their way to a point with the same result. If the upcoming clash also ends 1:1, there are strong odds of 8.75 to dust off.
However, there is usually nothing to be gained for Ecuador, especially in Brazil. Ecuador have not won a World Cup qualifier against the Selecao since 1993
Admittedly, Brazil are in a real crisis and will have to pull themselves together in the coming months to avoid coming under serious pressure in the World Cup qualifiers.
However, a home win against their favorite opponents Ecuador should be no mean feat.
Accordingly, I expect the Brazilians to dominate the game, but to repeatedly slip up defensively, which the underdogs can at least exploit to score a goal. Accordingly, I do not believe that the Selecao will win by one goal.
So my Brazil Ecuador betting tip is: Both teams will score at least one goal each
