Women’s Olympic soccer tournament, 2nd round, Sunday, 28.07.2024 at 17:00
On paper, Group C is the toughest of the entire tournament. Spain, Brazil and Japan are all among the top ten women’s national teams in the world rankings and Nigeria have one of the most successful teams in African women’s soccer.
Brazil came extremely close on the first matchday (1:0 against Nigeria), while Japan had to surrender to the reigning world champions from Spain (1:2).
In my Brazil Japan betting tip, I’m predicting a fiercely contested match in which “NOT both teams score”.
The odds to win a soccer match could hardly be tighter. If you take the odds in the best sports betting apps as a basis, Brazil is shown as a minimal underdog with odds of around 2.65.
However, the odds are not significantly lower in the event of a Japanese victory. Coach Futoshi Ikeda and his team can still consider themselves slightly favored with odds of around 2.40.
The 38-year-old Marta is using the Olympic Games for her last major appearance in the women’s national team kit. This will be her sixth appearance at the Olympic Games and she is determined to make it better than the last World Cup.
The Selecao unexpectedly ended the 2023 Women’s World Cup in the group stage. At least Arthur Elias’ players were able to win the Copa America Feminista for the eighth time beforehand
The results in preparation were somewhat reassuring. The Elias side won four games in a row, including the first matchday (1-0 against Nigeria).
During this wave of success, the Brazilian ball artists surfed a fantastic defense that has earned a clean sheet four times in a row.
One of those clean sheets came in the last meeting with Japan. The last time the two national teams faced each other was in April 2024. The winner had to be found in a penalty shoot-out after a complete draw (Brazil won 3:0).
The preparation of the Japanese women’s national team was not much worse. The Nadeshikos remained unbeaten in all four preparation matches.
After three wins in a row, they finished with a 1-1 draw against Colombia. The Ikeda team’s disciplined defense was also conspicuously strong.
During the four preparation matches, the Japanese built up a terrific goal difference of 11:2 and did not concede a goal in two matches
In the previous nine months, the Brazilians and the Japanese had met a total of three times. The balance of these three matches could not be more even (1-1-1).
Furthermore, the results of these encounters strengthen my Brazil Japan betting tip, as in three out of four games, at most one of the two teams scored.
As already mentioned, the last encounter was still 0-0 after full time, with the Ndeshikas’ defense particularly impressive in this pairing, not allowing more than 0.45 expected goals against (via Wyscout).
The Olympic Games have usually been a good place for Japan. In four of the five tournaments played up to this year, the Japanese women’s national team qualified for the knockout phase.
In addition, Brazil (2004, 2008) and Japan (2012) have both won at least one silver medal and, from a historical perspective, can be quite satisfied with their performances at the Olympic Games.
I’m particularly excited about Futoshi Ikeda’s choice of formation. Until the start of the tournament, he had his players playing with a five-man back line, but against Spain, the Japan coach opted for a 4-4-2 system.
Whatever the outcome, Japan’s ball security and tactical discipline in their work against the ball will keep them in the game for a long time
Six of the Selecao’s last seven matches would have resulted in a “Both teams score: No” would have led to success.
The same applies to three of the four previous matches between these two women’s national teams, so the high odds for my Brazil Japan betting tip come as a positive surprise.
My Brazil Japan betting tip is therefore: Both teams will NOT score
