Olympic football tournament, final, Saturday, 10.08.2024 at 17:00
US keeper Naeher’s cat-like reflex save from Freiberg’s header in the final minutes of extra time is worthy of a gold medal.
That save prevented the DFB team from equalizing later on and instead allowed the United States to punch their ticket to the final at the legendary Prinzenpark.
Meanwhile, in my USA Brazil betting tip, I look at the best betting scenarios in a final that few soccer experts would have expected in this composition
Brazil have fought their way to the final against all odds and the prophecies of doom of many soccer fans through sheer willpower and hard work.
Once again, the sports betting providers are hanging the clear underdog role around their necks. So that’s nothing new in my Brazil USA prediction either.
But that seems to be spurring the South Americans on! They went into the quarter-finals with a 6-win record, into the semi-finals with a 4-win record, and this time?
The oddsmakers’ forecast?
After the exciting introduction, I must of course tell you the exact value of the win odds for Brazil in the user-friendly Bet365 app this time.
A short drum roll, and here’s the answer: on average – depending on the exact provider – you’ll get odds of around 4.10 for a win for the South Americans in regulation time.
On the other hand, 1.95 is available if the Americans prevail this time twelve years after their last Olympic final appearance
Analysis: Brazil vs USA
The Brazilians’ performance defies the sober analysis of any soccer expert.
After all, there are good reasons why the sports betting providers have assigned the South Americans the clear underdog role in both the quarter-finals and semi-finals.
However, despite their limited resources and an offense that is unimpressive on paper, the Brazilians’ hard work has enabled them to knock out even the strongest teams
The Brazilians excelled against France (1:0) and Spain (4:2).
The Americans, on the other hand, seem to have played somewhat below their capabilities on their way to the final.
Both against Japan (1:0 n. V.) and against Germany (1:0 n. V.), they were only able to pull out of the affair thanks to an improved performance in extra time
Analysis of odds
There is no reason for me not to assume that the Brazilians will “overperform” again, while the Americans could “underperform”.
Consequently, an attractive double chance 1X bet comes into my focus, which I would like to enrich with the additional condition “Under 2.5 goals”.
I also like the combined odds of 2.57 because the strong US defense has only conceded two goals in the entire tournament – and only in the group stage.
As a result, the USWNT should concede far fewer goals than the Spaniards did in their semi-final match against Brazil a few days ago
USA dominate the direct comparison, but …
At first glance, the picture appears to be very one-sided, as the Brazilians have only won one of the last fourteen head-to-head matches. This could indicate a clear superiority of the Americans.
However, a closer look at the last two duels from February 2023 and March 2024 shows that the United States only won very narrowly in each case.
The games ended with narrow scores of 1-0 and 2-1 in favour of the US, underlining the true competitiveness of the Brazilian team and suggesting that the games were closer than the historical results suggest.
Brazil with the Marta Boost
You’ll only find the best sports betting bonus with us, but the best stories are still written by life itself.
The adventure of the Brazilian Olympic team is like a screenplay that could easily be made into a movie.
Legendary world footballer Marta was shown a red card in the group stage and, despite appealing, was suspended not only for the quarter-final but also for the semi-final against Spain.
Now, at the tender age of 38, Marta is eligible to play again in her last international match for Brazil.
That will give her teammates a huge boost of motivation – and we’ve already seen what that can lead to in the games against France and Spain.
While Marta unites the Brazilian “Seleção” as a motivational figurehead, the USA lacks leaders.
Long-time leaders such as Megan Rapinoe and Alex Morgan have retired from international soccer and the young team is now missing a much-needed driving force.
Although the United States have already secured a medal, they have been clearly nervous since the start of the knockout phase
My Brazil USA tip:
The dead live longer, as we all know, and the Brazilian players have already turned too many games on their heads to suddenly write them off.
Marta’s comeback in her final international match will motivate the South Americans to the limit and spur them on to another top performance after their victory over Spain.
The USA may have the more talented players, but I’m not entirely comfortable with them. The generational change that has taken place may have deprived them of an important leader on the pitch.
My tip: Double chance 1X & Under 2.5 goals
