Will the Seleção get revenge for the first leg?
Partly because they lost the first leg in Asunción 0-1, the Seleção still have to fight for their place in the 2026 World Cup. In fourth place in the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifiers, the record world champions are only four points ahead of seventh place with three games to go, which would only be enough to qualify for the intercontinental playoffs. However, if Brazil beats Paraguay at home, it would be a big step towards the final round.
Carlo Ancelotti’s debut last week was not all that rosy, though. The Seleção could not manage more than a goalless draw against surprise team Ecuador. The offensively talented players managed just three shots on goal. If that doesn’t improve significantly, another low-scoring match is on the cards for Brazil against Paraguay. After all, the Guaraníes are unbeaten in nine international matches (five wins, four draws) and have kept a clean sheet five times during that period.
Basically, the highly decorated Seleção are of course the favorites against the Guaraníes on home turf, having won 50 of their 84 international matches against them (22 draws, twelve defeats). However, the Brazilians lost the first leg in Asunción 1-0 because they once again failed to score, which has been a recurring theme in their lackluster World Cup qualifying campaign in South America so far.
Brazil – Statistics & current form
The Brazilian national soccer team is not exactly going through its best phase at the moment. In the last two World Cups, they were knocked out in the quarter-finals, as they were in the disappointing 2024 Copa América. With three matchdays remaining in the qualifying phase, the Seleção are not yet certain of qualifying for next year’s finals, having won just six of their 15 games so far (four draws, five defeats).
However, if Brazil’s tip for a home win against Paraguay proves correct, it could secure them a direct ticket to the finals. Accordingly, a turnaround in the second competitive game under new coach Carlo Ancelotti would be important after last week’s debut ended in a goalless draw against second-placed Ecuador.
Brazil has been struggling in attack recently
In fact, the highly decorated nation has won just one of its last five qualifying games (three draws, one defeat), which is also due to the fact that the offense has not been clicking despite players such as Vinicius Júnior, Richarlison, and Raphinha. Once again, the players from the Sugar Loaf Mountain failed to score against Ecuador (0-0). That was also the problem in the first leg against the Guaraníes, which they lost 0-1.
It is telling that the Seleção did not create a flurry of chances, but instead managed just three shots on goal in their first game under Carlo Ancelotti in Ecuador – two of which were on target. That is simply not enough for such a highly decorated nation, which is now feeling the pressure from outside due to its lack of results.
Paraguay – Statistics & current form
The Paraguayan national football team has missed out on the last three World Cups in a row, but is currently working to qualify for the World Cup for the first time since the 2010 finals in South Africa. With 24 points and a ten-point lead over eighth place, the Guaraníes have already secured at least a place in the intercontinental playoffs.
They are six points ahead of seventh place. A draw at the Sugar Loaf would therefore be worth its weight in gold to defend this lead on the last three matchdays. However, the bookmakers have La Albirroja as clear underdogs. German-licensed betting providers are offering odds of around 8.00 for an away win for Gustavo Alfaro’s team in Brazil against Paraguay, even though they won the first leg against the Seleção 1-0.
Paraguay is very solid defensively
Overall, we cannot understand why the visitors are such clear underdogs, especially since Paraguay beat Uruguay 2-0 just last week. The Guaraníes remained unbeaten in their ninth international game in a row (five wins, four draws) and celebrated another clean sheet against a nation that is certainly no stranger to scoring goals. It was their fifth clean sheet in their last nine international games, in which they have conceded only six goals in total.
Most recently, La Albirroja even managed a 2-1 win against high-flying Argentina, which should really make Brazil sit up and take notice. The defense around Gustavo Gómez (Palmeiras) and Omar Alderete (Getafe) clears everything, while veterans Miguel Almirón (Atlanta United) and Antonio Sanabria (Turin FC) are responsible for the creative moments and can always steer games in the right direction with individual actions. The mix in Alfaro’s in-form team is very harmonious, which is why it could prove to be a mistake to write off Paraguay too easily at the Arena Corinthians.
Brazil – Paraguay Head-to-head record / H2H record
Head to head: 50 – 22 – 12
A total of 84 matches have been played between the two nations so far, with the Seleção leading the head-to-head record very clearly with 50 wins. However, Brazil suffered one of only twelve defeats against Paraguay just last September in the first leg of the CONMEBOL World Cup qualifier, when the Albirroja won 1-0 in Asunción.
Brazil – Paraguay Tip
In our opinion, the top bookmakers are leaning a little too heavily towards Brazil in the odds for the match against Paraguay, who lost the first leg against the Guaraníes 0-1 and also failed to score in Ancelotti’s debut against Ecuador, managing only three shots on goal (0-0). The Seleção are struggling to score goals and now face an opponent who are unbeaten in nine international games (five wins, four draws) and have kept five clean sheets during that period (six goals conceded in total).
We wouldn’t categorically rule out a result like 1-0. However, it shouldn’t be a particularly high-scoring game, especially as a point in Brazil would be a huge step towards direct qualification for the 2026 World Cup for the Guaraníes, which is why La Albirroja are expected to play very defensively at the Arena Corinthians.
