Premier League, Sunday, 06.04.2025 at 3:00 PM
Fourth place – it actually sounds like a great season if only it were already over! Chelsea FC have to be on edge. The competition is so close that the Blues could even be completely eliminated from international business.
In my Brentford Chelsea tip, we are dealing with two teams that are currently struggling for consistency. Since the Blues are unfortunately no longer convincing me away from home, I’ll tell you why I’ve set the double chance 1X here.
Three wins from their last four games? It sounds like Chelsea FC could be about to put in a strong finish! The Blues are desperate to get back into the Champions League, but they’re not alone in their quest.
The gaps between fourth and eighth place are incredibly small, so nobody can afford to make any mistakes here. The Londoners are really turning it on at home, having won five in a row.
Only two goals have been conceded in the process. All well and good, but this season won’t end with appearances at Stamford Bridge. Away from home, the team has slumped.
Two points were earned in the last seven games away from home, and they have lost four times in a row. Own goals? A measly three! In this respect, it makes sense to bet that Chelsea will not score on Sunday.
At Betway, the corresponding odds are 4.75! A pretty high value, so the bookmakers are definitely expecting Chelsea to score. Since September, on the other hand, they have only played to a clean sheet once away from home.
The away weakness naturally also leads to the fact that there have only been two wins in a row since December – and a few weeks ago, the Blues were only lucky that the fixture list gave them two home games in a row.
Chelsea know that Brentford are by no means an easy opponent. They managed to win 2-1 in the first leg, but before that there were a number of matches that did not go so well.
Two draws and three defeats, 11 goals conceded in the last six games – it will be a while before the Bees can be considered one of their favorite opponents again.
But it is also important to mention that the defeats mentioned all occurred at home. The Blues have not lost at the Community Stadium since Brentford’s promotion, which is much more positive to read.
The bookmakers are on the side of the guests anyway, they seem to expect a close duel overall. Chelsea are the favorites, but with odds of 2.15 to 3.20, a home win would not be a surprise.
Brentford are eleventh and can certainly be described as a gray mouse in the middle of the pack. Their results have been changing, and no pattern has been discernible for months.
But there is one thing I do notice: in their own stadium, it’s sometimes all over the place. With a goal difference of 30:27, the average is 3.8 goals per game.
Only Liverpool score more goals at home, but on the other hand, there are only four teams that are worse defensively. At the same time, I have to say that the last four home games didn’t cross the 2.5 goal mark.
The last home win? That was on December 7, so four months ago! They have lost five times since then. Have they ever managed to beat a top team at home?
Crystal Palace, Southampton, Wolverhampton, Ipswich, Bournemouth, Leicester and Newcastle have all been beaten, with only one of those opponents among the best. Good for Chelsea, because the Blues are at home in the top 4.
With one goal in their last four home games, the Bees are not satisfied either. Since November, they have only managed to take a half-time lead into the dressing room once.
Some can’t win away from home anymore, others haven’t won at home in months – but it can’t be both losing! When Chelsea and Brentford meet on Sunday, it is unlikely that there will be much self-confidence on the pitch.
For the Blues, it’s only going well at home, and they’re not even scoring goals away from home anymore. And for Brentford, it’s exactly the opposite. So in the end, I couldn’t really find a favorite.
Since the guests might still have the Conference League in mind, where there is still a chance of winning the title, I have decided to give the home side a minimal advantage and to predict:
Brentford scores against Chelsea!
