FA Cup, 4th round, Saturday, 08/02/2025 at 9:00 p.m.
0:7 against Nottingham, negative record for Brighton. Things are not going well for Fabian Hürzeler and his Seagulls. Will he turn it around or will the ex-Pauli coach be fired soon? Progressing in the FA Cup would help him.
But I don’t trust the team to do that on Saturday, not against the Blues. In my Brighton Chelsea betting tip, I am going for the opposite bet, that the Londoners will advance to the next round.
And that will be hard enough, if I look at the odds. The odds for a win are 2.80, for a draw 3.70 and Chelsea have odds of 2.20. After the 0-7 defeat, I am far from placing a bet on Brighton.
Especially since the defensive staff has been thinned out quite a bit. Two wing-backs, a center-back and four central midfielders are currently out injured. How are they supposed to cope against Chelsea’s powerful offense?
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Not quite as drastic, but also shaken is the defense of the capital city. The German betting providers therefore have goals on the screen. For over 2.5 goals, we sometimes don’t even get 1.50 odds. The goal of both teams is below the mark.
I only find the merger of the two odds really profitable, but the 1.70 is not what I had hoped for before looking for odds. Therefore, this time I will bet that Chelsea will advance.
No goal in two games and a whopping seven goals conceded in one match, the form could hardly be worse before the match against Chelsea and the dangerous attack around Cole Palmer is traveling in full force.
I also find the following two odds quite interesting: Chelsea scores in both halves for 2.70 or the safe option “Over 1.5 Chelsea goals”, which is offered for 1.80.
The visitors’ advanced offensive figures are certainly intimidating. 389 shots in 24 league games, the third-most in the entire Premier League, with the Blues scoring two goals per game overall.
At the same time, the Conference League was turned upside down. Anyone who thought that Chelsea, with by far the most expensive squad in the third-tier competition, would only go through the league phase at half speed was mistaken. Six games, six wins, 26:5 goals!
2025 has been so-so so far. A 1-1 draw against Crystal Palace and 2-2 draw against Bournemouth, like the 3-1 loss to Man City, dampened the mood.
However, the two-time Champions League winner was able to shine against Wolverhampton (3-1) and West Ham (2-1).
Two wins out of the last three games and how did it look in the first leg against Brighton?
Chelsea have not been a good place for Brighton in recent games. Chelsea have won the last four competitive games. In 16 duels, Brighton only won twice. In 2022, we saw the only home win so far.
We also saw at least two goals in each of those games. Statistically, the combination of the “double chance X2” and “over 1.5 goals” would therefore be a clever bet. There are worse odds of 1.65.
Conclusion: Brighton have conceded the highest Premier League defeat of all time and have not scored in their last two matches. Due to numerous absences, Hürzeler also has to make compromises in the line-up against Chelsea in the FA Cup.
Meanwhile, the Londoners have an abundance of attacking options and have won two of their last three games, creating plenty of chances. The first leg was a one-sided affair.
Whether in 90 minutes, or only in extra time or a penalty shootout, I expect that Brighton will not recover so quickly after the 0-7 and will be knocked out by one of England’s best offenses.
My Brighton Chelsea tip: Chelsea will go through.
