Premier League, Sunday, 04.05.2025 at 15:00
The Premier League has already secured five Champions League spots for next season, and yet there are still far too many teams jostling behind Liverpool and Arsenal.
In my Brighton Newcastle tip, I’m focusing particularly on the visitors, who have the best chance of reaching the premier competition. In my analysis, I’ll also reveal why I’m expecting a high-scoring game with over 2.5 goals.
The fifth starting spot for the 2025/26 Champions League is causing turmoil in the Premier League. Currently, five teams between third and seventh place are fighting to finish in the top five.
Newcastle is one of them and, currently in third place, is in a good position. However, three clubs are hot on their heels, and one of them could even overtake them with a win in their postponed game.
The Magpies therefore need to finish strongly to be in contention at the end. They have won six of their last seven games, with only a 1-4 defeat to Aston Villa representing a major slip-up during this period.
This result was not to be expected, given that they scored 18 goals in the other six games mentioned. When Newcastle are involved, a spectacular game is often on the cards.
The average number of goals scored so far this season is 3.2, so there’s a lot on offer here. Newcastle have only failed to score in the first half three times since November. So is it worth betting that the visitors will score in the first half at the weekend?
Bwin are offering odds of 1.82, which doesn’t sound too bad. New customers should also head straight to the Bwin voucher after registering, as you can double your deposit.
Is it a disadvantage that the team now has to play away again? After all, their last away game ended in a 1-4 defeat against Aston Villa.
The fact that three of the last five away games have ended without a point does not look particularly positive. The victories against Leicester and West Ham were against teams that are far down the table (19th and 17th).
In addition, Alexander Isak has not scored away from home since the end of January. Newcastle’s top striker already has 22 goals and six assists to his name, but with three goals in his last seven games, he is struggling to find his form.
He also failed to make an impact in the 0-1 defeat to Brighton in the first half of the season. Is Brighton a bit of a bogey team for Newcastle? That might be going too far, but Newcastle certainly don’t enjoy playing against the Seagulls.
Shortly after the aforementioned 0-1 defeat, they were knocked out of the FA Cup 1-2 after extra time. With two wins from their last 16 encounters, I’m afraid I don’t have any encouraging statistics to offer Newcastle fans.
It’s certainly interesting that there have been eight draws in this period alone. The last time they won at the AMEX Stadium was in February 2017, when both clubs were still in the Championship.
Sounds like Newcastle are the underdogs on Sunday? Our bookmakers with ApplePay aren’t quite so pessimistic, with average odds of 2.35 to 2.80 for the visitors.
Brighton are likely to be playing for the Golden Pineapple, as the ninth-placed team are already well behind the leaders. After five games without a win, they finally had something to cheer about in their recent 3-2 win over West Ham, with the winning goal coming in injury time.
The Seagulls have conceded two or more goals per game in their last six matches. In this respect, I have to take a look at the bet “Newcastle over 1.5 goals”: The Bwin odds are just under 1.90.
The last eleven rounds have seen a goal difference of 24:24 – an average of 4.4 goals per game! It’s hard to believe that the team delivered results like a 0-0 draw against Brentford and a 0-1 home defeat to Everton around the turn of the year.
They have also kept a clean sheet in their own stadium only three times. For more than three months, they have been guaranteed to score at least 2.5 goals, and in that period Brighton have only failed to score at least twice on three occasions.
How much spectacle will we see on Sunday? Brighton are currently setting off one offensive firework after another, but Newcastle are also very consistent in producing high-scoring results.
Since the Seagulls have nothing to play for in purely sporting terms, they can play freely without pressure. It’s different for the visitors, who need points for the Champions League and have to play for the win.
That naturally opens up space. However, since Brighton’s defense is very shaky, I was left with only the following betting option:
There will be more than 2.5 goals!
