Conference League group stage, quarter-finals, Thursday, 11.04.2024
The quarter-final between Club Brugge and PAOK Thessaloniki has the potential to be one of the highest-scoring matches of the knockout phase.
Apart from Nordsjaelland (2.8 goals per matchday), no other Conference League side has been more prolific than PAOK (2.6 goals per game) and Bruges (2.4 goals per game).
Both teams’ hunger for goals has largely shifted to the second half over the course of the Conference League season. That’s why I’m playing the odds of 2.15 for “Half-time with most goals: 2nd half” with my Interwetten voucher
The group stage of the Conference League posed no major challenge for either Brugge (5 wins, 1 draw) or PAOK Saloniki (5 wins, 1 draw).
In particular, their respective offenses made short work of their opponents’ defenses, scoring more goals than any other participant (Bruges: 15; PAOK: 16).
Club Brugge start the quarter-finals with a home game and odds of up to 1.77. The odds for this soccer bet should not blow any bettor’s mind.
Including qualification, the Belgians have not yet been defeated at home in this Conference League season (5 wins, 2 draws).
Although their success on the European stage is remarkable, the “Blauw-Zwarten” decided to change coaches at the end of March.
Interim coach Nicky Hayen (previously coach of the 2nd team) is currently in charge. So far, Bruges is still unbeaten under the new coach (1 win, 1 draw).
One essential aspect for my Bruges PAOK Saloniki betting tip is still typical after the change of coach at Bruges: goals in the second half
In their first appearance under Nicky Hayen, Club Brugge were 1-0 down at half-time in the city derby against Cercle Brugge. Andreas Skov Olsen’s first goal of the season (83rd minute) prevented a defeat late on.
On the next matchday (3:1 against Anderlecht), the home side got off to a dream start and took the lead after three minutes. However, the remaining three goals of the match were scored in the second half.
This clearly demonstrable tendency can already be seen throughout the entire Conference League season at Club Brugge. The third-best offense in the competition (2.4 goals per game) scored 68 percent of their own goals (13/19) after the break.
The home side’s defense is as strong as a rock, conceding just five goals in total (0.6 per game). Bruges only conceded one goal before the break!
Anyone who attended elementary school for arithmetic will have quickly realized that 80% of the goals conceded by the Belgians came in the second half
For my Bruges PAOK Saloniki tip, however, it’s not enough if only one team saves the goals for the second half.
Fortunately, the Greek Super League leaders show a similar pattern to Bruges and usually save some energy for the second half
PAOK Thessaloniki have the second-best offense per game in the entire competition (2.8 goals per game) and have the most expected goals after Lille (16.4 xG).
Overall, no team in the current competition has scored more goals than the visitors under coach Razvan Lucescu (21).
The distribution of goals scored by the “two-headed eagle of the north” is even more drastic in favor of the second half. Almost three quarters of their own goal celebrations (15/21) took place after the half-time break.
Taken together, PAOK conceded significantly more goals (13) than Brugge (5). The percentage of goals conceded in the second half is also high at 69%.
Both teams have produced remarkable attacking performances in this Conference League season. The odds of 1.82 for “Over 2.5 goals in the match” at NEObet are surprisingly high
PAOK Saloniki have perhaps the best attack in the competition and have set a new record for a Greek team with 21 goals in one season. The 13 different goalscorers also catch my eye.
Bruges have not lost their tendency to score goals in the second half under interim coach Hayen, so I’m pretty confident in my Bruges PAOK Saloniki betting tip at “More goals will be scored in the 2nd half “
