Bundesliga relegation predictions: Who will be relegated in 2026?
While the race for the championship title is hopefully going to be exciting at the top, at the bottom of the table it will be a tough fight for survival in the Bundesliga, as always.
Here we provide a compact overview of the Bundesliga relegation candidates for 2026 – who will be fighting to stay in the league and who has a good chance of doing so, and why.
Bundesliga relegation predictions for 1. FC Köln & HSV
With 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV, two big names are back in the Bundesliga. Are they here to stay, or will they be back in the second division after just one year?
Statistically speaking, however, one of the two promoted teams will be relegated at the end of the season, because: In the history of the Bundesliga, it has only happened 18 times that all promoted teams have managed to stay up.
The last time this happened was in the 2020/2021 season, when Arminia Bielefeld and VfB Stuttgart managed to stay in the league. Last year, for example, Holstein Kiel was relegated immediately.
1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV are at the top of every Bundesliga relegation prediction at the start of the season. Both experts and the Bundesliga relegation betting odds of the best soccer betting providers repeatedly mention this duo when it comes to relegation candidates.
In Cologne and Hamburg, they want to defy the negative Bundesliga relegation predictions. With commitment, determination, and fighting spirit, they aim to secure their place in the league. Especially knowing that it will be a very difficult season.
In the Bundesliga market value table, both Effzeh, who came up as second division champions, and the Rothosen can be found at the bottom. Only FC Sankt Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim have nominally weaker squads.
However, in recent years, a promoted team has always managed to stay in the league. Last season it was FC St. Pauli, and the season before that it was Heidenheim.
From this perspective, it should also be possible for Cologne and Hamburg to stay up.
Relegation prediction: Will Heidenheim be relegated this time?
The third name that comes up in every Bundesliga relegation prediction is that of 1. FC Heidenheim.
This is mainly because the “village club” finished last season in 15th place and thus had to go into the relegation play-offs. There, FCH managed to save themselves from relegation to the 2nd Bundesliga against Elversberg.
However, a look at recent seasons shows why Heidenheim is now facing relegation from the Bundesliga in 2025: in recent years, “staying up” has only delayed the club’s descent into the second Bundesliga.
VfL Bochum was relegated in 2025 after winning the relegation play-offs the previous year (2024). Hertha BSC suffered the same fate in 2023 after narrowly avoiding relegation in the previous year (2022).
Will FCH now suffer the same fate?
According to the Bundesliga relegation predictions of the experts and the betting odds of the bookmakers, Heidenheim is likely to face another difficult season. After all, Cologne and Hamburg are rated slightly higher than Kiel and Bochum were last season. This means that FCH could now slip all the way to the bottom.
Or will Frank Schmidt and his men pull off another “miracle of the Ostalb”?
Will St. Pauli stay up?
No Bundesliga relegation prediction without FC St. Pauli. If the assessments and predictions of experts and betting providers prove correct, the Kiez club will be back in the 2nd Bundesliga in May.
What speaks against St. Pauli in the Bundesliga relegation prediction: the squad. The market value of the team is the lowest of all 18 Bundesliga clubs.
What’s more, they only scored 28 goals last season – no other team scored fewer. Their weak offense could be a problem.
But with commitment, determination, and passion, the Hamburg team fought hard to stay above the line last season. And with only 41 goals conceded, St. Pauli had the second-best defense in the Bundesliga. If the defense holds up this season, it would be a big help.
Another factor in favor of the Kiez kickers is that there are three teams of equal strength in Heidenheim and, nominally speaking, Cologne and Hamburg. This means that St. Pauli could end up in 15th place. Especially if one or two other teams slip down the table.
Another factor in Hamburg’s favor in the Bundesliga relegation forecast is that they know from last season how brutal the relegation battle can be. This experience could help them.
Bundesliga relegation forecast: Will Union be caught?
Will the 2025/26 Bundesliga chapter come to an end for Union Berlin with relegation? After promotion to the Bundesliga, it was all smooth sailing for Union Berlin for years – all the way to the Champions League.
In the last two seasons, however, the Köpenickers have found themselves back in their natural habitat – in the lower half of the table, close to the relegation zone. They finished 13th last season.
The gap to the relegation places was comfortable, but they couldn’t afford to rest on their laurels. Union themselves are well aware of that.
It will be difficult to predict how well 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV will perform on their return and whether Heidenheim will be stronger than last season. And things could get tight for the capital club, which is currently in 14th place in the “Bundesliga market value table.”
Bundesliga relegation forecast: Who could be involved?
Mainz 05 has been in the Bundesliga since the 2009/2010 season. During this period, they have finished in the top ten six times. After finishing 13th in 2024, Mainz finished 6th last season, which means European football!
And that is precisely where the danger could lie – just look at Heidenheim last season! That is why Mainz is sometimes mentioned in Bundesliga relegation predictions.
A second Bundesliga regular is FC Augsburg.
From 2019 to 2023, FCA finished 15th three times and 14th twice. The last two seasons have been slightly better, with 11th place in 2024 and 12th place last season.
With new coach Sandro Wagner, the club wants to have nothing to do with the relegation zone. Internally, all eyes are on the top.
Will a “big name” be caught out?
Almost every season, a club appears at the bottom of the Bundesliga table that no one really expected to be there. It’s usually a team with a “big” name.
Who will slip into the relegation zone this time? Which team with other ambitions will have to fight to stay up this time?
TSG Hoffenheim found themselves at the bottom of the table last season, but the Kraichgauers managed to save themselves by finishing 15th. If you take the squad value as a benchmark, TSG should have nothing to do with relegation – but that was no different last season.
Borussia Mönchengladbach is a name that appears in the Bundesliga relegation predictions that was not really expected there in the run-up to the season. Especially not after last season’s finish. But things are not going according to plan in the Lower Rhine region.
The situation is not much different at VfL Wolfsburg. Due mainly to recurring fluctuations in performance, the “Wolves” could possibly slip into the relegation zone.
And if you take market values as a reference, Werder Bremen could also be in the lower half of the table…
