Wimbledon, 1st round, Tuesday, 02.07.2024, 12:00
Tournament start for Alexander Zverev at Wimbledon! Germany’s tennis ace meets Roberto Carballes Baena in round one. It will be the second duel between the two players. They previously met on the red clay of Madrid in 2023, with the better outcome for Zverev.
He is also the heavy favorite in the second duel. The best bookmakers agree that it will only be a question of the score.
I am clearly convinced that the Hamburg-born player will win 3:0 and as he is one of the strongest defensive players, I also think he can avoid the tiebreak. Bet365 enables the combination using the betting configurator!
He was still rehabilitating when he played Carballes Baena for the first time. Zverev was back on court in Madrid last year just a few months after suffering a serious ligament injury.
At 6-7, 7-5, 6-0, he was still on his way to regaining his original form, which the reigning Olympic champion has since rediscovered. He reached the semi-finals in the first major of the year. He had Daniil Medvedev on the brink of defeat.
In Paris, he was beaten by Carlos Alcaraz in the final. The “unfinished” player is therefore still waiting for his first Grand Slam title. He will now make his next attempt on the sacred grass. At the most prestigious tournament of the year, he is regarded as the fourth power
The gap between Zverev and the top 3 Jannik Sinner, Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic is already enormous according to the odds, which is also due to the fact that Zverev doesn’t feel so comfortable on grass. Clay and hard courts suit his style of play better.
He has particular problems with the low bouncing balls on the green surface. He still gets a lot of free points thanks to his strong first serve, which he plays most consistently over the net of all the players on tour. He averages 73 percent.
His opponent Carballes Baena (26.0) will also have to nibble at this. A win for the Spaniard would be like a miracle. Zverev gets a 1.006 from Bet365.
A 1.27 awaits for an outright 3:0 win. Things only get really interesting if the tie-break is excluded. Using the betting configurator, Bet365 offers us mixed odds of 1.67, a good choice. In addition, the matches are streamed live on the website, a good alternative to a Prime Video subscription.
More: At Bet365, you no longer pay betting tax as of this year, leaving you with five percent more profit. This is another reason why Bet365 is one of our absolute top betting providers, which also has a huge range of offers for the European Championship matches.
There was no major preparation phase for either player. Zverev played in Halle and Carballes Baena played in Mallorca. The world number four had to retire in the semi-final against Hubert Hurkacz.
Carballes Baena first took his compatriot Pablo Carrena-Busta out of the field, but then clearly lost out to Gael Monfils. He only managed to get 48 percent of his first serves over the net in the defeat and did not manage a significantly better rate in the second round either
In general, he does not have a good win rate on grass. He has played 24 matches, leaving the court victorious only eight times. Last year, he made it into the second round of Wimbledon for the first time ever.
Although Zverev is still untitled on grass, he has already reached the final in Halle twice, with the round of 16 at Wimbledon in 2021 and 2017 being the highest of emotions. Compared to Carballes Baena, he has a much better repertoire on grass.
I expect far fewer problems in Zverev’s service games, who should also regularly get into Carballes Baena’s break regions thanks to his passive but safe return position
My Carballes Baena Zverev tip
A win rate of 33.3 percent on grass, only every second first serve is successful. Carballes Baena would have to offer more to be a threat to Zverev. He can take heart from the first duel in Madrid 2023.
Back then, he was on course for victory after winning the first set and a break in the second round. However, Zverev was in much weaker form at the time and the German also has much more quality on the fast green.
What kind of match can we expect? I expect the favorite to win many quick service games and at the same time Zverev should constantly get into the break regions in Carballes Baena’s service games.
My Carballes Baena Zverev tip: 3:0 Zverev & no tiebreak
