La Liga, Saturday, 23.11.2024 at 21:00
Injury worries at Barcelona are increasingly reminiscent of last season. Before the international break, the Catalans suffered their second defeat against Real Sociedad. Now they face an away game at Celta Vigo.
I’m not really convinced of a three-pointer due to the personnel problems. However, the 1X is also too hot for me, which is why I have picked the goal of both teams at Merkur Bets at over 2.5 goals.
Marc-Andre ter Stegen, Andreas Christensen, Marc Bernal, Lamine Yamal, Ferran Torres, Ansu Fati and probably also Roland Araujo will not be available to Hansi Flick on Saturday against Celta Vigo.
The system will have to be tinkered with again ahead of a difficult away game. After all, Celta Vigo have only lost two home games and have scored the fourth most goals in La Liga with 20
Despite the absentees, the visitors still have the edge in terms of quality, which is why Barcelona are favorites with Betano and Co. at 1.70, Celta Vigo at 4.50 and the draw just below that (4.25).
The Catalans, who started the season so successfully, recently conceded a 1-0 defeat to Real Sociedad and were unable to show much going forward after going behind in the 33rd minute.
I expect a reaction after the international break, but it will be difficult to keep a clean sheet against Vigo. Araujo may be fit again shortly before the game, but if he is used, it won’t be for the full 90 minutes.
The defensive solution will be a compromise against a team that has the most shots on goal in the league with 53. Barcelona lead the field in dominant fashion, with 87 and are well ahead with 40 goals scored.
However, they have not kept a clean sheet in their last three games. Before the 0:1 against San Sebastian, Barcelona won 3:1 against city rivals Espanyol and celebrated a 5:2 victory against Belgrade in the Champions League.
Before that, Robert Lewandowski’s team beat Sevilla (5:1), Bayern (4:1) and Real (4:0), keeping a clean sheet just once in their last six matches.
The bookmakers are offering odds of around 1.50 for both teams to score, but they are a little too low for me. That’s why I’m adding the over 2.5 goals above for much better odds of 1.73 at Merkur Bets.
This also makes sense because, compared to the single bet, only the 1:1 is not covered, which Barcelona have not even had this season. In general, no match of the league leaders has ever ended in a draw. Not even in the Champions League.
The double chance 12 could be considered, which is in the 1.25 range at Bet365 and is suitable as a combination variant on a football-rich Saturday.
Celta Vigo have drawn twice so far. The team is in mid-table with 17 points and is closer to the European places than the relegation places.
Two league defeats against Real Madrid (1:2) and Leganes (0:3) were followed by a resounding 5:1 in the cup against the underdog San Pedro and a 1:0 against Getafe. Most recently, Celta shared the points with Betis Sevilla (2:2).
Unlike Flick, Claudio Giraldez, who took over as head coach in March, can call on almost the entire squad. Only Jailson and Luca de la Torre are resting.
Both teams score and over 2.5 goals, was the right choice in the previous three duels. In 2023/2024, Barcelona prevailed 2:1 and 3:2. The third-last match was also close, which Vigo won 2:1.
The teams have played 120 matches, with Barcelona winning just over half of them, 28 of them ending in draws and Celta winning 24. The average of 3.39 goals per match is impressive!
Conclusion: Barcelona travel to Vigo with injuries, in this constellation I don’t dare to bet on the visitors to win. The 1.70 shows that the bookmakers are not completely convinced either.
Instead, I expect a few goals from the two teams that have the highest percentage of shots on goal and love attacking soccer.
Incidentally, Barca and Celta are also the two teams with the most goals per match! A Merkur Bets registration is also a hit, because with this bookie you will receive a €25 free bet in addition to the new customer bonus when you deposit €1.
My Celta Vigo Barcelona tip: Both teams will score & over 2.5 goals
