NBA Playoffs 2023/24, Conference Finals, Game 1, Wednesday, 22.05.2024
The tension is about to reach boiling point in Germany as the home European Championship 2024 is just around the corner. However, the same also applies to basketball fans on both sides of the pond, as the 2024 NBA play-offs are now entering their hottest phase.
The first game of the “semi-final series” in the Eastern Conference promises to be extremely exciting.
Furthermore, my Celtics Pacers prediction also gave me the opportunity to torpedo the bookies’ assessments with a customized handicap bet
It’s a really exciting series coming up! The Celtics have only lost two games in the postseason so far and are also blessed with significantly more playoff experience than their upcoming opponent.
However, the Pacers make up for a considerable part of this deficit with a lot of talent.
In addition, they have overcome the Milwaukee Bucks, possibly the stronger of the two opponents, even if it must be added at this point that the green-and-whites have had a lot of bad luck with injuries.
Meanwhile, I wouldn’t underestimate the Celtics’ home-court advantage in the opening game either, as four of their five season duels went to the respective home team. The bottom line is that Boston won 60% of those encounters
The Pacers will certainly benefit from the absence of Kristaps Porzingis on the other side in the opening game, which will not be unimportant.
Porzingis is an outstanding ring protector and three-point shooter who set career highs in field goal percentage (52%) and effective field goal percentage (59%) this season.
The Latvian even only allowed a 44.3% shooting percentage in the zone, the second-best figure among players who defended at least 300 shots this season.
The 2.21-meter center, who the Celtics signed in the offseason in order to be able to operate more variably against switching defenses in the playoffs, has been out since Game 5 against Miami with a calf injury.
Although he has slowly started to increase his workload in recent weeks, he is expected to miss at least the first two games of this series
With the Bucks and Knicks not playing at their best, Indiana has rarely had to defend against multiple stars at the same time.
This allowed the Pacers to put multiple defenders on Knicks guard Jalen Brunson, just as they effectively pressured Damian Lillard in double coverage in the first round.
The question now, however, is whether Indiana can adequately defend the offensively potent Celtics. If the Pacers try to cover Boston’s outstanding wing players one-on-one, the C’s could quickly enjoy a lot of free throws.
Watch out: No other team in the league sent opponents to the free throw line more often than Indiana this season.
But the Celtics players’ double-doubles could be just as risky. The C’s took and hit more three-point shots than any other team. However, the Pacers allowed fewer attempts and shots from distance than any other team in the regular season.
As you can see, there are a lot of question marks hanging over this series and a lot will only be decided on the floor! Meanwhile, the betting providers make it relatively easy for me to place a Celtics Pacers bet.
Not only because some of them provide some excellent sports betting apps for download, but also because they can encourage me to place a bet primarily through their proclaimed Celtics Pacers odds.
The match is much more even than the betting markets would have you believe at the moment. The approximately 4.50 offered for a win for the visitors deserves much more attention.
And even if an opening win for the team from Indiana doesn’t quite appeal to you, you still have the option of negotiating a good compromise between risk and payout amount with a handicap bet.
If the Pacers defense is overloaded – whether it’s from doubling players or Boston’s ability to spread the court with shooters – rebounding could become crucial, much like it did in the conference semifinals between New York and Indiana.
Boston will take similar, possibly more efficient countermeasures than New York.
The Pacers, who at times had great difficulty keeping the Knicks off the offensive board, could therefore easily lose the battle for the open ball against the C’s as well.
Indiana only ranked 26th in defensive rebounding percentage in the regular season anyway.
What’s more, by halftime of Game 5 in the last series, the Knicks had collected more offensive rebounds than the Pacers had in total rebounds.
Conclusion: The C’s enter as clear favorites, but only in theory.
The bookmakers are of course setting their odds based on these considerations, but in my view there is considerable doubt that the Bostonians will actually be successful in practice.
Defending Tatum and Brown at the same time will not be easy, but the absence of Porzingis will take a lot of pressure off the Pacers, who would otherwise also lose a significant number of rebounds.
Considering the very one-sided Celtics Pacers odds, it is therefore worth proceeding as follows on your own betting slip: Indiana to win with handicap +10.5.
