NFL 2024/25: Chiefs – Bills
What did I tell you several weeks ago in my Wild Card weekend prediction?
I quote verbatim: “In fact, I am firmly convinced that we will see the Chiefs and the Bills face off against each other in the AFC Championship match again this season.”
Two weeks later, the time has come. And in my Chiefs Bills tip for the annual AFC showdown, I also have a very clear outcome in mind.
I will explain to you why roughly the same applies to Kansas City this Monday as it does to Bayern Munich professional Thomas Müller.
The Kansas City Chiefs are known for excelling in the playoffs, but their most recent victory over the Houston Texans raises some uncomfortable questions.
Although they advanced, they showed unusual weaknesses on offense and had to rely on strong performances from defense and special teams.
They had particular problems in the red zone, only converting two of five chances into touchdowns. Nevertheless, Arrowhead Stadium remains an impregnable fortress that repeatedly comes to the Chiefs’ aid at the crucial moments.
Furthermore, Kansas City is simply a team that adapts to the opponent and finds its way into the game.
In soccer, there is a saying that always makes me smile: “Thomas Müller doesn’t beat you with his ball control. He doesn’t beat you with his speed or outstanding dribbling skills either. He just beats you.”
In a modified form, I would say somewhat cynically about the Chiefs at this point: “Their offense is not as explosive as that of the Bills, their quarterback is not as mobile as that of the Eagles, and their running game is not as dominant as that of the Ravens.
But they still beat you in the end – year after year!
Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills did not have an outstanding performance in the Divisional Round – quite the opposite.
Josh Allen and his team had a hard time getting into the game against the Ravens, which was reflected in a modest offensive output of just 4.6 yards per play.
But Buffalo proved that they can also decide games defensively, with important turnovers and clever tactical adjustments.
But it is also true that Mark Andrews made two serious and unnecessary mistakes on the Ravens’ side, which ultimately cost his team the game. I am thinking, of course, of the fumble in the final quarter and the drop on the final 2-point conversion. Ouch!
In this encounter, however, two teams will face each other that are no longer as explosive offensively as they have been in previous years, but are setting new defensive trends.
The Chiefs have kept the “under” six times in their last seven home playoff games, and this time, too, the game could be characterized more by tactical maneuvers than by spectacular points.
Incidentally, the sports betting providers see Kansas City narrowly ahead, but Buffalo knows how to stand up to Mahomes & Co.
The Bills actually beat KC 30-21 in the regular season, inflicting their only defeat of the season so far, but in my opinion this victory is of little significance.
Kansas City could afford this loss and at home in the Arrowhead they can be expected to put in a much more committed performance than in Week 11 in a playoff match.
I recommend a special Chiefs Bills tip that you can add to my actual betting tip at any time as an additional condition to achieve even higher odds.
For this, for example, the Bwin app is available to you, but also any other sports betting app that has been thoroughly tested by my betting friends.
At this point, I would specifically refer you to a Bet365 sports bet, according to which a total of “Over 2.5 Field Goals” will be kicked at odds of currently 1.55.
In difficult weather conditions, it is better to call the kicker onto the field before you get into trouble in this close match with a failed 4th attempt. Do you want to hear something interesting about this?
In the past three AFC Championship duels between the two teams – all of which took place at almost exactly the same time of the year – at least three field goals were always scored.
In short: in these make-or-break games, head coaches prefer to play it safe when in doubt.
Conclusion: Of the last seven direct duels, the Bills have won four, but the Chiefs have won the championship game every time.
That pretty much sums up my Chiefs Bills tip. Because when push comes to shove, the defending champions are in a class of their own at the Arrowhead in a meaningful playoff game of this magnitude.
And since I learned last week at the latest that the “Electric Company” itself is no different, I certainly don’t expect that trend to change much.
My tip: KC reaches the final!
