NFL 2025/26: Chiefs – Commanders Prediction, Stats & Odds
The Commanders are heading straight for crisis: their defense is one of the worst in the NFL, they have lost twice in a row, and quarterback Jayden Daniels is out of Monday night’s important game due to a thigh injury.
Accordingly, the sports betting providers have assessed the situation correctly.
Given this favorable starting position for the host, the betting odds for a Chiefs Commanders tip at Arrowhead are almost inevitably gravitating toward a low value of 1.15.
But don’t worry – even with a significant handicap cushion for the visitors, you shouldn’t significantly reduce your chances of success at the betting office. That’s because crisis-stricken Washington will have its defense on the field for about 80% of the total playing time.
Chiefs vs. Commanders predictions:
The computer-generated suggestion of a Chiefs win with HC -20.5 is a good deal more aggressive than my own Chiefs Commanders tip from the headline, but at odds of around 3.30 it is also significantly more lucrative and not necessarily less likely.
That’s because the currently highly productive Chiefs offense has scored an incredible 126 points in its last four games – the highest point total Kansas City has ever put on the scoreboard in a four-game period since weeks 4 to 7 of the 2022 season!
So if the Commanders aren’t careful, things could end up badly for them!
Marquise Brown with a touchdown at odds of around 3.75 at Bet365 is another AI suggestion that also stands up to statistical scrutiny. Brown has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last six home games in October!
I also consider Deebo Samuel with touchdown odds of around 3.10 to be a great player bet. With the Commanders struggling, they will be looking to their reliable all-purpose weapon on offense.
Especially since he can usually be relied upon! Samuel has scored a TD in each of his last four NFL away games, which also underlines how much the head coach trusts him on every offensive play.
What you need to consider when betting on Chiefs vs. Commanders
- Deebo Samuel has scored a touchdown in each of his last 4 away games.
- Marquise Brown has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last 6 home games in October.
- Patrick Mahomes has had at least 24 completions in each of the Chiefs’ last 7 Monday games.
- The Commanders have won each of their last 4 Monday games as underdogs.
- The Chiefs have lost 3 of their last 4 games against NFC East opponents.
- The Chiefs have won each of their last 11 home games against NFC opponents who were on a losing streak.
- The Commanders have lost each of their last six road games against AFC West opponents who were on a winning streak.
