Cologne – St. Pauli Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 13 on Saturday, 06/12/2025 at 15:30 CET
Do you want to place a Köln St. Pauli bet on a victory for the goats? Then it’s best to secure a Winamax odds boost and also get the necessary backing from me.
Because I would do it the same way! The Cologne odds are already attractive enough with an average of 1.98, and the upcoming opponent seems to be made for this promising 1X2 bet.
While the Kiezkicker are looking forward to their tenth Bundesliga defeat in a row, the promoted team is usually a force to be reckoned with at the Rheinenergiestadion: they score 2.6 goals per appearance here.
If everything goes according to plan, they will play out their home bonus and promote the Boys in Brown to last place in the table.
As promised, you will get a tailwind from me for your very own Cologne St. Pauli tip – and in the form of facts!
Because 1. FC Cologne is unbeaten in the last six competitive games against the Kiezkicker, winning the last five of them in a row (all in the 2nd Bundesliga).
This is currently the longest winning streak of the goats against a Bundesliga club. However, the upcoming duel is the first meeting since February 2019, when Cologne celebrated a clear 4-1 win at home.
Cologne – St. Pauli Prediction & Betting
Said El Mala scores against the Kiezkicker is one of my personal Cologne St. Pauli bets at odds around 3.90, which I made early in the week.
Let that melt in your mouth: The teenager has already scored more goals after 12 Bundesliga matchdays (5) than in his entire third division season 2024/25 (3).
2nd half: Cologne over 0.5 goals at odds around 1.57, on the other hand, is a somewhat safe suggestion – if only because the final quarter of an hour is the peak phase of Cologne’s offensive drive.
Watch out: The goats have already scored 11 Bundesliga goals within the last 15 minutes of the game – a league high!
What you need to know about Cologne vs. St. Pauli betting
- Cologne has scored an average of 2.6 goals per home game this season. Cologne’s attack should score against St. Pauli, who have not kept a clean sheet in their last ten Bundesliga games.
- St. Pauli’s xG value (expected goals) of 11.4 is the lowest in the Bundesliga. In the current series of nine defeats in a row, St. Pauli scored an average of only 0.5 goals per game.
- The bet “Both teams to score – Yes” has been successful in Cologne’s last five competitive games. This bet also won in all five of Cologne’s league home games (with an average of 4.4 goals per game).
- The 19-year-old Said El Mala (5 goals) scored more goals this Bundesliga season than after 12 matchdays of the previous season in the third division (3 goals).
Cologne – St. Pauli: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Due to the statistically favorable starting position, our Cologne St. Pauli AI prediction has apparently fallen in love with football bets that assume several goals at the same time – at least two to three.
The selection Make both – Yes is recommended to you, among other things, because each of Cologne’s last five very entertaining competitive games has already met this requirement.
If you combine this suggestion with my Cologne St. Pauli bet on a home win, you could also think about taking out a chic combination bet of the type Sieg Köln & BTS at a significantly higher 3.75 at a betting provider without tax.
Meanwhile, you can use our AI’s reference to the high xG value of the Kiezkicker of 20.27 xGA, the fifth highest in the Bundesliga, for other betting options with different risk levels.
Our data model supports the 2:1 result bet at odds around 9.00 and the somewhat more vague variant Cologne: Over 1.5 goals to about 1.93.
Both are sensible suggestions, depending on how much risk you want to take. In fact, I also oscillate strongly between a 2:1 and a 3:1 for the Effzeh.
The best odds for Cologne vs. St. Pauli
Let’s take a look at the Cologne St. Pauli odds and the bookmakers’ assessment: The numbers reflect a duel that seems anything but boring despite a clear distribution of roles.
A home win for 1. FC Köln is currently rated at 1.93. The bookmakers see the goats in the lead, with the odds signalling that they are by no means considered overpowering. Factors such as home advantage, solid form and the ability to determine the pace of the game are strongly influenced here.
The draw is 3.70. The bookmakers are thus calculating a scenario in which St. Pauli remains defensively compact and Cologne does not get through in all phases – a realistic but secondary result from the point of view of the markets.
For an away win of St. Pauli there is 3.80. This gives the Hamburg team respectable chances, but the outsider role clearly remains. The odds reflect the possibility that St. Pauli will score points with a clever course of play, but are not favourites.
Overall, the Cologne St. Pauli odds paint a picture in which Cologne is slightly preferred, but leaves enough room for surprises for the Kiezkicker – a market that is interesting for tactically oriented value bets.
Cologne vs St. Pauli Match Analysis:
St. Pauli will try to keep control of the game again, even if they only have 49% possession on average.
Interestingly, the field tilt of 61.77 shows that they still spend a lot of time in the opponent’s half. Cologne, on the other hand, is at 45.01 – which means that the hosts will run after the ball more often.
I could imagine St. Pauli building up a lot of pressure, especially on the wings, to create chances. Cologne will try to keep up the tempo and switch quickly when they lose the ball in order to crack the high defense of the guests.
St. Pauli’s defense looks shaky defensively: the fifth-highest defense value in the league is rather symbolic, because Blessin’s team does not win the ball back effectively.
Cologne will take advantage of that, get down the wings quickly and maybe take the lead early on. St. Pauli could change after falling behind and take more risks, which makes the game really open.
With Cologne at home, where there are often a lot of goals, I expect at least seven or eight big chances on each side. This could be a back-and-forth, pretty wild game with both teams scoring.
Cologne Form Check
Cologne have not won in their last three Bundesliga games, but are still solid with a seven-point gap to the relegation zone.
Their strong start to the season is paying off: According to our data model, the team should be relaxed about staying in the league and end up in 12th place with around 40 points.
Things are going especially well at home – they have scored 13 goals in five home games!
The last two home games were also high-scoring: three goals against Frankfurt, four against HSV. It’s clear that Cologne are extremely dangerous at home and can turn every game around.
But the team is also fighting away from home. Last week, they secured the equaliser in Bremen in the 92nd minute through Said El Mala.
As already mentioned, they have already scored 11 goals in the last 15 minutes this season – only Bayern have been more effective.
Despite the current short dry spell, Cologne looks stable, clever in finishing and with a lot of speed going forward. If they stop the series soon, they could really pick up speed again and continue to play to their home strength.
St. Pauli Form Check
St. Pauli is currently in an extremely tough phase: Nine Bundesliga defeats in a row mean a new club record and the second-longest losing streak by a Bundesliga team since Union Berlin 2023.
After the 3-1 defeat against Bayern, they are in penultimate place with only seven points. Compared to the previous season, four points are already missing after twelve matchdays.
According to our data model, direct relegation is imminent, with less than 30 points at the end. The home games are going better overall, but away from home it is massively snagging – only four goals and ten goals conceded so far.
Despite the crisis, the Hamburgers are also showing resilience. In the DFB Cup, they recently won 2-1 at Gladbach and eliminated Hoffenheim, which gives a bit of hope.
Offensively, they have scored in four of the last six games. However, the defence remains vulnerable, especially away from home.
Even though the Bundesliga is tough at the moment, the team shows commitment until the end, as the late cup winner against Gladbach proves.
If they keep this mentality, they could at least create individual surprises and maybe finally stop the negative series.
