Koln – Stuttgart Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 5 on Sunday, 09/27/2025 at 5:30 p.m.
The Billy Goats have coped extremely well with their first setback of the season, at least in terms of the table; after their 3-1 defeat at RB Leipzig, the promoted team is still in a Champions League spot.
Of course, the Rhinelanders want this to remain the case after only their second home game of the season. After a furious 4-1 win against Freiburg, Effzeh is now looking forward to welcoming the other EL starter from the Neckar with optimism.
However, a glance at the best betting apps reveals that the betting providers have slight doubts in this regard. I am also taking a cautious approach in my Cologne vs. Stuttgart prediction, but I believe the home side will put in another impressive performance, at least in offensive terms.
While the bookmakers are predicting an away win for the Swabians, statisticians are finding it much more difficult to pick a favorite. After all, the relevant data primarily reveals the respective weaknesses.
In the Cologne vs. Stuttgart prediction, the Billy Goats face a long-standing nemesis against whom they have won only one of their last 14 home games (7 defeats).
VfB, on the other hand, is currently struggling not only with away games in view of the defeats suffered in Berlin and Freiburg. The southern Germans have also been regularly beaten by league newcomers in recent years.
Although the corresponding record has recently improved somewhat, the Brustringträger have only managed to win six of their last 26 matches against promoted teams.
Koln – Stuttgart prediction & betting
When analyzing my Cologne vs. Stuttgart prediction, I quickly got the feeling that the bookies might be a little too optimistic about VfB’s chances of success.
In my opinion, a draw would be more in line with the performances of both teams so far, and the double chance 1X at an acceptable odds of around 1.57 adequately offsets the associated risk.
With at least two goals from 1. FC Cologne at odds of 2.10, this should definitely be expected. It is no coincidence that only FC Bayern and Eintracht Frankfurt have scored more often than the cathedral city team (9x) so far this season.
It is also noteworthy that Cologne scored four of its goals in the final quarter of an hour. Since VfB also conceded three of its five goals in the same period, the tip “last goal Cologne” is also a promising choice.
What you need to consider when betting on Cologne vs. Stuttgart
- 1. FC Cologne has won only one of its last 14 Bundesliga home games against VfB Stuttgart (6D 7L), winning 1-0 in December 2021.
- Against promoted teams, VfB Stuttgart has won three of its last six Bundesliga games (2D 1L), which is as many wins as in the previous 20 such matches combined.
- VfB last started a Bundesliga season with two defeats in their first two away games in 2017/18. VfB last suffered three consecutive Bundesliga away defeats during the 2023/24 winter break (3).
- 1. FC Köln has scored four goals in the final quarter of an hour of this Bundesliga season, as many as SC Freiburg (also 4). Opponents VfB Stuttgart have conceded three of their five goals in this Bundesliga season from the 76th minute onwards, with only 1. FC Union Berlin conceding more (5) across the league.
Koln – Stuttgart: AI tip & odds analysis
Now, our in-house AI is not exactly known for emotional outbursts, but with a little goodwill, the Cologne Stuttgart tips provided here suggest that the artificial intelligence is looking forward to the second Sunday game.
With over 3.5 goals, the AI tip is even more decisive than I am in predicting a spectacular game; if successful, odds of around 2.30 can be expected.
In my opinion, you’re not risking too much if you follow this suggestion immediately. I also had this prediction on my list, but then decided to play it safe with one goal less.
The Cologne Stuttgart AI tip Double Chance X2 & both teams to score also seems to be playing it safe, with odds of just under 2.00.
If I had to make a decision, I would give Cologne, the official underdogs, a slight advantage, which is why I refuse to follow this suggestion.
The same applies to the bold result prediction. VfB Stuttgart’s 3-1 victory at odds of 15.0 brings together all the previous assumptions, but for this very reason, I find it far too speculative – and therefore likely to be a case for a freebet at best.
The best odds for Koln vs. Stuttgart
While our artificial intelligence estimates the visitors’ chances of success at over 50 percent, the Cologne vs. Stuttgart odds offered by betting providers are much less clear-cut.
With a round 2.3, VfB has to settle for a noticeably weaker position as favorites, which is why Effzeh also has quite respectable chances of success with odds of around 2.75.
However, if the game ends in a draw, those betting on a draw can expect impressive odds of around 3.70. Since the teams seem to be quite close to each other, such a draw does not sound unrealistic at all.
In fact, one would have to aim for a victory for the visitors if one takes into account the aforementioned chances of success determined by AI.
Those who see value here can, after consulting with the statisticians, even take the resulting VfB tip to the extreme by applying a countercyclical approach.
Although Effzeh has been scoring almost at will in recent weeks, the fact that they have only managed one goal in their last four home games against Stuttgart means that even a 0-0 win for the visitors at odds of around 4.80 seems like a reasonable choice.
Cologne vs Stuttgart match analysis:
In Stuttgart, the hope is that a perfect English week will finally turn the tide in the desired direction. However, the victories celebrated against St. Pauli and Celte de Vigo have a small catch in this regard.
Since both successes were achieved on home turf, the away record remains sobering. For the first time since 2017, the Swabians started the season with two away defeats.
At that time, it soon became clear that things could always get worse. Under Hannes Wolf, the Swabians only gradually started to pick up points after six consecutive away defeats.
However, the hosts from Cologne also want to benefit from VfB’s busy week, as they are in excellent physical condition for the Bundesliga.
At least that’s what the four goals scored in the final quarter of an hour suggest. If Cologne can now step up again against Stuttgart in crunch time, this could cause the visitors a few problems, especially given their personnel situation.
1. FC Koln form check
As their 4th place in the table reveals, Cologne are having little trouble adjusting to their return to the Bundesliga. Even in their first defeat in Leipzig a week ago, the Rhinelanders put in a respectable performance.
However, in my opinion, there is a danger that the team’s current style of play will increasingly work against them. Their consistent offensive approach certainly took its toll in their last few games.
While the three goals conceded in Wolfsburg were just about compensated for, the three goals conceded in Leipzig were definitely too much of a bad thing.
Against VfB Stuttgart, the Billy Goats will therefore probably work on their compactness so that they don’t come away empty-handed again after another good performance.
Stuttgart form check
Stuttgart threatened to mess up the start of the new season, but their recent victories have lifted the mood – and they will be desperate to continue their run away from home for the first time.
In this endeavor, the Swabians can probably count themselves lucky that the season is still in its infancy, which means that the unfortunate absences should be relatively easier to compensate for.
VfB Stuttgart’s injury list is much longer than that of Effzeh. Justin Diehl, Leonidas Stergiou, and Silas will be missing in Cologne. Deniz Undav is also out for several weeks with a knee injury.
Luca Jaquez’s participation is questionable, but Max Mittelstadt is expected to start after his recovery.
Ermedin Demirovic goes into the game in excellent form and will lead the Stuttgart attack. He will be supported by Bilal El Khannouss, who also performed well in the 2-0 win against St. Pauli.
