US Open, quarter-finals, Tuesday, 03.09.2024, 18:30
Grigor Dimitrov or Frances Tiafoe will be Alexander Zverev’s semi-final opponent at the US Open if the German wins his own quarter-final against Taylor Fritz. Tiafoe and Dimitrov have met twice before at a Grand Slam.
In New York, this matchup will take place for the first time. With this pairing, it was immediately clear to me that Betano and Co. would find it difficult to pick a favorite. In my eyes, it is impossible to make a realistic bet on a winner.
Instead, in a duel between two strong servers who are on a similar level, I reckon we’ll see at least one tie-break
3:1 for Dimitrov after four games against Tiafoe. However, most of the duels took place some time ago. Only the third-round match at Wimbledon took place this decade. The Bulgarian dominated on grass. There was also a thrashing for Tiafoe in Chicago in 2018.
However, the 26-year-old won the most important duel, the round of 16 at Melbourne 2019. They played out four long sets in the only hard court major duel, twice going to a tie-break: 7-5, 7-6, 6-7, 7-5.
The two current top 20 players also went to a double tie-break in their first duel in Toronto in 2018, with Dimitrov winning both but needing a third set. The outdoor hard court matches were tough
Therefore, let’s take a look at the overset bets. Winamax provides top odds for this market. However, the 1.45 for over 3.5 runs is only combination ticket material for me, ultimately still great odds that will certainly fall towards the start of the match.
The winning odds already indicate that this match is unlikely to be a straightforward sweep. Dimitrov is a wafer-thin 1.75 ahead of local hero Tiafoe (2.10). Depending on the bookmaker, the gaps are sometimes bigger, sometimes smaller.
If you want to place a winner bet, unlike me, keep an eye on the bets from Betano. There are super odds waiting for various tennis matches, slightly higher odds that can still be played with a high stake
Over 3.5 sets? Tiebreak in the match? Both are great bets for me. To limit the risk, I advise you to select only one. Alternatively, you can use the Bet365 betting configurator for 1.87 total odds.
With Bet365 and Winamax, by the way, you will have five percent more profit, as the betting tax is paid by the provider itself. Both platforms also have a livestream feature that allows you to watch all US Open matches, which are unfortunately no longer broadcast on Eurosport free-to-air TV, free of charge.
Apart from the close hard-court matches between Tiafoe and Dimitrov, what else speaks in favor of a tiebreak? The duels have already shown that both players know how to win points quickly from their serves. There weren’t many breaks back then in Melbourne and Toronto
In addition, there is no discernible form advantage. A few months ago, I would have clearly recommended a Dimitrov victory, who has consistently delivered top performances throughout the year and is ranked ninth in the world. 25 wins from 32 hardcourt matches.
The US-American had a difficult phase, but was able to get himself in shape in time for the US Open, the most important tournament for him. First he reached the semi-finals in Washington and two weeks later was allowed to play his first Masters final against Jannik Sinner.
In Ben Shelton and Alexei Popyrin, he took two tough opponents out of the field. Incidentally, there was a tie-break in both rounds.
Dimitrov still had a few problems after his Wimbledon injury, but was back up to speed in time for the last Grand Slam tournament, taking out Andrey Rublev in the round of 16, which also included a tiebreak
My Dimitrov Tiafoe tip
Two times Dimitrov and Tiafoe faced each other on the outside on hard courts, twice the fans in the stands were treated to a close match with long sets and tiebreaks galore.
Both players served consistently. 79 out of 99 points after Dimitrov’s serves against Rublev went to the Bulgarian. However, Tiafoe also knows how to place his serves in order to finally close out the point after the first or second shot at the latest.
On average, neither player conceded more than one service game per set in New York. Due to the better running game, the home advantage and the irrepressible will to win his favorite tournament, I see Tiafoe slightly ahead.
In my opinion, however, the safer option in this matchup is the tiebreak odds, which land on my betting slip.
My Dimitrov Tiafoe tip: Tiebreak in the match
