Dortmund – Atalanta Tip Champions League, playoffs, first leg on Tuesday, 17.02.2026 at 21:00 CET
Have you read my latest tip on the strong performance of the Bergamo team in Serie A? Truly, correct predictions of this kind about my favorite team make my heart beat almost as fast as a good sports betting bonus.
However, successful bets are even more important to me than my membership in the Bergamo fan club. Consequently, I decided on a Dortmund Atalanta bet on BVB, for which there are odds of around 2.00 on average on the betting markets.
The reasons for this are simply too obvious. Because Borussia, who are strong at home, recently swept over Mainz 05 like a whirlwind and won 4-0, are rightly the clear favourites for this play-off first leg!
Not least because BVB have lost their three Champions League home games since the start of the 2022/23 season exclusively against world-class clubs such as Real Madrid, FC Barcelona and Inter Milan. And unfortunately I don’t count Bergamo among them at the moment.
A good omen for my Dortmund Atalanta tip is certainly the direct comparison, but nothing more, as the two matches were a long time ago and therefore have only limited significance.
After all, BVB and Bergamo last met in European competition many years ago, with the Germans prevailing 4-3 on aggregate in the Europa League intermediate round in February 2018.
Dortmund – Atalanta Bergamo Prediction & Betting Tips
By the way, the selection Dortmund over 1.5 goals, for which there is a single bet of about 1.78 in case of success, would be the perfect complement to my main tip from the headline.
This bet would have been successful in 7 of Borussia’s last 8 home games and in my eyes also enjoys very good chances of success on Tuesday. Especially when BVB start the game as furiously as they did recently against Mainz!
And precisely because I’m so sure of experiencing an early Black and Yellow lead like against the Nullfünfer, I also have my sights firmly set on the Dortmund/Dortmund scenario with significantly higher betting odds of 3.10 on average.
Bergamo have caught up in recent weeks, but I don’t think Borussia will be outsmarted in the same way as Cremonese (2-1) or Lazio (2-0) recently were in Serie A.
What you need to know about Dortmund vs. Atalanta Bergamo betting
- Home fortress Westfalenstadion: Since the 2022/23 season, BVB have lost only three of 22 home games in the Champions League (against Real, Barca and Inter) and concede an average of less than one goal per game.
- Creativity problems at “La Dea”: Atalanta disappointed with only two shots on target in the 1-0 defeat against Union SG – coach Raffaele Palladino will also have to do without the injured Charles De Ketelaere against Niko Kovac’s defensively stable Dortmund team.
- Goal statistics speak for entertainment: Three of Dortmund’s four home games this CL season have cracked the 2.5-goal mark (75%), while Atalanta have reached this figure in 63% of their eight European games so far.
- Guirassy against the efficiency crown: After Serhou Guirassy finished last CL season as the most efficient striker (level with Raphinha), he goes into the duel against Bergamo with a broad chest after his brace in the 4-0 win against Mainz.
Dortmund – Atalanta Bergamo: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
We have an internal data model running that generates predictions on demand that are fed by thousands of data sets. I have already had the Dortmund Atalanta AI forecast made in good time.
For example, I can live very well with the selection Over 2.5 goals as a promising betting recommendation.
Because the odds of an average of 1.67 do not promise a monster payout, but there are many indications of a 2:1, 3:0 or even higher final result of this kind for the host!
In the 2025/26 Champions League phase, BVB already scored an average of 2.38 goals per appearance, whereas Atalanta had a value of 1.25. If you add up these two numbers, almost four goals can be expected on Tuesday!
Do you dare to experience pure thrills? Then the player bet that can be reproduced on every good sports betting app: Guirassy 2+ goals at bombastic Dortmund Atalanta odds of about 7.30 may be something for you!
Guirassy, for example, is credited with his cold-bloodedness in front of goal, as he already converts 29% of his shots into goals – the highest rate of its kind in the Champions League for a player with at least 50 shot attempts.
And precisely because of his five goals in the current month of February, he can really be trusted to do anything in front of his home crowd on Tuesday – yes, even a hat-trick!
The best odds for Dortmund vs. Atalanta Bergamo
The betting markets believe that BVB will be successful, even if the assessment is not quite as exuberant as my own prediction. The Dortmund Atalanta odds point to a moderate role of favorites!
A home win for BVB is estimated at 2.00. The providers pay tribute to the speed, offensive power and power of Signal Iduna Park. Nevertheless, a residual doubt remains, because Atalanta is known for unpleasant course of play.
The draw is priced in at 3.70. This scenario fits a game that could be characterized by tactical adjustments and changing pressure phases – a result that would keep both teams in the race.
An away win for the Bergamo team, on the other hand, is traded at 3.40. The Italians are respected for their courageous style of play and their ability to break down defensive structures. A victory for the guests would therefore by no means be a sensation.
The Dortmund Atalanta odds paint a showdown in which Borussia are given advantages, but Atalanta has enough quality to tip the pendulum at any time.
Dortmund vs Atalanta Bergamo Match Analysis:
I expect an early Sturm und Drang phase of Borussia Dortmund, which could shake up the Bergamo team. BVB will be looking for one-on-one duels and will try to put Serhou Guirassy in finishing positions again and again.
Under Niko Kovac, Dortmund often compensate for their defensive vulnerability with enormous offensive power, which is also shown by the fact that they stand out in the Champions League – as already mentioned – with an average of 2.38 goals scored per game – an absolute top value!
That is precisely why Dortmund should try to take control early and gain a cushion for the difficult second leg in Bergamo.
If Guirassy confirms his rising form, it is quite conceivable that BVB will create several top-class chances early on and keep “La Dea” permanently busy defensively.
In any case, I chose my Dortmund Atalanta bet on 2+ goals from the Guinean with exactly this expectation in mind!
Dortmund Form Check
Borussia Dortmund started the league phase with a spectacular 4-4 draw against Juventus, but then showed a changeable face. In the end, three wins, one draw and three defeats were not enough to make it directly into the top eight.
The away defeats in England against Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur were particularly bitter.
However, Dortmund suffered the decisive setback on the last matchday with a 2-0 home defeat against Inter Milan, which meant that they missed out on a direct entry into the next round.
Nevertheless, Signal Iduna Park remains a fortress internationally. Dortmund have lost only three of their last 22 Champions League home games. However, the record against Italian teams remains problematic, as they have won only one of the last seven duels.
Before the duel with Atalanta Bergamo, there is at least a slight all-clear from the team hospital. Karim Adeyemi is training again and could move into the squad, as well as Yan Couto and Marcel Sabitzer, who are working their way back step by step.
Emre Can and Filippo Mane, on the other hand, will certainly be missing, which could cost BVB stability, especially in the centre.
Atalanta Bergamo Form Check
After the clear 4-0 opening defeat against defending champions Paris Saint-Germain, Atalanta initially looked battered, but then started a strong series and secured their progress early on.
Victories over Club Brugge and Chelsea in their own stadium as well as away successes at Olympique Marseille and Eintracht Frankfurt even raised hopes of direct qualification for the round of 16.
However, the Bergamo team squandered these chances with a home defeat against Athletic Bilbao and a defeat at Union Saint-Gilloise, which once again leaves them with only the detour via the play-offs.
Ahead of the duel with Dortmund, the Italians face some challenges offensively. Ademola Lookman’s move to Atletico Madrid has already left its mark, while further absences further limit the options in attack.
The injured Gianluca Scamacca has been back on the bench recently, but his appearance on Tuesday is by no means guaranteed.
Particularly serious, on the other hand, is the confirmed absence of Charles De Ketelaere, who will miss Atalanta for a long time after a meniscus operation and will leave a gaping hole in terms of game design during the playoffs!
