Champions League, Wednesday, 11.12.2024 at 21:00
Dortmund are known to be comfortable at home and will now do everything in their power to take down the great FC Barcelona, who are currently seeing their lead in the league melt away.
BVB have shown time and again this season under Nuri Sahin that they are a force in their own stadium, and the black and yellow fans will no doubt do everything they can to whip their team to victory again this evening.
In my Dortmund Barcelona betting tip, I’ll be looking to see whether Borussia can really make the most of their home form or whether the Catalans will come out on top after their poor performance in Seville a few days ago.
For Dortmund, it will also be about getting Barcelona off the mark early on. After all, FCB have led for 66% of their entire time in the Champions League this season – the highest percentage of any team after the first five matchdays.
In addition, Hansi Flick’s side have the best goal difference of any team in the competition in the minutes in which they have been in the lead (+8 – 11 goals scored, 3 conceded).
BVB will therefore have to try to prevent a 0:1 within the opening quarter of an hour in order to have a better chance of winning.
Whether they can actually win is revealed at the end of my Dortmund Barcelona prediction
The bookmaker prediction
The Dortmund Barcelona odds reflect an interesting balance of power, whereby Borussia should not be completely without a chance with odds of around 3.20, but compared to FCB with an average of 2.10, they are still classified as slight underdogs.
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KI prediction Dortmund vs Barcelona: ChatGPT
The various Dortmund Barcelona AI prediction tips from ChatGPT regarding this Champions League match offer an interesting set of predictions that reflect different risk levels.
Barcelona winning with a handicap of -1 is not particularly advisable in my view – even if the artificial intelligence has deliberately marked this recommendation as “high-risk”.
This bet is still too bold for me, especially considering BVB’s form on home soil. Under Nuri Sahin, Borussia are simply playing phenomenally well at Signal Iduna Park!
I see Lewandowski with a good chance of scoring in the Dortmund Barcelona betting tip – I’ll present you with some promising data on this in a moment. The medium risk tip that he will score a goal is therefore open to me.
Statistically speaking, the supposedly low bet that Barcelona will score the first goal appears to be an even better choice. The Catalans often take an early lead and their general style of play supports this prediction.
Analysis: Dortmund vs Barcelona
Borussia Dortmund go into the next matchday confident with four wins from five games in the league phase of this year’s Champions League.
Dortmund are currently in a direct place for qualification for the round of 16, but the race is tight: eight teams are within just two points of each other. The clash against Barcelona, who are just ahead of Borussia Dortmund, could therefore point the way forward.
However, the Catalans are not a favorite opponent, as Dortmund has never won against Barcelona (2 draws, 2 defeats).
However, Borussia’s impressive home form this season gives hope, as they have yet to lose at home in all competitions (8 wins, 1 draw).
Barcelona, meanwhile, travel to the Ruhr with a mixed record from their last six competitive matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 2 defeats). The 2-2 draw at Real Betis at the weekend mentioned in the introduction revealed glaring defensive weaknesses.
However, coach Hansi Flick let it slip in the subsequent press conference after the disappointing draw that his team’s focus was already on the key match against BVB.
With his flawless record in personal duels against Dortmund (5 wins), the former German national team coach certainly has the necessary tactical know-how to put Borussia to the sword once again.
Rating Analysis
The odds of 2.05 for “Dortmund over 1.5 goals” are indeed a strong offer based on solid data. BVB have scored at least two goals in almost every home fixture this season – with only two exceptions proving the rule.
With their offensive strength in front of a home crowd, this bet therefore does not appear to be based on sand at all.
The odds of 1.75 for “Double chance 1X” also offer a good risk/reward ratio.
Dortmund are unbeaten at home this season, which further underlines their home advantage. Considering Barcelona’s current poor form, it seems realistic that BVB will at least not lose.
Dortmund vs Barcelona odds: Lewa loves BVB!
A real nightmare for all BVB fans: with 27 goals in 26 matches, Robert Lewandowski is the player who has scored the most goals against Borussia Dortmund.
The Polish striker has scored a total of 9 goals in his last five games against BVB, including in the last three matches at Signal Iduna Park, where he scored 5 times.
Lewa is and remains the terror for Dortmund, even if he has of course lost some of his shine in recent seasons due to his age.
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Goals should be scored on both sides!
There is a tendency to suggest that goals will be scored on both sides. A 1:1 seems possible to me, but a 2:2 or similar high scores are all within the realms of possibility. In any case, BVB will probably not play to nil this time either.
In their last nine matches against Spanish teams in the Champions League, Dortmund have not kept a clean sheet until the end and have conceded 20 goals (2.2 per game).
The 5-2 defeat to Real Madrid this season was particularly painful, when Dortmund led 2-0 at half-time but ultimately lost the game outright.
Furthermore, the Black & Yellows’ attacking power should not be underestimated, even if the bookmakers don’t seem to have that entirely on their radar.
Dortmund have scored 16 goals in the first five UCL matchdays under Nuri Sahin.
Only the teams of Thomas Tuchel (19 goals) and Hans-Dieter Flick (18 goals) scored more goals in their first five games, with both going on to win the Champions League. A good omen then?
You should pay particular attention to Serhou Guirassy in the Dortmund Barcelona betting tip, as he has already been directly involved in six goals for Borussia Dortmund this Champions League season (4 goals, 2 assists).
This is the highest number of goals for the club in the first five games of this competition – on a par with Erling Haaland and Ousmane Dembélé.
My Dortmund Barcelona prediction:
Barcelona have slowed down considerably compared to the first half of the season, while Dortmund remain unpredictable. BVB only managed a 1-1 draw at Gladbach at the weekend, but on a good day in front of a home crowd they can do anything.
The decisive factor will be how they deal with Robert Lewandowski, who has already caused them problems on several occasions. An exciting duel at eye level is guaranteed. In my opinion, both sides could ultimately settle for a 1-1 draw.
My Dortmund Barcelona tip: Double chance 1X & Both teams score
