Champions League, quarter-final, second leg, Tuesday, 04/15/2025 at 9:00 p.m.
It worked once, but not in 159 attempts – it’s time to work a new, gigantic football miracle! In my Dortmund Barcelona betting tip, the situation is actually already clear. After the Catalans’ 4-0 win in the first leg, hardly anyone can imagine that BVB can still turn this duel around.
You can’t really make up a four-goal deficit in a knockout tie, and the only team that’s ever done it was Barcelona themselves. But since the black and yellow will certainly leave no stone unturned and that will create opportunities for the guests, I’m putting the “Both teams score & over 2.5 goals” bet in prospect.
What Barca can do offensively is well known. In addition, coach Hansi Flick rotated his squad a bit, so some stars were able to rest against Leganes (1-0). On the other hand, Dortmund gained a lot of self-confidence in the 2-2 draw against FC Bayern.
Borussia have never beaten Barcelona, which immediately undermines any comeback plan. Everyone at the Signal Iduna Park will know that if we really want to believe in a miracle, we have to be on top of everything from the first minute.
I am not ruling out a BVB win here, but a four-goal lead? Unfortunately, I don’t believe in that. Maybe we’ll end up with a nice 4-4 draw, I wouldn’t say no to that.
The bookmakers’ forecast
We must, of course, take a differentiated view of the forecasts of our tax-free bookmakers. On the one hand, there are the 1×2 odds. If you want to bet on Dortmund winning, you get odds of 3.80. For the Spanish FCB, you get 1.80.
But when it comes to the pure progression, we get to see very different odds. In some cases, a bet on Barcelona is not even possible, while an average of 30.0 is called up for BVB.
Logically, a draw leads to the semi-final for the guests, but for Dortmund it would at least be synonymous with a decent international farewell. A rate of 4.15 is offered.
AI prediction Dortmund vs Barcelona: That’s what ChatGPT tips
Does ChatGPT perhaps have a bright idea of how Dortmund could still progress here and which tips would be suitable? At least the AI is trying to spread a sense of optimism.
It suggests the bet “Dortmund win with handicap -1” to me. That would be a first step towards an upset, but let’s be honest: Barca is way too strong for us to even want to tremble here. If Borussia wins, then in my opinion it will be a close game.
On the other hand, I’m on board with the “Over 3.5 goals” bet. Barca generally decides for itself how many goals should be scored and doesn’t have to go “all in” at the back. Since the home side showed a strong performance in attack against Bayern, there should be a few goals.
The ever-popular “both teams to score” is also suggested – and the fact that I agree on this is already revealed by my main tip. Fittingly, Barcelona have only ended one away CL game without conceding a goal.
Analysis: Dortmund v Barcelona
It was a deserved defeat, no question. Borussia Dortmund experienced a pitch-black day in Barcelona last week, went down 4-0 and knew: it almost certainly meant the end of their Champions League campaign.
It was the 160th time in the history of the Champions League that a club had lost the first leg of the knockout phase by such a large margin – only FC Barcelona itself came further in 2016/17 after a thrashing!
At that time, the Catalans had only lost 0-4 in the first leg against PSG, but the sensation became reality after a 6-1 win in the second leg. But: some very controversial referee decisions also helped at the time.
The fact that Dortmund now has home advantage on its side does not necessarily mean anything. In the last two knockout rounds, the Black and Yellows always set the course for advancing away from home.
Odds Analysis
Analyzing a game in which one team starts with a 4-0 lead is anything but easy. BVB managed to take the lead against Bayern with simple means. Since Barca can play very cautiously on Tuesday, the “Dortmund scores first” bet is a good option.
At Betano, the odds climb to 2.30. What’s more, at Betano you have the chance to benefit from the “BONUSVIP” promotional code. In the direct duel of the group stage, it was 0-0 at half-time and 3-2 to Barca at the end, while in Dortmund’s draw against Bayern, all the goals were scored after the break.
Therefore, I am initially backing the “More goals in the second half” tip, which has odds of 1.90. I also imagine that both teams will be successful after the break. For the specific “BTS” a rate of 2.40 is possible.
Will BVB manage another CL home win?
3:0 and 0:0 against Sporting Lisbon, 1:1 and 2:1 against Lille, it was the away games that did the trick. Incidentally, since these four games, top scorer Serhou Guirassy has also not been noticed.
Before that, he had scored a strong ten goals, even scoring a brace in three home games – including in the 2-3 defeat to Barca in mid-December. But he is currently experiencing something of a scoring drought, managing just one goal in the last four Bundesliga games.
First 2-3, then 0-4, in the previous game 1-3, from a defensive point of view, none of the next opponents should be looking forward to facing this team. There have been six duels against Barcelona so far, not a single one won by Dortmund.
Will Barca coast to a win?
Three of the four defeats were only just beaten by two goals. Historically speaking, these are not the best conditions for somehow sniffing out the big surprise.
But the most recent league appearance against FC Bayern should give them a boost. Dortmund put in a strong performance, especially in the second half, to earn a 2-2 draw.
Hansi Flick’s players were also in action on Saturday evening, and unlike BVB, they have a good chance of winning the league. The coach made a few changes to the team – and that almost went wrong!
Barca won 1-0 against Leganes, with the decisive goal scored by their opponents. In the end, only the three points counted, with Barça remaining top of La Liga. How focused will the stars be when they travel to Dortmund on Tuesday?
The lead is large and the performances in the Champions League have been extremely commanding. They beat Benfica 3-1 and 1-0 in the last sixteen, and every spectator got the feeling that this team didn’t have to push themselves to their limits here.
After a 2-1 defeat to Monaco at the start of the competition a few months ago, Barca picked up speed. They went on to win nine games and draw one against Atalanta Bergamo, scoring a whopping 35 goals in these ten matches.
On average, they score 3.3 goals per game. Of all the teams that have played more than ten games in a season, only Bayern Munich were stronger in the 2019/20 season (3.9 goals). That makes sense, given that Barca were humiliated 2-8 that time.
Barcelona have already scored 15 times before half-time. This is interesting in that only one of the seven goals against BVB was scored in the first half.
Robert Lewandowski hurt his ex-club particularly in the first leg. Since turning 30, he has scored 60 times in 59 CL appearances. A great rate, only Cristiano Ronaldo was more successful with 68 goals in 74 games.
The goal bet on Lewandowski, who has already scored five times in the current competition, has a rate of 1.85 at Betano. If you want to bet that he scores at least twice, you even get 4.55.
My Dortmund Barcelona tip:
In Dortmund, everyone probably knows that the miracle is probably not really realistic. To catch up 0-4 against FC Barcelona, everything would have to go right and the black and yellow would have to have a little luck.
Barcelona is playing a very strong season and has not yet shown any signs of weakness in the Champions League. So I can’t imagine them failing. But: since Barca can take it easy given their lead, BVB could well get a goal.
I therefore expect us to see a lively game in which both teams will push forward. My tip is therefore:
Both teams will score over 2.5 goals!
