Dortmund – Hoffenheim Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 13 on Sunday, 07/12/2025 at 17:30 CET
You know, a Dortmund Hoffenheim bet on BVB can already be considered based on the favorable data situation alone.
If you also use an odds boost to further increase the Dortmund odds of about 1.60 traded on the markets, all the better.
Everything points to Borussia winning anyway: they have lost only one of their last 20 Bundesliga games and have averaged 2.4 points per game against Hoffenheim.
TSG are Dortmund’s favourite opponents – since the 2020/21 season, they have won eight of eleven games against Hoffenheim.
In addition, the cup exit against Leverkusen a few days ago should only have spurred on Kovac’s eleven.
Another strong argument in favour of Borussia is the venue – they currently seem almost unassailable in their own stadium.
Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in nine Bundesliga home games (W7 D2), having previously recorded just one win from seven home games – thanks to Kovac.
Currently, only Bayern Munich has a longer home run without defeat in the league (11 games) than the Black and Yellows.
Dortmund – Hoffenheim Prediction & Betting Tips
I have one or two Dortmund Hoffenheim tips on my list, all of which have one thing in common: they should please the BVB fans among you.
1st goal: Dortmund at odds of around 1.50, for example, is my first recommendation, as the Black & Yellows are true masters in this discipline. Before this matchday, no one in the league has scored 1-0 more times than Kovac’s team (10).
If you are looking for a higher payout, you can consider the selection Win BVB & both meet at German bookmakers. The odds are 2.72 if successful, and the prospects are promising.
In 2025/26, there has never been a competitive match away from home for TSG in which they have not managed to score at least the consolation goal (8).
What you need to know about Dortmund vs. Hoffenheim betting
- Dortmund have scored an average of 1.75 goals per game this Bundesliga season (0.83 more than conceded). BVB were only 91 minutes behind in the 2025/26 season – the lowest figure in Europe’s top 5 leagues.
- TSG are unbeaten in six Bundesliga games (W5 D1) and have picked up 16 points in that period – the highest in the league (tied with Bayern).
- The Asian Goal Line stands at 3.25 goals. Dortmund’s games have the second-lowest goal rate per 90 minutes with an average of 2.67 goals (behind HSV, 2.42).
- Karim Adeyemi (Dortmund) scored four Bundesliga goals. His 2.39 xG after 12 games shows an outperformance of +1.64, the highest value of any player in this encounter.
Dortmund – Hoffenheim: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our Dortmund Hoffenheim AI prediction has a mind of its own! In fact, I can understand the suggestions of our data model, because I would have considered them myself.
Over 3.5 goals at odds around 2.22, for example, a really great tip. This pairing is rarely boring and it shouldn’t be this time either!
The statistics provide proof: three of the last four Bundesliga duels have cracked this mark, including the last match in April, which went 3-2 to BVB.
Last goal: Hoffenheim or the selection 2nd half: TSG over 0.5 goals at 1.91 are two other statistically well-founded AI betting ideas to consider.
Amazingly, Dortmund have conceded 6 of their 11 Bundesliga goals in the final quarter of an hour alone.
However, I am skeptical about the last piece of advice, Karim Adeyemi scores at values around 2.42. The Borussia player is on target, but in four Bundesliga appearances against Hoffenheim he has not yet managed to score a goal. This opponent does not seem to suit him.
The best odds for Dortmund vs. Hoffenheim
Let’s take a look at how the markets assess the whole thing – because the Dortmund Hoffenheim odds tell a story in which the favourite is clearly named, but the uncertainties in the background do not disappear completely.
A home win for Borussia Dortmund is currently priced at 1.60. The bookmakers therefore assume that BVB has enough control, individual quality and penetration to dominate this game.
At the same time, the quota shows that it is not the kind of ultimate self-runner that you know from Bayern games. There are respectable residual doubts – especially defensively.
The draw is 4.50. This assessment brings with it the idea that Hoffenheim could break the rhythm and drag Dortmund into a disjointed game. Not an expected scenario, but one that the models do not ignore – especially when BVB misses chances.
For an away win of Hoffenheim there is 4.90. The bookies see TSG clearly in the role of outsiders, but trust them to punish Dortmund when spaces are created. The quota seems like a compromise: little trust, but not a total rejection of upset potential.
All in all, the Dortmund Hoffenheim odds show a market picture that clearly favours BVB, but leaves plenty of narrative openings – both for a high-scoring spectacle and for an uncomfortably close game if TSG hit the timing of the counterattacks.
Dortmund vs Hoffenheim Match Analysis:
Dortmund have looked more stable defensively since Kovac’s switch to a back three, but remain active offensively: 21 goals show that they are thinking further ahead.
However, Hoffenheim have scored even more goals, which is why the visitors should not be underestimated. Both teams have an average of around 53% possession, which looks like a game in which neither dominates for long.
Instead, there is likely to be a back and forth, in which phase changes and pressing pressure are decisive.
Dortmund will try to build up control, but not completely lose their defensive balance because Hoffenheim have the quality to strike quickly.
Hoffenheim allows the fewest passes per defensive action, so a high pressing is to be expected. That can be dangerous, because Dortmund has a lot of pace in the front line and could benefit from it if Hoffenheim move up too far.
Set pieces could also play a role: Dortmund already has six goals from stationary balls, while Hoffenheim allows an average of 5.58 corners per game – well above the league value of 4.89.
If Dortmund manage to outplay Hoffenheim’s pressing and force set-pieces, then they could steer the game in their direction in this way.
Dortmund Form Check
Dortmund are currently in really strong form: only one defeat in the last 20 Bundesliga games over two seasons, plus five league games without bankruptcy with three wins and two draws.
The win in Leverkusen put the team in third place, even if the cup exit against the same opponent was a small damper afterwards. With 25 points after twelve matchdays, BVB are five points better off than last season.
Forecasts even see them in second place in the end – with at least 65 points. Things are going particularly well at home: Nine Bundesliga home games without defeat are offset by seven wins and two draws.
Dortmund have outstanding defensive stats. They were only 91 minutes behind this season – less than any team in Europe’s top leagues – and conceded only two goals before the break, a club record.
Late in the game, however, things sometimes get shaky: Six of the eleven goals conceded were scored in the last 15 minutes – as already mentioned. Against Leverkusen, they conceded a 2-1 goal in the 83rd minute.
In pressing, they are one of the most active teams in the league, with 161 high pressing actions, while 53.8% possession show a solid mix of control and pace.
Overall, Dortmund look tactically solid, competitive and with a clear perspective on the top.
Hoffenheim form check
Hoffenheim are currently on a really strong run and are unbeaten in six Bundesliga games, five wins and one draw bring 16 points – a league high together with Bayern.
After twelve matchdays, they have 23 points, which is their second-best Bundesliga season after 2008/09.
Fifth place in the table shows that Hoffenheim can dream of international places again, even if our data model sees them in seventh place in the end.
Compared to last season, this is a clear step forward. Things are going particularly well away from home: Eight games without defeat, four wins, four draws, only Bayern are on an away streak longer.
Defensively and tactically, Hoffenheim convinces with few goals conceded in the final phases – only three goals conceded in the last 15 minutes, only Leipzig conceded less.
Their strength lies in pressing: League’s lowest PPDA value of 9.7, plus fourth place in pressed sequences with 165. That shows how intensely they play and put opponents under pressure.
With this mixture of efficiency, stability and high intensity, they can continue to compete at the top and are difficult to crack, especially away from home. Hoffenheim look serene, strong on the run and consistent, ready to attack at the top of the Bundesliga.
