Dortmund – Leipzig Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 6 on Saturday, 10/04/2025 at 3:30 p.m.
On Matchday 6 of the 2025/26 Bundesliga season, the top four teams remain among themselves. Bayern, the league leaders, play against fourth-placed Frankfurt. And second-placed BVB face their neighbors in the table, RB Leipzig.
The match between the Black and Yellows and the Red Bulls promises to be particularly exciting. Both teams have been in good form recently.
In my Dortmund vs. Leipzig prediction, I see BVB in the better position overall to actually take the three points in the end.
There’s hardly any way around betting on a Dortmund win at odds of around 1.70 at Bet-at-home, although I will of course give you one or two alternative tips in the course of my analysis.
One thing is clear: Borussia are not in for an easy ride. RB Leipzig have recovered from their disastrous 6-0 defeat to Bayern at the start of the season and have won their next four games.
However, it is also true that the Saxons did not have an above-average difficult schedule ahead of them with Heidenheim, Mainz, Cologne, and Wolfsburg.
The fact that RB did not play in the European Cup during the week is, of course, an advantage in principle, but it is unlikely to have a significant impact so early in the season.
Dortmund – Leipzig Prediction & Betting
First of all, I would like to recommend a safety-first bet as an alternative. “Both teams to score” is only just scraping the 1.50 mark, but it should pay off as a Dortmund Leipzig prediction.
Leipzig has only failed to score once in its last twelve games. BVB has scored in every game since the 0-0 draw against Fluminense in the Club World Cup.
Anyone who saw Dortmund’s Champions League game against Bilbao knows that BVB is on a roll. Accordingly, I am deliberately taking a risk with the alternative tip “Dortmund to win with HC -1.” The odds are around 2.60. And is a 3-1 win for the Black and Yellows at Signal Iduna Park against RB really so far-fetched?
The third betting option is similar. “Dortmund to score in both halves” has odds of around 2.05. Keep in mind that this bet would have paid off against Bilbao.
What you need to know about betting on Dortmund vs. Leipzig
- Both Dortmund (2.80) and RB Leipzig (2.80) are among the seven Bundesliga teams that have scored less than three goals per 90 minutes on average after five matchdays.
- After five Bundesliga games, RB Leipzig has generated 3.14 expected goals (xG) from set pieces – only Gladbach is ahead with 3.22 xG. With an average of 6.8 shots per 90 minutes from set pieces, Leipzig is one of the most active teams in the league in this category.
- For bets on “Over 3.5 goals,” at least four goals must be scored in the Dortmund vs. Leipzig game. So far this season, however, only three of the ten games played by both teams have seen four or more goals.
- Dortmund defender Ramy Bensebaini has played 52 passes into the final third so far this season – no other player in the Bundesliga has a higher number.
Dortmund – Leipzig: AI tip & odds analysis
Our AI assistant is not letting up on the 6th matchday of the Bundesliga and has calculated its very own Dortmund Leipzig AI prediction.
First, the digital brain goes for a goal bet. “Under 3.5 goals” is offered by German betting providers at odds of around 1.87.
Interesting: Although BVB has recently been spectacular in the Champions League against Bilbao (4:1) and Juventus (4:4), things have been quieter overall in the Bundesliga. The bet would have been right in four of Borussia’s five league games so far.
The second AI tip focuses on RB Leipzig. The “Double Chance X2” is the antithesis of my main tip and offers solid odds of around 2.20.
The statistical basis: The Saxons have only suffered one defeat in their last six games – the aforementioned 0-6 loss to Bayern.
The AI brings a player bet into play. “Serhou Guirassy to score” is listed at Interwetten Germany with odds of around 1.70.
The BVB top striker already has four league goals to his name. His curious goal against Bilbao recently fits the picture all too well – Guirassy scores even when others are actually shooting.
The best odds for Dortmund vs. Leipzig
In the Dortmund vs. Leipzig match, the bookmakers see a clear favorite: a home win for BVB is listed at odds of 1.70.
Despite Wednesday evening’s grueling Champions League match against Athletic Club, the oddsmakers believe Niko Kovac’s team will win on Saturday. The current odds correspond to an implied probability of 58.8 percent.
Leipzig benefits from a full week’s break in this match. After a disappointing seventh place finish last season – one point short of qualifying for the European Cup – the Saxons are now approaching such games with added freshness and concentration. Accordingly, the Asian handicap of +0.75 on RB Leipzig is likely to attract many bettors.
The visitors are coming off four Bundesliga wins in a row – but Dortmund is also on the same streak.
BVB are unbeaten in seven competitive games in the 2025/26 season, including a spectacular 4-4 draw with Juventus in the Champions League. Leipzig’s record is weaker: they have suffered a clear 0-6 defeat against a Champions League caliber team from the Bundesliga.
The Asian goal line for Dortmund against Leipzig is over/under 3.5 goals – one of the highest targets on the sixth matchday of the Bundesliga. However, both Dortmund (2.80) and Leipzig (2.80) are among the seven teams that have averaged less than three goals per 90 minutes after five league games.
For a successful “over” bet, at least four goals would have to be scored. However, in the ten games played by both teams so far this season, there have only been three games with four or more goals.
Dortmund vs Leipzig match analysis:
Niko Kovac’s team is playing with the energy and confidence you would expect from a Dortmund team.
BVB plays with the second-highest defensive line in the Bundesliga – averaging 50.52 meters – which allows them to constantly push forward on attacks. The switch to a 3-4-3 system also provides additional security in defense.
Leipzig will therefore have to be very precise when opportunities arise to play balls behind the chain.
Like their opponents, Leipzig are also known for their aggressive pressing. The direct duels are correspondingly intense: In last season’s meeting at the same venue, 41 tackles were recorded – well above the Bundesliga average of 31.03 in the 2024/25 season.
With both teams willing to take risks in the opponent’s final third, we are likely to see a highly exciting game in which the attackers will find plenty of space to operate. The fact that both teams are currently brimming with confidence promises an additional spectacle.
Dortmund Form check
Borussia Dortmund has started the season in impressive form, collecting 13 points so far and remaining unbeaten in 13 Bundesliga games.
Under coach Niko Kovac, BVB has shown great defensive stability, conceding only three goals and posting an expected goals against (xGA) value of 4 – surpassed only by FC Bayern in the league.
Remarkably, Dortmund has led at halftime in each of its last ten league games.
The team is also impressive offensively, scoring 11 goals and maintaining a balanced home and away record – two home wins without conceding a goal and seven away goals.
The midfield and Serhou Guirassy’s goal threat underline the team’s ability to create and convert chances, as confirmed by an xG value of 9.2.
Despite the Champions League match against Athletic Bilbao, Dortmund seem ready to continue their early dominance in the Bundesliga.
Leipzig form check
Leipzig has shown remarkable resilience this season: after a clear 0-6 defeat to FC Bayern on the first matchday, four wins in a row followed.
Under new coach Ole Werner, the team has steadily improved and impressed with both defensive stability and offensive punch.
Although Leipzig has only scored an average of 0.67 goals per Bundesliga game away from home so far, the team has the second-best expected goals (xG) value in the league with a total of 10.0.
After a summer of significant changes in the transfer market, including the departures of Benjamin Sesko and Xavi Simons, the team is now starting to gel.
New signings Yan Diomande, Johan Bakayoko, and Romulo have brought fresh impetus to the offense and have already contributed six direct goal contributions since the second matchday.
This change underscores Leipzig’s potential to control games and create chances – especially from set pieces, where the Saxons have the second-highest xG value in the league at 3.14.
As Werner continues to shape his team, Leipzig can be expected to stabilize its form – especially as the strikers gradually settle into the Bundesliga.
