Champions League, Wednesday, 19/02/2025 at 18:45
Dortmund let Bochum fight their way down last Bundesliga weekend. Instead of building on the strong second half in the 3-0 win in the first leg against Sporting, BVB suffered the next setback.
We are now already in the middle of February of a disastrous calendar year for the black and yellow. Niko Kovac is currently managing a team that has lost five of seven league games in 2025.
The only hope is still in the European competition, where the hosts should no longer be taken out of the round of 16.
On this basis and with the 3-0 first-leg victory behind them, however, I fear a tough encounter on the turf of the Signal Iduna Park and a passive BVB.
My Dortmund Sporting Lisbon betting tip is therefore on Bet365 at odds of 2.18 for “Under 2.5 goals” in the game.
The bookmakers’ forecast
The uncertainty in Niko Kovac’s team is palpable and there is very little self-confidence among the BVB players.
The only place of refuge currently available to Dortmund is the premier class. There, the best betting providers give the black and yellows a clear advantage and distribute victory odds of just under 2.00.
Sporting Lisbon recently lost two Champions League away games in a row (both 1-2). The Portuguese rarely manage an away win on the European stage, which is why the high win odds of up to 3.80 are not a big surprise.
AI prediction Dortmund vs Sporting Lisbon: That’s what ChatGPT predicts
The AI prediction spits out odds of 1.60 at Betano for “Both teams score”. This has been the case in three of the Black & Yellows’ four away CL games so far. The same applied to three of the Black & Yellows’ four home CL games.
The artificial intelligence tends to expect several goals in the game and suggests “Over 3.5 goals” as a second option. The odds of 2.80 at LeoVegas underline the risk involved in this bet. In connection with the last Bundesliga game of Borussia (0:2 vs. Bochum), the first half of the first leg is more etched in my memory.
ChatGPT can well imagine a similar course of play to last week and, as a high-risk variant, presents the bet “Half-time/final score: draw/Dortmund”. At Winamax, this is offered at 5.40-fold profit.
Analysis: Dortmund vs Sporting Lisbon
If there is one thing that has worked for BVB this season, it is their home games. They have served as a lifeline in dark weeks and earned them nine out of a possible 12 points in the CL league phase.
Across the seasons, the black and yellows have lost only one of their last 15 Champions League home games, which, among other things, could explain the advantages in the odds comparison.
Most recently, Dortmund beat Sporting 1-0 in two consecutive home games. My Dortmund-Sporting Lisbon tip would be another 1-0 win for the home side.
Serhou Guirassy, who has already been directly involved in 13 goals (10 goals, 3 assists) this CL season, has high hopes of scoring.
The attacker has been particularly effective in front of goal at Signal Iduna Park. In three of four CL home games, the BVB number nine scored a brace.
“Serhou Guirassy to score” is available at a fantastic odds of 2.30 on the Bet365 app and is a promising betting option.
Odds Analysis
Since Ruben Amorim left the club from Lisbon, Sporting have not been able to celebrate a victory in the Champions League (1W, 4D). The Lions have not kept a clean sheet in any of these five encounters.
If the fans and players of BVB come together again after the difficult weeks in the Signal Iduna Park, I expect the home side to score at least one goal.
A 1-0 home win for Borussia is, in my opinion, a viable option for a free bet, which is excellently priced at around 8.25.
Dortmund vs Sporting Lisbon odds: Seize the moment
Sporting have made a name for themselves in European football as a talent factory. The current squad of the Portuguese team is once again full of great players who want to seize their chance in the premier league.
Among the 24 remaining Champions League participants, no club put an average younger starting eleven on the pitch than the Lions (24 years, 3 days).
The team from Lisbon, with their high level of individual skill, make up for their lack of experience, but we will have to wait and see if that is enough for one of the greatest comebacks in recent CL history.
One thing is certain: Sporting have not scored more than one goal of their own in five Champions League games. The Lions also did not score more than 0.70 expected goals against BVB in the first leg.
Sporting have never won a knockout game in the premier class. In addition, the Portuguese missed a goal of their own in four out of five attempts.
The return trip from Dortmund could be another trip for the Lions without memories of celebrating a goal of their own. BVB have won five of their previous seven knockout games in the CL (2N) – four of them without conceding a goal.
This puts the focus on Gregor Kobel, who has kept three clean sheets this Champions League season and most recently saved several shots against Sporting (6) and Bochum (7).
His footballing skills may be limited, but when it comes to his line, the BVB goalkeeper is often a great support. If Dortmund play passively again, it will depend on his brilliant saves whether the home side can keep a clean sheet or not.
In contrast to the first leg, I expect Viktor Gyökeres to be back in Sporting’s starting lineup. The center forward (2-2 vs. Arouca) was allowed to play from the start again last weekend.
So far this CL season, the striker has been on the pitch eight times and has used these appearances to score six goals – the best record in his team.
However, the center forward’s lack of match fitness became apparent last weekend, as he failed to score against Arouca.
In their last four meetings, BVB have kept a clean sheet in three of them. If Gyökeres is still not at 100 percent, Sporting could be in for another goal-less game.
My Dortmund Sporting Lisbon tip:
In this second leg, Dortmund can take a wait-and-see position and limit themselves to defending their own goal as much as possible.
The black and yellows may not want to score and Sporting probably can’t. In the first leg, BVB kept the Lions at 0.70 xGA.
Even if the guests score, it is unlikely to change the Black & Yellows’ defensive game plan, who will still be able to easily defend their 3-0 lead.
My betting tip for Dortmund v Sporting Lisbon: Under 2.5 goals!
