Borussia Dortmund – PSV Eindhoven betting tip
Borussia Dortmund managed a working victory against SV Werder Bremen (2:1) last weekend. It was the second Bundesliga win in a row. BVB coach Edin Terzic was visibly satisfied with the performance. “I think we played almost as well as you can play until the red card.”
The Westphalians therefore seem to be well prepared for their second clash with PSV Eindhoven this evening. For their part, Rood-Witten also did their duty and won 1:0 against Go Ahead Eagles in the league.
Dortmund have only conceded one goal in three top-flight appearances at home. I’m basing my BVB PSV Eindhoven betting tip on this. I’m already registered with Interwetten and am playing the bet “Under 2.5 goals” at odds of 2.55.
Guest coach Peter Bosz returns to his old stomping ground tonight. He would have liked to do so with a better first leg result than the 1:1.
However, Rood-Witten left too much to chance in the first encounter and did not benefit much from their playing advantage (1.58:0.86 xG).
PSV have won just two of their seven Champions League games so far and a win at Signal Iduna Park is a rather unlikely scenario for the bookmakers.
The bookmakers’ forecast
The first three home games of the current CL season offered the spectators at Signal Iduna Park only a few goals, but at least no defeat for BVB (1 win, 2 draws).
This not only gives the supporters of the Black & Yellows hope of reaching the Champions League quarter-finals, but also makes Terzic’s team the favorites with odds of up to 2.12 with the bookmakers.
At Sportwetten.de, a BVB victory after 90 minutes even has dream odds of 4.00 thanks to an odds boost!
As already mentioned, the Eredivisie leaders have only won two out of seven matches in the top flight. From this perspective, odds of between 3.10 and 3.40 for an away win are an appropriate assessment.
The first leg showed that a draw is not out of the question. For odds of 3.70 and 3.85, another draw can be a good bet for your sports betting bonus.
Analysis: Dortmund vs PSV Eindhoven
Dortmund are not producing any playful revelations this season, but regularly find ways to get the desired results despite rather mixed performances.
Most recently, the Black & Yellows won two Bundesliga games in a row, asserting their claim to fourth place in the German top flight.
This has often meant low-scoring encounters in the Champions League. Edin Terzic and his team have contented themselves with less than 1.5 goals in five of their seven CL matches.
A lack of chances was not an issue. Dortmund scored no more than 8.9 expected goals – 19 other Champions League participants had the resources for a better figure
One team that scored slightly better in the “expected goals” category was PSV Eindhoven.
Peter Bosz favors a typical 4-3-3 system for the visitors, or rather a 4-2-3-1 formation, from which the Rood-Witten were able to score 9.6 expected goals.
This puts the Eredivisie leaders outside the top 15 and on a similar level to Borussia Dortmund.
This is reflected in the visitors’ previous CL results. Like BVB, the “Lamps” have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in five of their seven CL matches
Analysis of odds
The Bundesliga side have yet to lose a home game in this Champions League season (1 win, 2 draws). However, the Westphalians were only victorious on the fourth CL matchday against Newcastle (2:0).
Therefore, I find the slight odds advantage for the home side justifiable and at the same time I can understand that BVB’s odds to win consistently exceed the 2.00 mark.
Peter Bosz is familiar with the special circumstances of a match in front of the Yellow Wall and will prepare his players as well as possible for the upcoming event.
A PSV win is not out of the question, but the odds for a narrow home win or another draw and thus extra time are higher.
In the Oddset app, I can find odds of 3.80 for a draw. I think that’s a good option. Four out of seven PSV games have ended without a winner, as have the hosts’ last two CL games
BVB need a stroke of genius
There is no doubt that Edin Terzic has a high level of individual quality in attack. The BVB coach needs this, because without strokes of genius from his dribbling artists, the Black & Yellows lack playful solutions.
One potential protagonist is hopeful Jadon Sancho, who scored his first Bundesliga goal since returning to BVB last matchday. His goal was a prime example of the home side’s offensive solutions.
With a finely tuned body movement, he left his direct opponent standing and finished off the move to give Werder a 2-0 lead.
Dortmund are definitely one of the weaker offensive teams in the top flight (8.9 xG) and have scored just three goals in three home games. If they are to reach the quarter-finals, they will need another flash of brilliance from Donyell Malen like in the first leg
Dortmund’s defensive focus
Until now, the Bundesliga runners-up have been able to rely on their defense. Together with Inter and Arsenal, the Black & Yellows conceded the fewest goals per CL match (0.7).
Dortmund conceded just one goal in three CL matches at home. PSV were overwhelmingly superior at times in the first leg, but Bosz’s side have only scored three goals in three appearances away from home.
Borussia will probably be compact and will be looking for one or two great moments from their attacking department to ensure they progress.
A means that the home side have been only too happy to use in the top flight. Six of Westphalia’s seven Champions League games have ended with “under 2.5 goals” in the match.
The visitors from Eindhoven have recently shown similar tendencies. Four of the Rood-Witten’s last five European games have contained fewer than 2.5 goals. In addition, Bosz’s side have scored a maximum of one goal in four of their last five matches
PSV missed heaps of chances to score in the first leg and ultimately had to rely on a questionable penalty, which captain Luuk de Jong converted to make it 1-1.
Dortmund have often had the misfortune of having a penalty whistled against them in this CL season. In seven games, the Black & Yellows have had three penalties awarded against them.
Two of these three penalties were converted. Without penalties, Dortmund only conceded three goals in seven Champions League matches
On paper, these are great figures for the Black & Yellows. However, the expected goals conceded (12.4 xGA) were significantly higher. The Bundesliga club has obviously been able to clearly undercut them so far.
In the calendar year 2024, the hosts have shown an extremely positive trend in defense, not conceding a single goal in five out of ten competitive matches.
BVB coach Edin Terzic tends to rely on a passive defensive approach from his team in the top flight. Dortmund allowed an average of 14.1 passes per defensive action and only won 41 balls in the final third
My BVB PSV tip:
Dortmund have done well to focus on defense in the Champions League season so far, even if the expected goals conceded advise a change.
It depends on PSV how high-scoring this encounter will be. Dortmund will rely on individual moments in attack and wait-and-see work against the ball.
If Eindhoven miss their chances to score, as they did in the first leg, a narrow one-nil win for the home side should be a realistic scenario.
I expect an intense but low-scoring second encounter, with a maximum of two goals at Signal Iduna Park.
My BVB PSV Eindhoven tip: Under 2.5 goals in the match!
