Borussia Dortmund – Real Madrid betting tip & the best odds for the Champions League final
The year is 1997, at the end of May. Borussia Dortmund have had a relatively dismal Bundesliga season (3rd place), but have the chance to secure the greatest triumph in the club’s history with a win in the Champions League final.
The problem: Juventus Turin are the clear favorites. Soon, however, a certain Lars Ricken (shirt number 18) is ready to be substituted. The rest is soccer history and legend.
Is history repeating itself 27 years later? The fact is: BVB have disappointed in the league and today face a seemingly overpowering opponent in Real Madrid in the final of the premier class.
In my Dortmund Real Madrid betting tip for the 2024 CL final, it would be easy to focus on a Madrid success. After all, the Whites are the better team – there’s no doubt about that.
However, will this statement be reflected in the BVB Real odds in the expected way?
In fact, in the Champions League final odds, the bookies have the Spanish team as favorites. However, I’m going to show you numerous statistics that also speak in favor of a strong Borussia performance.
The bet “Both teams to score” will be the quintessence of my analysis – this bet is my first choice when it comes to Dortmund Real bets.
In addition, I will of course provide you with further betting alternatives that round off the 2024 Champions League final from a betting perspective.
Let’s start with the BVB Real Madrid prediction with the assessment of the major betting providers on the classic 1×2 odds before I talk in detail about the Dortmund Real odds – not least, of course, with a (purposefully) optimistic sideways glance at the BVB Champions League win odds!
The BVB Real bookmaker prediction
Before the start of the 2024 European Championship, the CL final is of course the last big soccer highlight.
And I must honestly admit that the Champions League final odds surprised me a little at first glance. In fact, I assumed that top bookmakers like Betano would see the Madrilenians as the favorites.
However, with odds of just under 1.70, a Real win is easily playable even as a single bet. BVB’s role as underdogs is still quite moderate in the Champions League Final odds at 4.70.
However, if you have your sights set on extra time, you can plan on great odds of 4.20 for a draw after 90 minutes
Dortmund – Real odds: Also with Boost?
Possibly it has already sounded like I was expecting a little bit more as Champions League win BVB odds: For a historic triumph against the most successful club in the world – if the worst comes to the worst – there must be something more to be had!
And indeed: If you choose a small combination, some prominent bookmakers offer a significant premium for CL Final bets. Thanks to the Bwin odds boost, the payout for the bet “BVB win & over 2.5 goals” swells to an incredible 8.75 times the stake in the event of success.
Only new customers can also benefit from a further premium on the BVB Real Final odds. For a maximum stake of 10 euros, odds of 10.0 can be dusted off, which Bwin will then make available as free bet capital.
When it comes to goalscorer bets, Bet365 is a really good choice in my opinion, as the British betting site also offers a tasty BVB Real odds boost. If Niclas Füllkrug opens the scoring tonight with the 1:0 goal, strong odds of 12.0 will be paid out!
Analysis: Dortmund vs Real Madrid
Whoever knocks out Atlético Madrid in the quarter-finals and sends Paris Saint-Germain home in the semi-finals will of course be in the final of the premier class, and rightly so. Nevertheless, the question arises as to how BVB have managed to get this far despite their shortcomings.
The answer is obvious: disciplined defensive work. Borussia only conceded four goals in the group stage. Three times they played to nil. In the subsequent knockout rounds, they then went another three games without conceding a goal.
PSG in the group stage and Atlético were the only two teams to concede more than one goal to BVB in a match. Statistically, Borussia therefore have the most stable defense of the Champions League season.
It is probably due to this stability that BVB – as mentioned – are by no means considered hopeless underdogs in the Dortmund Real odds
If the Bundesliga team also keeps Real Madrid under 1.5 goals, you can pick up strong odds just above 1.50.
In addition, it should not be swept under the carpet that BVB were also extremely consistent offensively after the 2-0 draw against Paris and the 0-0 draw against Milan. Borussia scored at least one goal in each of the following ten matches.
If Dortmund also scores at least once against Real, the odds are a solid 1.50.
Of course, the truth is that Real Madrid also have some impressive statistics on their side.
Particularly impressive: the madridistas have not conceded a single defeat in regular time in the 2024 calendar year. The only defeat came in the cup after extra time against Atlético Madrid (2:4).
The last “real” defeat came in September 2023 in the league, again against their city rivals (1:3). And Madrid are still without a defeat in this Champions League season.
And that should mean something after the quarter-finals and semi-finals against Manchester City (3:3, 1:1) and FC Bayern (2:2, 2:1).
If you add in the round of 16 against RB Leipzig (1-0, 1-1), it is striking that the Spaniards only conceded once in the entire knockout round.
Combine this with the fact that Real have scored in every game of the current premier class season to this point and the bet “Real & both teams to score” takes center stage. With odds of around 3.15, the value is obvious
Analysis of odds
If you look at the odds for the various goal bets, you can see a certain perplexity among the betting providers. For example, a match with over 2.5 goals is listed noticeably lower than the counter bet “Under 2.5 goals”.
However, with odds of 1.70 for the over market, the bookmakers are not going out on a limb. And let’s not misunderstand each other: I can easily understand that.
After all, I don’t expect Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid to go head-to-head.
Accordingly, I consider the “Under 3.5 goals” at odds of around 1.50 to be a playable single bet. If you combine this impression with my main bet “Both teams to score”, the 1:1 after 90 minutes inevitably comes into focus.
The odds are around 8.25 and are seen as an extremely likely option by the bookmakers after the narrow 1:0 win for Real (7.70). The question remains as to who could be responsible for the respective goals.
For Madrid, Jude Bellingham and Vini Jr. are at the top of the goalscoring charts (2.10). At BVB, meanwhile, Youssoufa Moukoko (shirt number 18) could play the role of Ricken. If the youngster scores for BVB (probably after a substitution), you can dust off odds of around 4.40.
BVB vs Real odds: The royals again?
When it comes to Champions League experience, Real Madrid are of course no one’s fool.
The Spaniards are contesting their 18th final in the top flight. 14 wins in the previous 17 finals speak for themselves.
The odds for the bet that Real will ultimately lift the trophy are correspondingly low. Borussia Dortmund will be appearing in the CL final for the third time.
In 1997, they sensationally won the title (3:1 against Juve). In 2013, they were narrowly defeated by FC Bayern (1:2). If BVB triumphs on Saturday, strong odds of around 3.50 are due
Fearful opponent Madrid – or not?
A look at the direct comparison reveals extremely interesting statistics. On the one hand, Real Madrid have only lost three of their 14 previous encounters with BVB.
In fact, the Bundesliga club has a lower success rate (17%) only against Manchester City (in at least five duels).
However, their record of six wins and five draws is not really impressive either. It could be argued that the Spaniards have failed to win eight of their 14 matches against Dortmund
Fittingly: The “Double Chance 1X” offers strong value for Saturday’s clash with odds of around 2.30. The goal difference of 24:19 rounds off the impression that BVB and Real have usually been rather close.
The last time the two teams met was in the group stage of the 2017/18 Champions League season.
The Madrilenians narrowly won both duels (3:1, 3:2). Interesting fact: Three wins in a row for one team would be a novelty in this duel. A bad omen for the upcoming CL final from Real’s point of view?
It is also noticeable that the last few matches between the two teams have been rather high-scoring.
A total of 17 goals have been scored in the last four games alone.
The two teams have yet to meet in the CL final. After the clash between Real and Bayer Leverkusen in 2002 (2:1), this will be the first CL final between Germany and Spain
My BVB Real Madrid tip:
Before the European Championship bookmakers focus everything on the European Championship, under normal circumstances Real Madrid should win the Champions League on Saturday. There, I’ve said it. Under normal circumstances, however, Juventus Turin should also have won the Champions League in 1997.
The fact that BVB are extremely stable defensively and hardly offer Madrid any space for their own transitional play is a clear indication that Borussia will not allow themselves to be overrun by the Spaniards.
However, BVB will probably still need a good dose of luck to lift the trophy in the end. However, I think Dortmund will score at least one goal.
Accordingly, my Dortmund Real Madrid tip is: Both teams will score at least one goal each
