Bundesliga Matchday 23, Saturday, 22.02.2025 18:30
During the week, Dortmund celebrated their first success under coach Niko Kovac by advancing to the last 16 of the Champions League. After winning the first leg 3-0 at home, they secured a ticket to the Top 16 that was never really in danger.
A low-risk 0-0 draw was enough for BVB in the second leg, in which the visitors never gave the impression of wanting or needing to turn around the deficit. In my Dortmund Union Berlin betting tip, the Black & Yellows now return to the daily grind of the Bundesliga.
And here the change of coach has not paid off at all with two defeats in a row. Last weekend’s 2-0 defeat at VfL Bochum was particularly embarrassing
The club is in danger of missing out on international business this season. The gap to 6th place is already six points. Their home strength is also no longer a bargaining chip.
Black & Yellows have failed to win three of their last five Bundesliga home games (3 draws, 2 defeats). Only three times in the club’s history have there been longer negative streaks in front of a home crowd, most recently 25 years ago.
I don’t think BVB will suffer another BL defeat under Kovac and in my Dortmund Union Berlin prediction at odds of 1.90 at Interwetten I’m playing the bet “Double chance 1/x & both score”.
The prediction of the bookmakers?
BVB are only in 11th place after 22 match days. The Westphalians are only two places and five points ahead of their upcoming opponents. However, the Dortmund vs Union Berlin odds do not reflect the proximity in the table.
With win odds of just over 1.50, the home side are clearly favored despite the current crisis in the league. On the other hand, the best bookmakers are offering betting odds of between 5.25 and 5.50 for a Dortmund vs Union Berlin win.
AI prediction Dortmund vs Union Berlin: ChatGPT
ChatGPT also took a look at this match for us. With a low risk, the AI suggests the tip “Over 2.5 goals”. The bookies are also expecting a few goals on Saturday evening.
Merkur Bets has low odds of just 1.55 for this bet, but I can’t recommend this bet without reservation. BVB have only scored one goal in the two league games under Niko Kovac.
In addition, Union is the team in the Bundesliga with the weakest chance conversion rate (19.6%). The AI tip with medium risk is “Both teams score & Dortmund win”.
For this BVB Union Berlin tip, the odds at NEO.bet already climb to a value of 2.96. As a new customer, you should not miss out on the NEO.bet bonus here.
Of course, there are also arguments for more than two goals. Borussia have been without a clean sheet for eleven league games. In addition, a total of 12 goals have been scored in the Westphalians’ last three home BL matches.
In the area of high risk, ChatGPT recommends the result tip “Dortmund win 2:1”, for which there are high odds of 8.50 in the Bet365 app.
Result tips are actually always very risky and are therefore not part of my strategy on the betting market. However, with a small stake and a double bottom like a free bet, you can of course still try such a tip from time to time.
Analysis: Dortmund vs Union Berlin
With 29 points after 22 games, Dortmund are playing their weakest Bundesliga season since 2014/15 (25). The defense in particular is causing major problems with 38 goals conceded.
BVB had only conceded more goals at this point in the 1985/86 season, when they only managed to avoid relegation in the relegation play-offs. The Bundesliga table for 2025 does not look good either.
The Westphalians are in 18th place with four points and -7 goals. For the first time since 2007, the club lost five of its first seven Bundesliga games of a calendar year.
Coach Niko Kovac’s squad played to order in the top flight on Wednesday, keeping their opponents away from their own goal. But the 0-0 draw against Sporting certainly didn’t generate any new momentum or fresh self-confidence either.
At the moment, the team doesn’t have the necessary form to offer the fans a good and entertaining game, even against an opponent who has already ticked off the duel.
BVB have a negative record for the first time this Bundesliga season (8 wins, 5 draws, 9 defeats). They already have two more defeats to their name than after the entire last Bundesliga season (7).
The personnel situation at the Westphalians is actually very relaxed, only Felix Nmecha is sorely missed. The six-man will be out until the middle or end of March.
Before his injury, Nmecha was in charge of the control center, had a good eye for the build-up play and plugged the holes in the defense
Odds Analysis
The Borussians are quite accurate at home against the Berliners. This results in a few more Dortmund Union Berlin tips. For “Over 1.5 goals” for the home side, for example, there are odds of 1.53 at Bwin.
Then, of course, we also have to look at the goalscorer market. Serhou Guirassy has scored 19 goals in 30 competitive matches this season. And I also have the attacker on my list for Saturday.
For the bet “Guirassy scores” I get odds of 1.98 at Winamax.
Dortmund vs Union Berlin: FCU are slowly turning the corner
Steffen Baumgart’s record as Bo Svensson’s successor is two wins, one draw and four defeats. At first glance, that doesn’t look all that convincing.
However, the last few games have shown that the team is making initial progress under the new coach. The Berliners are creating more chances overall under the new coach.
The expected goals value under Svensson was 1.06 per game, now under Baumgart it is 1.61 per game. However, 21 goals scored is still the second-lowest figure ahead of FC St. Pauli (18).
As in the previous season, Köpenick picked up 24 points from the first 22 games of the season. The Ironmen have never had fewer at this stage in the top flight.
Baumgart must instil more consistency in the team
The away spell was also broken with the 4-0 win at Hoffenheim after six consecutive away defeats. Consistency is still lacking, however. But the processes are working better and better from week to week under the new coach.
Union Berlin’s professional players have covered an average of 120.6 kilometers per game this season. Only the players of FC St. Pauli are better here (121.3 km per game).
However, the team’s weakest “shot conversion” (9.8%) and last place in “shooting accuracy” are a problem. Only 39.3% of shots are on target.
Apart from Skov, the visitors will be able to draw on a full squad on Saturday.
This pairing has already been played 13 times in German soccer. BVB have the edge with eight wins to four. However, Dortmund conceded all four defeats in Berlin.
Borussia has an unblemished record of five wins in five games at home against the Ironmen. FCU have also only scored five goals at Signal-Iduna-Park
The Köpenickers have conceded the most away goals (17) in Dortmund. If you look at the previous 11 BL duels, the home side have won nine of them.
The Black & Yellows have won twice at the Alte Försterei.
My BVB Union Berlin tip:
BVB urgently need to collect points in the Bundesliga. I also think Dortmund can score against Union. For me, that has to do with the fact that Union is Borussia’s absolute favorite opponent at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What’s more, with six defeats in their last seven games away from home, the Iron Ferns find it much more difficult than at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei. But the game will certainly not be a walkover either.
That’s why I’m cautious. My tip for the Dortmund – Union Berlin game is: Double chance 1/x & both score!
