Dortmund – Villarreal Tip Champions League, Matchday 5 on Tuesday, 25/11/2025 at 21:00 CET
On Matchday 5 of the Champions League, Borussia Dortmund face a crucial task with the game against FC Villarreal. Things haven’t really been going well for BVB recently. The Bundesliga club can hardly afford a home defeat against the Spaniards.
Since Dortmund have been rather wild in the Champions League so far (a total of 24 goals in 4 games), I expect a turbulent exchange of blows in my Dortmund Villarreal tip.
It cannot be denied: BVB has recently lost focus. In the last five games, only one win after regular time has been achieved. And the last Bundesliga successes against Augsburg and Cologne (1-0 each) were by no means convincing.
Now they face Villarreal, an opponent who is difficult to assess. The “Yellow Submarine” is in an impressive third place in the league behind Barcelona and Real Madrid.
In the Champions League, on the other hand, they recently lost to outsiders Paphos and are only on one point after four matchdays. What face are the Spaniards now showing at Signal Iduna Park?
Dortmund – Villarreal Prediction & Betting
After the two late goals conceded against HSV (1-1) and most recently against Stuttgart (3-3), unrest is spreading at BVB. A sovereign performance against Villarreal is therefore absolutely necessary.
As a first tip alternative, I therefore bring the bet “1st goal Dortmund” into play. I assume that BVB will start like a fire brigade in front of their home crowd and do everything they can to take an early lead. In my opinion, the odds around 1.60 at the German betting providers justify the risk.
For the second tip, I rely on Borussia’s offense. “BVB over 1.5 goals” at an odd of about 1.75 makes perfect sense, even if Serhou Guirassy is currently in a crisis and no longer gives the impression that he is wholeheartedly involved. The three goals against Stuttgart prove that Dortmund remains dangerous even without their prevented goalscorer.
Since I believe Villarreal can score exactly one goal, I also recommend the bet “Villarreal under 1.5 goals”. The odds are scratching the 1.45 mark. If you consider that the Spaniards have only scored two CL goals so far, the selection is clear from my point of view.
What you need to know about Dortmund vs. Villarreal betting
- Borussia Dortmund have scored a total of 24 goals (13 scored and 11 conceded) in Borussia Dortmund’s four UEFA Champions League matches so far this season – more than ever before by a team after the first four games of a single edition.
- Villarreal are among the nine teams that have yet to win in the 2025/26 Champions League season. The Spaniards have lost both away games and have not scored a goal.
- Dortmund ranks 12th in the betting market “Top 8 finish in the league phase”. It is noteworthy that the club is the only team to play only once at home on the first four matchdays – which gives it an advantageous home/away schedule compared to its competitors.
- After scoring 13 goals in 14 Champions League games last season, Dortmund’s Serhou Guirassy has only scored once so far this season. His current xG value is just 0.32 expected goals per 90 minutes, down from an average of 1.02 per 90 in the 2024/25 Champions League.
Dortmund – Villarreal: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Of course, our AI model takes a close look at the Bundesliga clubs in the Champions League. Accordingly, you can look forward to a Dortmund Villarreal AI prediction with three additional betting alternatives.
With the first tip, the digital brain dispenses with any frills and goes for the bet “Win Dortmund” at odds around 1.80. In view of Villarreal’s previous CL performances (D1, L3), this makes statistical sense. How BVB reacts after the recent setbacks, however, is the big question.
The AI expands the selection for the second suggestion into a combination. “Win Dortmund & Both Teams Score” has odds of around 3.30. Since Borussia has conceded goals in every CL game this season so far, there is statistically nothing to complain about.
The third hint suggestion of the AI is very interesting. “Over 2.5 goals” has been quoted rather generously at about 1.70 by Winamax (including Winamax Boost). After all, Borussia’s first four preliminary round games have each broken this mark. In fact, no BVB game has been less than five goals.
The best odds for Dortmund vs. Villarreal
Villarreal travel to Dortmund – still winless in the 2025/26 Champions League. The Spaniards are among the nine teams that have not yet won after four matchdays.
Interestingly, Dortmund is the only team in the competition that has had to play three away games on the first four matchdays. In view of this, the seven points scored so far are a strong record.
According to bookmakers, Dortmund are favourites against Villarreal in the 1×2 market. The current odds on a Dortmund victory imply a winning probability of over 55%.
The Asian handicap on Dortmund is -0.75. This handicap leads to half wins if Dortmund wins by one goal. If the home team wins by two or more goals, bettors on Dortmund -0.75 will receive the full profit.
The Asian goal line for Dortmund vs. Villarreal is over/under 2.75. Four or more goals guarantee the full payout.
Our internal data model predicts 2.89 goals for this match. This expected number of goals implies a 51.7% probability that the game will go over the set goal line – and 48.3% that it will stay below. This indicates that the goal line offers little value.
Three Borussia Dortmund players are priced lower than Villarreal’s top candidate Ayoze Pérez for scoring at any point in the game. Dortmund striker Serhou Guirassy is the favourite to score – the only player with odds below 2.00.
Dortmund vs Villarreal Match Analysis:
This game is of enormous importance for Dortmund, as the club is aiming to make it into the top eight. Villarreal, on the other hand, desperately need a win to keep their hopes of reaching the knockout phase alive.
In the Bundesliga, Dortmund’s defence sometimes looks stable in a 3-4-3, but this stability has not carried over to the Champions League. No team has seen more goals in their games in the league phase: 13 scored and 11 conceded.
Although the 3-4-3 positions more Dortmund players in deep zones, the team continues to seek high pressing – visible in its PPDA value (passes allowed per defensive action), which is the fifth lowest in the Bundesliga.
Villarreal will either have to play through Dortmund’s pressing or switch to long balls into the half-spaces to avoid losing the ball in their own defensive third.
Dortmund’s risky approach, combined with Villarreal’s obligation to win, suggests that both teams will score – as they have done in all four league games played by Dortmund so far.
Villarreal have collected ten tickets in the Champions League so far – the third-most in the league phase. The “Yellow Submarine” is likely to receive further cautions, as Dortmund forces its opponents to an average of 12.25 fouls per game (league phase average: 11.43).
Villarreal’s two-striker system means that the attack is often outnumbered against the Dortmund defence. Strikers like Georges Mikautadze therefore have to find space in the half-spaces and are supported by the wide midfielders.
Dortmund Form Check
With three home games remaining in the last four matchdays of the Champions League, Dortmund is well positioned to qualify as one of the top eight teams.
The home statistics of Niko Kovac’s team in the Champions League are remarkable: In the last 18 home games, there has been only one defeat – a 3-2 defeat against Barcelona in December 2024.
Last season, however, Borussia had two more points after four games than now and still missed out on the top 8 by a single point.
With four goals in each of their first three European games – against Juventus, Athletic Bilbao and Copenhagen – Borussia have been one of the most entertaining teams in the competition.
However, they are the biggest overperformers in the Champions League so far in terms of expected goals (xG). Actually, they should have scored 7.44 goals less. Their completion rate of 29.5% is the best in the entire competition.
Nevertheless, Kovac is under pressure for the first time since taking office, as he is accused of not playing attractive, attacking football.
The figures back this up: Borussia usually dominate possession in Europe (53.8% on average), but only seven teams concede fewer shots per game (11 on average). Kovac prefers a controlled approach.
If the recent 4-1 defeat against Manchester City and the 2-1 defeat in the classic against Bayern were a reality check for Borussia, they should still be able to prevail against opponents on an equal footing.
Villarreal form check
With just one point from four Champions League games, Villarreal desperately need three points to keep their chances of reaching the knockout stages alive.
The “Yellow Submarine” failed to score in three of its four games. However, the underlying data points to bad luck: Villarreal have scored more than one expected goal (xG) in each of their last three European matches.
Villarreal have played eight competitive games away from home this season – winning three and losing four. The Spaniards have faced strong opponents in this period, but the 1-0 defeat to Paphos was a warning sign.
Villarreal’s games are among the lowest-scoring in the league phase with only eight goals so far – a clear contrast to Dortmund’s Champions League matches.
Marcelino has not been able to rely on his attackers since the beginning of the season. His top league goalscorers are midfielders. Georges Mikautadze is the only Villarreal striker to have scored in the Champions League.
Villarreal is used to leaving the ball to the opponent. The team has the third-highest PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) in La Liga. This passive approach means that Villarreal has an average of only 45% possession in the Champions League.
