ATP Tournament in Stuttgart, Final, Sunday, 16.06.2024
Can Berrettini win his third title in Stuttgart? After a two-month break, the Roman put on a show at the Weissenhof Tennis Club. From a three-set thriller to playful dominance on the center court of the 250-court tournament.
But his opponent Jack Draper has also impressed so far, winning 31 out of 33 points on his first serve in the semi-finals. I’m expecting a tough final on Sunday, before the European Championship matches start, in which I think the supposed underdog will win the set. Betano has the right odds
At the beginning, Berrettini still had teething problems. After the 2021 Wimbledon finalist took the set lead, things got dicey again against Roman Safiullin, it was game one after one of many injury breaks in his career.
Buoyed by his performance, he didn’t lose another set in the next three rounds, 6-4, 6-4 against Denis Shapovalov, 6-4, 7-5 against James Duckworth and another showcase day on Saturday with 6-4, 6-0 in the Italian duel against Lorenzo Musetti.
It was win number 44 in his grass court career, 54 times he has been on court, which is an incredible 81 percent win rate on the fast surface. Can he extend the streak? According to our top betting providers, who also have a broad repertoire of European Championship offers, the answer is “yes.”
Albeit a small one, in odds terms: a 1.60 for the two-time Stuttgart triumphant. Draper has yet to win a title in his young career and can only boast five Challenger triumphs on hard court.
He reached the 250 final twice in Sofia and Adelaide, twice putting up a great fight, twice losing narrowly in three sets. Will he also take a set in his third 250 final? Betano still offers top odds of 1.50 in comparison.
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Berrettini already warned against the 22-year-old, currently the only figurehead in British tennis, in the semi-final winner’s interview. Like the Roman, Draper’s injury woes have occasionally prevented him from chasing world ranking points.
Unsurprisingly, his highlight of the year is the home tournament at Wimbledon. Like Berrettini, his grass court season got underway in Stuttgart, meaning he also has a clean slate with a 4-0 win record in 2024.
Sebastian Ofner (7-6, 7-6), Murray conqueror Marcos Giron (6-4, 3-6, 6-3), defending champion Frances Tiafoe (5-7, 6-4, 7-6) and Brandon Nakashima (6-3, 6-3) all lost out to Draper. Like Berrettini, he gets a lot of free points on his first serve alone
Breaks will probably be in short supply on Sunday. In addition to the Draper set win bet, the 1.47 at Betano for a 7-6 set outcome in the match is worth watching. In the semi-final, both offered strong odds of 70 and 68 percent of successful first serves.
Advantage for the Italian, more points on the second serve. Nevertheless, I see the 40 players in the world at a similar level and Berrettini also had more complicated service games from time to time.
Ultimately, however, the odds distribution suits me, as the Briton’s set win is in an attractive range. Incidentally, Draper and Berrettini had never met before, a first for players and fans alike
My Draper Berrettini tip
Draper and Berrettini can look back on a successful first grass court week in 2024, but I wouldn’t dare to say who will crown it with the title. The two-time Stuttgart champion from Italy has more experience, especially in finals.
But his opponent has hardly shown any weaknesses either. Unlike the bookies, I see the matchup as being on a par, which is why I’m going for the lucrative set win odds for Draper. Alternatively, I recommend a tiebreak bet.
My Draper Berrettini tip: Set win Draper
