Dresden – Mainz Tip DFB Cup, 1st Round on 08/18/2025 at 6:00 p.m.
This match is probably the most interesting first-round clash in the DFB Cup on paper! Dynamo is an ambitious second division club that has its sights set high – even if the start of the league season did not go as planned!
Mainz, on the other hand, is a club that has not been involved in the relegation battle in the top flight for years and, after a promising preseason, is now looking to challenge for a European place once again.
According to my Dresden Mainz prediction, we are in for a real cup fight! I have taken a close look at which soccer bets are most suitable for you to be successful at the betting shop.
My Dresden Mainz tip: Both teams will score!
Here are the reasons for my tip:
- Dresden has not scored a goal in only two home games in 2025!
- Mainz has scored 4 or more goals in 4 of its 5 test matches!
- The heated atmosphere will encourage an open exchange of blows!
It may seem surprising, but there has never been a duel between these two clubs before.
Both experienced their heyday in the top flight at different times, but now they cross swords for the first time in an intense cup fight that will not go unnoticed.
In fact, many established bookmakers have positioned themselves for Monday to offer you the best deals for your very own Dresden Mainz tip!
Dresden – Mainz Prediction & Betting
Here are my own tips for what could be the most exciting first-round match in the DFB Cup.
First tip: “Christoph Daferner to score” at odds of around 3.45 sounds absolutely reasonable to me. Although SGD has yet to win a second division match, their top goal scorer has been successful in both games so far. If anyone can make the difference, it’s him.
Second tip: “Over 2.5 goals” at odds of 1.70. This tip is a little less risky, but still exciting. I have a feeling that we’re going to see a high-scoring game with plenty of action at both ends.
Third tip: “Between 4 and 6 goals” at odds of 2.90 in the Betano app. This is a tip that I personally like because it fits my scenario perfectly. Whether it’s 2-2, 3-2 or 2-3, I think all of these results are absolutely realistic.
What you need to bear in mind when betting on Dresden vs Mainz
- Surprisingly, this is the first ever meeting between Dresden and Mainz.
- There have been “over 2.5 goals” in 4 of Dresden’s last 5 home league games.
- Mainz have only been knocked out of the first round of the cup once since 2015.
- Christoph Daferner could score for SGD in his third competitive game in a row.
- M05 has had an almost perfect preseason: 4 wins, 1 draw.
Dresden – Mainz: AI tip & odds analysis
I fired up my computer and called up ChatGPT to get the best Dresden Mainz AI prediction possible. The three suggestions I was given convinced me almost 100%!
“Dresden win” at 3.75, for example, is an exciting and promising tip for anyone betting on the underdog. SGD has only lost three competitive games at home in 2025 – so why not consider a big cup moment?
Predicted chance of winning:
| Dresden win |
Draw |
Mainz win |
| 25% |
26% |
49% |
“Double chance 1X” at 1.95 also sounds reasonable. I think Dresden is capable of taking the game into extra time at least. Even a win within regular time seems entirely possible.
“1st goal: Mainz” at 1.65 sounds solid, but is unspectacular in terms of odds. In addition, Dresden could come out boldly from the start and dominate the first few minutes – an early goal from the hosts would not be a sensation.
The best odds for Dresden vs. Mainz
Dresden vs. Mainz – a duel that has a lot to offer, not only in terms of sport but also in terms of odds. If you’re looking for the best Dresden Mainz odds, check out Bet-at-home, where a juicy Bet-at-home odds boost awaits.
A home win for SGD is available at a juicy 3.80 – perfect for anyone who believes in an euphoric crowd and a courageous performance. A draw is also an exciting pick for bettors who expect a tactical battle, at 3.65.
Mainz is the favorite going into the match, but an away win still offers solid value at 1.93. The aforementioned odds boost makes every option even more tempting – and those who plan cleverly can really cash in here.
Dresden vs Mainz match analysis:
This is going to be a heated affair! Dresden will be looking to show their home crowd that they are ready for the new season, and will be using their wing play in particular to put Mainz under pressure.
Mainz have a little more quality in midfield and will try to control the game, but they will have to be careful not to get caught on the counter against Dresden’s pace and home strength.
In the end, it could be an open contest with chances for both teams, but Dresden may have the slight advantage with home advantage and Mainz will have to invest a lot to hold them off.
I’m not going to venture a guess as to the winner, but I’m leaning towards the Saxons going through. Home advantage is very important in DFB Cup games!
Dresden form check
Dresden already has some competitive experience under its belt, but the results against Magdeburg (1-2) and Fürth (2-3) show that it has yet to find its winning form.
However, that’s no cause for concern: the cards are reshuffled in the cup, and past defeats are much less significant.
With a fresh mindset and the necessary commitment, Dresden can put in a completely different performance in this match and break out of their recent slump.
Mainz form check
Mainz has had a sensational preseason, winning four of its five friendly matches.
Particularly impressive were the 4-1 wins against Saarbrücken and the 4-3 win against Crystal Palace. Such results show that Mainz is in top form and can already deliver the attacking power I want to see on the pitch.
The team looks versatile and clinical, which is a huge boost to their confidence. A team that achieves such results in friendly matches will go into the upcoming games with plenty of momentum and a desire to win.
