World Cup qualifier, Tuesday, 10.09.2024 at 23:00
Peru are bottom of the South American World Cup qualifiers for the 2026 tournament, with just three points, two goals and no wins from their first seven games. There are still eleven games to go, but points are urgently needed. Now it’s time for the clash against Ecuador.
I am convinced that the score will remain the same after this match and that the hosts will record a controlled victory. Accordingly, I’m backing Ecuador to win by under 4.5 goals at Winamax
Few highlights for Peru in recent international matches. La Rojiblanca are still waiting for their first three-pointer and World Cup qualification is in jeopardy. Due to the increased number of participants for the next World Cup, qualifying in South America will be easier.
Six of the ten nations have qualified directly, with seventh place in the intercontinental play-offs. Peru are at least only three points off seventh place. However, I don’t have high hopes that Jorge Fossati’s team will still get a ticket
In terms of squad and play, Peru are currently one of the weakest national teams in South America. Two goals after seven games speaks volumes. In fact, Paraguay are even lower in seventh place with one goal, but already have six points to their name with three 0-0 and one 1-0 win.
It is no secret that the matches in South America are of a low-scoring nature. Peru’s scoring record is 2:9, giving them an average of 1.57 goals. For Ecuador it was only 1.28 goals. With four goals conceded, Ecuador conceded far fewer than the bottom team
What does Winamax have to offer in terms of goal betting? In fact, for over 1.5 goals just 1.36. I don’t see any value there. I find the under variants more interesting, “Under 2.5” at 1.66.
A 1.22 for a maximum of three goals is suitable for a combination ticket. I don’t expect the big offensive fireworks on Tuesday. And the 1X2 odds? Ecuador is clearly ahead, but the odds are still interesting at 1.39.
The Peru win is at 8.00, the draw at 4.10. The combination of the Ecuador win in front of a home crowd with under 4.5 goals as a betting configurator combination allows for 1.58 odds. With the “Under 3.5” variant you can achieve 1.86.
Both variants are impressive. However, the jump in odds is not high enough for me, so I prefer to hedge my bets with the “Under 4.5” option for a fourth goal. The most likely outcome for me is a 1:0 or 2:0 win, as a multi-chance result combination we get a 2.80.
For me, this is the more interesting option than the 1.94 that Ecuador will win by zero. Peru are still waiting for their first away goal in qualifying. After all, the offense scored in the last two qualifying games in the 1-1 draw against Venezuela and Colombia
However, the nation that last took part in a World Cup in 2018 hasn’t really scored much. They also failed to score a single goal in the group stage of the Copa America and have failed to create double-digit chances in four international matches in a row. There is a lack of quality in attack.
And now they face a country that has a central defense consisting of Piero Hincapie and Willian Pacho, with Pervis Estupinan and Moises Caicedo as other strong defensive artists in their ranks
In order to get more out of this strong squad, the association has appointed a new head coach. Sebastian Beccacece, who has already coached Elche and Racing Club and spent a year as assistant coach with Argentina, took over in August.
For his debut, he was allowed to take his team to an away game in Brazil, but only narrowly lost 1:0 to the star ensemble, which is currently only in fourth place
The strong defense held up well, the Selecao hardly created any top chances. Ecuador were knocked out of the Copa America in the quarter-finals, losing narrowly on penalties to world champions and eventual tournament winners Argentina.
The only time the defense faltered in the tournament was against Venezuela (1:2), which was also due to the fact that Ecuador had to play almost the entire game short-handed after receiving a red card.
Conclusion: Ecuador have won two of their three home games in the World Cup qualifiers and are still unbeaten, conceding just one goal. Now they face Peru, who are bottom of the table. The hosts are not known for their resounding victories.
The harmless Peru offense is likely to struggle against the top-class defense, which is the second-best in the South American qualifying group, as so many top footballing nations have done recently.
In terms of personnel, there is a massive difference in quality and Ecuador also have the right to play at home. For me, this matchup is a clear-cut affair. Incidentally, there have been no relevant direct duels recently, the last match was two and a half years ago.
My Ecuador Peru tip: Win Ecuador & Under 4.5 goals
