Estonia – Italy Prediction World Cup Qualifiers, Group I, Matchday 6, 10/11/2025 at 8:45 p.m.
The Squadra Azzurra must continue to worry about their participation in the 2026 World Cup, even though new head coach Gennaro Gattuso has done a solid job so far.
Full concentration is once again required against the Balts – no points can be dropped, even if German betting providers see Italy cruising to a completely unchallenged victory against a hopeless opponent.
My personal Estonia vs. Italy prediction: The favorites will take all three points, but a clear victory is unlikely.
The visitors will quickly realize that it won’t be quite so easy to repeat their 5-0 victory from the first leg.
Estonia vs. Italy AI predictions:
We don’t need to have a long discussion about why the Balts are the clear underdogs. However, I still find some aspects of our Estonia vs. Italy AI prediction too extreme.
I think it’s simply too risky to declare Italy’s victory with HC – 5 at odds of around 10.00 at almost every betting provider with Paysafecard as promising (even if the odds are great).
After all, the Azzurri only narrowly beat Israel 5-4 on the last match day and also have a forward line that I simply don’t think is good enough to tempt me into making this risky bet.
Predicted chance of winning:
| Estonia win |
Draw |
Italy win |
| 3.8% |
9.5% |
86.7% |
Both teams to score, on the other hand, promises a first-class risk-return ratio. If successful, you turn one euro into almost three – and that’s quite a lot for this type of bet.
I know that the Balts only managed a 0-0 draw against Andorra in their last home international, but the Italian defense has conceded at least three goals in four of their last seven international matches.
In line with this, an Italy win despite conceding a goal currently promises a juicy profit multiplier of 3.75x after registering with Bet365, which I would personally jump at immediately.
What you need to consider when betting on Estonia vs. Italy
- Italy won the first leg 5-0 and scored an xG value of 4.73
- Moise Kean scored a total of 3 goals in his last 2 international matches
- The Italians conceded 3+ goals in 4 of their last 7 international matches
- Italy has won each of its 8 international matches against Estonia – 6 of them without conceding a goal
