Europa League, Thursday, 2/13/2025 at 6:45 PM
Would you want to face Jose Mourinho at the start of a knockout round? Not necessarily! RSC Anderlecht travel to Istanbul on Thursday to face Fenerbahce. Some just made it into the playoffs, while others would have advanced directly by a hair’s breadth – but who is who?
In our Europa League tips, the canaries didn’t cover themselves in glory, so they are the ones who should be very happy with their current round. And yet, on Thursday I see them slightly ahead, which is why I’m taking the “Double Chance 1X” bet at under 3.5 goals.
Both teams were equally likely to get narrow results in this group stage, but for Fener this often ended in a draw. Anderlecht, on the other hand, first have to explain how they managed to blow a direct qualification.
It is not easy to pigeonhole these two clubs, in any case. The first leg is simply about getting a good starting position for what awaits a week later.
So in the end, I assume that the home side will at least not lose. And who knows, maybe the fans will see a draw again, whether 0-0, 1-1 or 2-2, their club has everything in its repertoire!
The bookmakers’ prediction
Fenerbahce picked up ten points in the preliminary round – and are still the overwhelming favorites on Thursday! If you take a look at our German bookmakers, you will see that the average odds don’t even reach 1.50.
Speaking of German bookmakers, you can also bet on political territory and bet on who will be ahead in the federal election on February 23. The betting fans have collected all the forecasts for this important day.
The bookmakers don’t exactly see the guests from Anderlecht as having much of a chance. If you want to bet on an away win, you have to be quite willing to take risks, because the odds are 6.40.
A draw would probably not please the fans of the canaries, after all, they can no longer see the eternal international point-sharing. But if you bet on the draw for that very reason, you can look forward to odds of 4.50.
No question about it, the AI also wonders what these first Europa League playoffs will bring us. So what betting suggestions did ChatGPT come up with for this game?
I’ll go along with the relatively high-risk tip, because it involves a draw. Given how often Fenerbahce shared points in the group stage, I think this bet is anything but unlikely.
In the medium-risk range, you can try for a draw after 45 minutes. Both teams were in this situation four times in the group stage, so it is quite possible that a fifth time is on the cards.
If Anderlecht score on Thursday, you are in the low-risk area. Fenerbahce only kept a clean sheet once in the group stage, which is enough for me to say: go for it!
Analysis: Fenerbahce vs Anderlecht
That was close! Fenerbahce almost went out of the Europa League, but somehow managed to be the last team to make it to the playoffs. With only two measly wins, the team shouldn’t be surprised that it was just enough.
After beating Royale Union 2-1 on the first matchday, they first drew 1-1 with Twente and Manchester United, before the 3-1 defeat to Alkmaar put the Canaries under pressure.
The 2-1 win over Slavia Prague initially eased the situation a little, but there would be no more victories. 0-2 against Bilbao, 0-0 against Lyon and 2-2 against Midtjylland, they could not be satisfied after these performances.
The Turks only took the lead once, but they did manage to get something from four of the games after falling behind. The nine goals scored are also poor, especially considering that they managed 57 in 22 league games.
Odds analysis
With the exception of the 2-1 on the first matchday, Fener never took the lead in this preliminary round! In this respect, I can imagine that Anderlecht can score the first goal. If that is the case, the odds at Betano climb to 3.10.
At the same time, because the Turks have only led at half-time once, I think the “double chance X2” after the first 45 minutes is also a good option. Here we would be at odds of 1.80.
If I had to choose an outcome bet, I would go for a 1-1 draw. Fener has only scored nine goals and won just one home game. As for Anderlecht, their current form is not quite right. Therefore, the odds of 9.00 could be well worth it.
Fenerbahce vs. Anderlecht: How stable are the Turks?
Three times it was a double pack, but Fener should not score three or more goals. Even the home advantage was not necessarily one in the previous round, with a narrow victory, two draws and a defeat, things went very badly.
How confident is the team approaching the task of Anderlecht? Some players may know that their club has lost four of the last six European knockout games.
Perhaps the canaries are also counting on the fact that they recently won their sixth game in a row in the Süper Lig, and I haven’t noticed the team being that consistent this season.
Anderlecht has to stay behind
Those who support Fenerbahce will know: not all stars are fit. Caglar Söyüncü, Ismail Yüksek, ALexander Djiku, Dominik Livakovic and Mert Muldür are at risk of missing out, while Diego Carlos will definitely not be able to take the field.
The last time Fener and Anderlecht met was in the group stage of the Europa League in 2018. 2-2 away, 2-0 at home, the Turks had the upper hand that time.
How could it even happen that RSC Anderlecht slipped into the playoffs in 2024/25? Actually, the Belgians seemed to be through already! They started the preliminary round so confidently, but ended up going off course.
2:1 against Ferencvaros and Real Sociedad, 2:0 against Rasgrad, 1:1 against RFS and 2:2 against Porto, plus a 2:1 against Slavia Prague, the path seemed to lead directly to the knockout phase. Even after the 0:2 against Viktoria Pilsen, things still looked good.
Ultimately, it was the crisis-stricken Hoffenheim, of all teams, that put a spoke in the Anderlecht wheel. The defense was caught off guard four times, with the 3:4 defeat the result of one mistake too many.
In any case, the Belgians only managed to keep a clean sheet in the 2-0 win over Rasgrad. So they have always conceded away from home, three times exactly one goal. A total of ten goals have been scored away from home, seven of them in the first half.
My Fenerbahce Anderlecht tip:
Fenerbahce played a group stage that no one could be proud of. They only just made it into the playoffs, and the nine goals scored were not enough to satisfy the canaries, who are so offensive in the Süper Lig.
Anderlecht could have spared themselves the trip to Istanbul, where I couldn’t figure out why the last two games ended without a point. So I favor Fener, but only by a narrow margin.
That means “double chance 1X” for a start, but that’s not all. The Mourinho team is having a hard time in attack, and Anderlecht’s goal average is only just over 1.0 when playing away. So my final tip is:
Fenerbahce won’t lose with a maximum of three goals!
