Süper Lig Matchday 32, Sunday, 04.05.2025 at 18:00
It’s that time again: the soccer world is looking to Istanbul. Five matchdays remain, and Fenerbahce’s chances of winning the title are slim, trailing Galatasaray by five points, but they’re still in it.
So my Fenerbahce Besiktas prediction is going to be really exciting: Can the Black Eagles secure third place and make Gala almost certain champions? In any case, I’ll tell you now why I think both teams will score.
It’s like Fenerbahce is jinxed: They’re having another pretty strong season, but Galatasaray is outdoing them, just like in 2023/24. Last season, the duel between the two captivated the whole of Europe.
Now, there is once again a big gap between the leading duo, with 21 points separating the two rivals. The Canaries have 23 wins, six draws and two defeats. They have 75 points so far, but Gala have collected five more.
80:31 for Fenerbahçe, 78:30 for Galatasaray – there is actually very little between these two teams. Jose Mourinho’s side tend to show nerves more often, and that could cost them the title again.
After the 3-3 draw with Kayserispor, the hoped-for reaction came in the 3-1 win over Gaziantep. There have been at least three goals in eleven of the last 14 games, and eight times there were exactly three.
So if you think that 2.5 goals will be scored on Sunday, you can get odds of 2.45 at Betano. At the same time, however, I also recognize that Fenerbahce has only kept two clean sheets at home since the beginning of November.
3:3, 4:1, 0:0, 3:0, 3:1, 3:2, 3:2, 2:1, 3:1, 3:1, 4:0 – boredom certainly doesn’t look like this. That works out to an average of 3.5 goals in their own stadium, and Fenerbahce has only lost once at home.
The defeat came in the fall against Galatasaray of all teams, and now they can’t afford to lose their nerve in the next derby. In four of their last five games, Fener conceded a goal in the first half.
With Mert Müldür and Allan Saint-Maximin out of the derby, two important players will have to be replaced. The team is looking to get revenge for the first half of the season, when they lost 0-1 to Besiktas.
Since the 2004/05 season, the Canaries have only once failed to win both derbies in a single season. That happened in 2020/21 and, given the coronavirus pandemic, can perhaps be considered a blip.
However, with two wins from their last ten games, it really doesn’t sound as if Besiktas are a favorite opponent. The last eight encounters at the Sükrü Stadium have produced 32 goals, with both clubs scoring in each of the last six.
How do the experts at our betting providers with PayPal function rate this derby? They are offering odds that can be estimated at an average of 1.53 to 5.40.
David against Goliath, then? Besiktas cannot let it end like this, of course. The Black Eagles want to finish at least third, which means they have to overtake Epyüspor.
After only one win in six games, there was finally something to cheer about again with a 5-1 win over Hatayspor. It was only the second time since the end of September that they managed to score more than two goals.
Who did they get this one win against in the midst of their crisis? Galatasaray, of course. However, the same applies to the 5-1 win, which was at home, but this time Besiktas will not have their fans behind them.
Two of their last twelve away games have ended in victory, a record that leaves plenty of room for improvement. In addition, they have scored only 19 goals on the road. Curiously, with 13 goals conceded, the Eagles have the best defense.
And yet: Besiktas has only gone into halftime with a 0-0 score three times on the road. Goals in the first 45 minutes are a given for the bookmakers anyway, with this bet offering odds of just 1.30, making it something for the very risk-averse.
Besiktas, which should suit Fenerbahce, will also be without two important players on Sunday. Gabriel Paulista and Ernest Muci are unavailable and will have to watch from the sidelines.
Is it Besiktas of all teams? Fenerbahce could well see their title dreams buried if they slip up against Besiktas and rivals Galatasaray win at the weekend. But the Canaries are not willing to let it come to that, of course.
They are looking for revenge for the 0-1 defeat in the first leg. My analysis has impressively shown that anything is possible offensively, but the defense, even at home, tends to make quite a few mistakes.
As the visitors are still fighting for third place, I expect an entertaining back-and-forth game. And since the last derbies at the Sükrü Stadium have been really turbulent, my tip is:
Both teams to score!
