Champions League Quali, second leg, Tuesday, 13.08.2024 at 19:00
A goal in stoppage time to make it 2-1 – what drama for the second leg! In our Champions League qualifying tips, things really get down to business on Tuesday as Jose Mourinho aims to lift his team into the play-offs in Istanbul despite falling behind.
The star coach of course knows that OSC Lille will bring a head start with them to the Bosphorus, but at the same time he is also aware of the quality of his team. Will it be enough to turn around the deficit in front of their own fans?
Despite scoring fewer goals, the Canaries have already had a successful start to the league campaign, so they will want to carry this momentum with them on Tuesday. Lille are anything but a favorite opponent, with none of their three head-to-head meetings so far ending in victory
It’s definitely not an easy task for me to assess both clubs in such a way that I can make a correct prediction. After all, both Fener and Lille are at the beginning of the season, so they can’t be completely in rhythm yet.
My Fenerbahce Lille tip will of course try everything, because there is only one place left in the playoffs. I’ll tell you why I’m betting on a really close game and why I think both will score!
The bookmakers’ prediction
Fenerbahce must win to make up the deficit. Nevertheless, the bookmakers are relatively optimistic that they will succeed, with the odds averaging 1.90.
A win for the visitors, on the other hand, is a good 4.00. This is logical, as Lille do not necessarily have to win to make the play-offs. A draw would be enough, but playing for a draw is of course dangerous.
What about this draw, is the result realistic? With an average of 3.70, the values are in the normal range, although the first leg almost ended without a winner
Analysis: Fenerbahce vs Lille
A defeat in stoppage time? Not at all what Jose Mourinho loves! The Portuguese has been in charge of Fenerbahce for a few weeks now, and of course it’s all about titles, titles and more titles.
Let’s look back: in 2023/24, they scored 99 points and were actually NOT champions with this record! As runners-up, they now have to take the detour via qualifying to play in the top flight
The drawn opponent is anything but easy: Lille! Fener first met the French side in the 2009/10 season, losing 2-1 and 1-1 in the Europa League.
The defeat was away from home, and that is exactly what happened again. A few days ago, Jayden Oosterwolde scored an own goal, which Irfan Can Kahveci equalized with a free-kick in minute 79
Quota analysis
The 1×2 bets are anything but easy to evaluate this time. Fenerbahce MUST win, while Lille could wait and see. Therefore, I think the draw is actually the most plausible solution.
At the same time, Fenerbahce’s matches in the Champions League qualifiers may be quite high-scoring so far, but their start in the league has been quite different. Since the Great Danes can concentrate on defending, I’d rather bet on “Under 2.5 goals” at odds of 2.35.
At the same time, these tips literally scream for a result bet. A draw with few goals, but goals on both sides? Actually, the only option here is 1:1, which has odds of 7.00 at Bet365
Spectacle or bore?
When many had expected a 1-1 draw in the first leg, Edon Zhegrova struck again in stoppage time and Fenerbahce left the pitch as losers. At the same time, however, we know that it was only a matter of nuances that were missing for victory.
A few days later, the new season kicked off in Turkey for the Canaries with a home game against Adana Demirspor. The spectators did not get to see much, as their team won 1:0.
Edin Dzeko bagged the win, a result that is far from routine for Fenerbahce. Before they faced Lille in the qualifiers, FC Lugano awaited. 4:3 and 2:1, that was fun to watch!
Does Dzeko make the difference?
Now, of course, we don’t know Jose Mourinho as a lover of spectacles, he prefers to keep a clean sheet. Caglar Söyüncü was signed especially for this purpose, while Youssel En-Nesyri is expected to cause a sensation up front.
Nevertheless, Edin Dzeko is likely to be the main focus on Tuesday. He has played four competitive matches this season and scored five times! In the Bet365 app, another goal beckons with very profitable odds of 2.62.
Of course, the players know that only a win counts against Lille. The visitors, on the other hand, could take it a little easier. First of all: The league in France has not yet started, and the Great Danes only had to start in the current qualifying round
Or to put it another way: Lille have only played one match this season, that against Fenerbahce. They have a new coach in Bruno Genesio, who is trying to compensate for the departure of central defender Leny Yoro.
Not everything worked out during the preparation. 0:1 against Wolfsburg, 3:1 against Celta Vigo, 2:2 against Genk, 1:0 against Gent, 1:1 against Mechelen, it was really all there and showed that it is not so easy to get into a rhythm
A few months ago, the Great Danes were desperate to land an international success, but were eliminated on penalties against Aston Villa in a very unfortunate and bitter manner.
In 2023/24, they played six times away from home in this competition, winning only 50 percent of them. That should be warning enough ahead of the trip to Istanbul, because a defeat against Fenerbahce is quickly conceded
My tip:
Can Fenerbahce fight back and still make the Champions League play-offs? It probably won’t be easy to turn around a 2-1 defeat against Lille, especially as they have never conceded a goal in this competition.
4:3, 2:1, now 1:2, the results are not without precedent, and the 1:0 against Adana from the Süper Lig doesn’t really fit in. At the same time, Lille are very difficult to assess because they’ve only played a competitive match once before in 2024/25.
For this reason, I think we’ll see a rather entertaining match in which both teams will have their chances and won’t be quite as secure defensively. Mistakes in defense mean in my eyes:
Both teams will score!
