Conference League Quarter-final second leg, Thursday, 17.04.2025, 18:45
When making a reasonable Fiorentina Celje prediction, it must be taken into account that the hosts will not let themselves be beaten. The two-time UECL finalists are too experienced to be caught out in this situation.
I’ll now go through the most interesting betting options with you, as well as some great offers such as the Betano promo code and a decent odds boost. Both can be combined wonderfully for this quarter-final second leg!
After a 2-1 away win in the first leg, Fiorentina has put itself in a good position to reach the Conference League semi-finals for the third time in a row.
And yet, the performance in Slovenia was not as dominant as many had expected. The hosts fought back hard, equalized from the penalty spot and made life difficult for the favored Viola for long periods of the game.
One thing is clear: a focused and determined performance will be needed in the second leg. Not least because reaching the semi-finals would be the surest way back into European competition.
La Viola are currently eighth in the league and in danger of missing out on a place in the top four. The focus on the Conference League is therefore not just a matter of prestige, but a sporting necessity.
Home advantage could be the deciding factor. Fiorentina have won all four of their home games in the current Conference League season, scoring at least two goals in each.
The team’s record at the Artemio Franchi has also been solid in domestic competitions recently. Six wins from the last eight home games in all competitions speak for themselves.
In these games, the team repeatedly managed to take control through patient build-up play, expose weaknesses in the opposition’s defense, and dominate the game early on.
Despite minor rotation, there is usually enough creativity in attack to break down deep-lying opponents. And against Celje, they will once again rely on possession, patience, and play down the wings.
Set pieces could also play a role, as this is where Celje showed themselves to be vulnerable on several occasions in the first leg.
The opponents, on the other hand, are traveling with the knowledge that it will be much tougher this time around.
They were able to keep up in the first leg, but the reality is different away from home. Six of their last seven Conference League away games have been lost. Five of those were by at least two goals.
Celje have scored away from home recently, but their defense remains shaky, especially when under constant pressure.
The morale is good, as shown by the strong reaction after the 0-2 defeat in the first leg, but in terms of quality, it will probably not be enough over 90 minutes in Florence.
The workload of the last few weeks could also take its toll. Three competitive games in seven days are not a matter of course for a team of this caliber – especially not in a pressure situation like this.
In terms of betting, there are therefore several interesting options. “Fiorentina to win & over 2.5 goals” offers solid odds of around 1.85. Given the home strength and attacking power of the hosts, this is a realistic scenario.
The handicap tip “Fiorentina to win with HC -1” is also worth considering, at around 1.95.
Those who are not afraid to take a small risk can bet on a home win to nil. Currently, the odds are around 2.30, which offers some value given Celje’s poor away form. However, I personally still expect Slovenia to score a consolation goal.
For a little more excitement: A 3-1 home win is a realistic result and will get you odds of around 10.0 at many bookmakers.
If you prefer to bet on goal scorers: Rolando Mandragora has proven himself to be a game-changer in the Conference League on several occasions and is also guaranteed to offer above-average odds.
Alternatively, an early goal is also a possibility. Fiorentina have often been particularly strong in the first 30 minutes of their recent home games, while Celje have fallen behind before half-time in four of their last five European away games.
Bottom line, I expect a confident performance from Fiorentina on Thursday, who, with all due respect to Celje’s determination and willingness to run, are simply two classes better.
A clear win, a place in the semi-finals and another step towards European football in 2025/26 should be within reach.
Conclusion: It should be an entertaining game with a possible 3-1 win for the hosts.
The Slovenians should keep up well at times, but not as strongly as in the first leg a week ago. The Italians are simply too experienced for that.
Even though Fiorentina have slipped a little recently at national level, they are still too strong to allow the lead from the first leg to be jeopardized in any way.
My Fiorentina Celje prediction: There will be over 3.5 goals in total.
