Serie A, Sunday, 16/03/2025 at 6:00 PM
Thiago Motta can now forget about winning the Scudetto in his first season as coach of Juventus Turin. Nevertheless, qualifying for the Champions League is still a realistic goal.
I still see the 4-0 defeat of the Old Lady against Atalanta as an exception for the time being and am playing my Fiorentina Juventus tip at Betway on “Fiorentina under 0.5 goals”. I’m happy to take the risk of this bet if it means I have a chance of winning 2.47 times.
Before Juve received a historic thrashing from Atalanta Bergamo (0-4) last weekend, the Old Lady was on the rise again in the Serie A standings.
The Italian record champions should not be too annoyed about the lost game – the previous five wins in a row had gradually met their own expectations again.
As has been evident for much of the season, Juve won these games not on the back of their own offense, but much more because of their rock-solid defense.
Since both teams have a win rate of more than 2.20, I would still only address a three-way bet with a free bet.
Thiago Motta is pleased with his team’s third place in the return table. So far, no Serie A team has kept a clean sheet more often than Juve (14 clean sheets).
Possession football coupled with vigilant work after losing the ball helped the guests to many clean sheets away from home (46 percent).
As guests at Fiorentina’s football temple, the Italian record champions will presumably focus on defense again. That’s not the worst idea against the Violets.
Robin Gosens and his teammates have scored just nine goals in nine second-half games and have played out 21 percent of their home games goalless.
Furthermore, the more recent encounters have often had the better end for the Turin side.
Juve are undefeated in their last five league games against ACF Fiorentina (4W, 1D) and have kept a clean sheet in four of those five meetings.
To add to that, the hosts have not created anywhere near as many expected goals (36.5 xG) as they have scored (43). Therefore, a decline in the goal rate can be expected.
The bookmakers do not expect many goals in this game anyway. The offers of the best betting providers for “under 2.5 goals in the game” do not quite reach the magical mark of 1.70.
The first round duel contained a surprising number of goals (2:2), but in the context of previous matches between Fiorentina and Juve, it is a clear outlier.
Before this season, eight consecutive meetings between these two teams were called “under 2.5 goals”.
Almost as high was the rate of comparisons in which a team left the field without scoring – seven of the nine previous encounters fulfilled the necessary conditions for a bet on “both teams score – no”.
Following on from that, it is worth using this Bet365 betting bonus for the odds of 1.77 on “BTS – No”.
Of course, it would be ideal for my Fiorentina Juventus tip if the hosts were to sneak off the field without scoring. Judging by their current form in the Serie A (4 defeats in the last 5 league games), that is also the more realistic option.
Two players in particular could jeopardize my Fiorentina Juventus prediction. Moise Keane (15 goals this season) is now under contract with the violets, but has already worn the jersey of the Old Lady in his career.
His counterpart on the other side is Dusan Vlahovic (9 goals this season), but Randal Kolo Muani (5 goals) has surpassed him since the winter.
Among the 13 best teams in the second half of the season, you won’t find a team that has scored fewer goals than Fiorentina (9).
Juve is not just known for winning games without conceding goals.
My Fiorentina Juventus betting tip: Fiorentina DO NOT SCORE!
