First coach to be sacked odds and candidates – who will be the first to go?
Will it be a coach from a team predicted to be relegated, or a coach from a team that had higher goals but is lagging behind due to a poor start to the season?
Which Bundesliga coach will be the first to go?
Predictions, assessments, and analysis: These are the favorites for the first Bundesliga coach to be fired in 2025/26.
First coach to be fired betting odds & favorites
- Merlin Polzin (Hamburger SV): –
- Gerardo Seoane (Borussia M’gladbach): –
- Steffen Baumgart (Union Berlin): –
- Christian Ilzer (TSG Hoffenheim): –
- Lukas Kwasniok (1. FC Köln): –
- Paul Simonis (VfL Wolfsburg): –
- Alexander Blessin (St. Pauli): –
- Ole Werner (RB Leipzig): –
- Horst Steffen (Werder Bremen): –
- Erik ten Hag (Bayer Leverkusen): –
- Sandro Wagner (FC Augsburg): –
- Bo Henriksen (Mainz 05): –
- Niko Kovac (Borussia Dortmund): –
- Sebastian Hoeneß (VfB Stuttgart): –
- Dino Toppmöller (Eintracht Frankfurt): –
- Frank Schmidt (1. FC Heidenheim): –
- Julian Schuster (SC Freiburg): –
- Vincent Kompany (FC Bayern): –
First coach to be sacked odds: Who will be the first to go?
It’s a question that is somewhat morally questionable, but nevertheless comes up every year before and shortly after the start of the season: Which Bundesliga coach will be the first to go?
At first glance, the list of candidates for the first Bundesliga coaching dismissal is very extensive. It could happen to almost anyone – both coaches of relegation candidates and coaches of clubs with higher ambitions. A lot depends on the start of the season: if it goes wrong, things can often happen very quickly.
Who are the favorites for the first Bundesliga coaching dismissal of the 2025/26 season?
Among the candidates for the first coaching change in the Bundesliga, the trio of Merlin Polzin from Hamburger SV, Steffen Baumgart from Union Berlin, and, above all, Christian Ilzer (Hoffenheim) are likely to be at the forefront for a variety of reasons.
Christian Ilzer is probably one of the bookmakers’ favorites to be sacked in the Bundesliga (if there are any) because he was involved in a relegation battle with TSG last season. He was actually brought in to avoid that.
However, because Hoffenheim was unable to find a suitable replacement for him at the end of the season, he was allowed to stay on. Now, Ilzer is – if you will – on probation. A weak start to the season with TSG could make Ilzer the first Bundesliga coach to be sacked in 2025.
This could also affect Steffen Baumgart. With Union Berlin, he managed to secure the club’s place in the league quite comfortably last season, but ultimately more than 13th place was probably hoped for. If Berlin find themselves stuck at the bottom of the table early on, things could get tight for Baumgart.
Another candidate in the prediction for the first Bundesliga coach to be sacked is HSV coach Merlin Polzin. Although he led Hamburg back to the Bundesliga after seven years in the second division, everyone knows that gratitude is (almost) non-existent.
A poor start to the season and Polzin could be sacrificed. Especially since things can quickly become very turbulent in Hamburg when things aren’t going well on the pitch. Polzin also has no Bundesliga experience.
First Bundesliga coach to be sacked odds 2025: Who else is in danger?
Which candidates could still be in the running for the “First Bundesliga coach to be sacked odds” for the 2025/26 season?
First and foremost, the coaches of those clubs expected to be fighting relegation are at the forefront of the “first coach change” predictions. In addition to Polzin (HSV), Ilzer (Hoffenheim), and Baumgart (Union), this could also affect Alexander Blessin of FC St. Pauli.
Blessin managed to keep the Kiez club in the league last season, but the second year after promotion is expected to be the most difficult. How big his bonus for staying up last season is will become clear if the team suffers a string of defeats.
The same could be true for Gerardo Seoane. Although there were signs of improvement under the Swiss coach, finishing 10th with 45 points was certainly not a quantum leap compared to the previous season’s dismal performance.
There is already unrest at the club following the bizarre Neuhaus video. A poor start to the season and things could happen in the Lower Rhine region.
1. FC Köln may have been promoted, but the “promotion coach” is no longer there. Lukas Kwasniok took over in the cathedral city. He does not have the bonus of being the promoted coach, nor does he have any Bundesliga experience.
So if the start of the season goes wrong and the cathedral city club finds itself stuck at the bottom of the table early on, this could possibly be the first Bundesliga coaching change.
Five other coaches are also new ahead of the start of this Bundesliga season. How likely do you think it is that they will be the first coach to be sacked in 2025?
Sandro Wagner should be able to work in peace at FC Augsburg, even if things get off to a bumpy start. The same is likely to apply to Horst Steffen at Werder Bremen. Will this duo feature in the bookmakers’ odds for the first coaching change? Hard to believe.
However, things could look a little different for three other newcomers: the somewhat controversial Erik ten Hag is taking on the difficult legacy of Xabi Alonso at Bayer Leverkusen, and Paul Simonis is trying his hand at VfL Wolfsburg, where no coach has been able to work permanently and in peace recently.
Ole Werner left tranquil Bremen for wannabe champions RB Leipzig. Here, he will feel real pressure right from the start and will have to deliver.
However, if Werner struggles to get off the ground in Leipzig, he could be the first Bundesliga coach to be sacked. In 2022, the club quickly pulled the plug on Domenico Tedesco when they realized it wasn’t working out, making him the first Bundesliga coach to be sacked that season.
The 18 Bundesliga coaches for the 2025/26 season
Many other coaches have a kind of “job security.” That’s why they are given very high odds in the Bundesliga coach dismissal betting odds – if they are given any odds at all.
In addition to Bayern’s championship coach Vincent Kompany, this also applies to Julian Schuster (SC Freiburg), Sebastian Hoeneß (VfB Stuttgart), Dino Toppmöller (Eintracht Frankfurt), and Frank Schmidt from 1. FC Heidenheim.
At the start of the season, it also seems hard to imagine that BVB coach Niko Kovac will appear high on the list of “first coach to be sacked odds and favorites.” Neither does Mainz coach Bo Henriksen.
How did the first Bundesliga coaching change go in the past?
Last season, the first Bundesliga coach sacking was announced in Bochum. On October 20, Peter Zeidler had to clear out his locker. A season earlier, FC Augsburg saw the first coaching change in the Bundesliga. Enrico Maaßen was dismissed in October.
In the 2020/21 season, Schalke coach David Wagner was the bookmakers’ number one favorite to be sacked. The bookmakers’ “first coach change odds” quickly proved to be accurate: Wagner was fired on the second matchday.
Wagner was only the fourth coach in the almost 60-year history of the Bundesliga to be sacked after the second matchday. Previously, this had only happened to Rinus Michels (Cologne 1983), Morten Olsen (Cologne 1995) and Dieter Hecking (Hannover 2009).
The first Bundesliga coaching change in fall 2019, on the other hand, was a real bombshell: Bayern coach Niko Kovac was the victim. That was in early November.
First Bundesliga coaching change since 2012
- 2024/25: Peter Zeidler (VfL Bochum)
- 2023/24: Enrico Maaßen (FC Augsburg)
- 2022/23: Domenico Tedesco (RB Leipzig)
- 2021/22: Mark van Bommel (VfL Wolfsburg)
- 2020/21: David Wagner (Schalke 04)
- 2019/20: Niko Kovac (Bayern Munich)
- 2018/19: Tayfun Korkut (VfB Stuttgart)
- 2017/18: Andries Jonker (VfL Wolfsburg)
- 2016/17: Viktor Skripnik (Werder Bremen)
- 2015/16: Lucien Favre (Gladbach)
- 2014/15: Mirko Slomka (HSV)
- 2013/14: Bruno Labbadia (VfB Stuttgart)
- 2012/13: Felix Magath (VfL Wolfsburg)
Wolfsburg is the Bundesliga club with the most first Bundesliga coach dismissals since 2012: The VW club was responsible for the first Bundesliga coach dismissal three times: Felix Magath in 2012, Andries Jonker in 2017, and Mark van Bommel in 2022.
VfB Stuttgart ranks second in the “first Bundesliga coach dismissal” ranking with two first dismissals.
The 2015/16 season saw a particularly dramatic turn of events: Lucien Favre resigned as coach of Borussia Mönchengladbach with immediate effect after five defeats in the first five games – even though he had led the “Foals” to third place and into the Champions League in the previous season.
The odds on Favre being the first Bundesliga coach to be sacked were around 70.0 (!) at the time.
Who offers bets on coach dismissals?
Which betting providers offer “first Bundesliga coach to be sacked odds” for the first coach dismissal of the 2025/26 season?
In the past, betting odds for Bundesliga coach dismissals could always be found at Bet-at-home and Bwin.
In recent years, this betting duo has regularly included “first Bundesliga coach change odds” in their soccer betting programs.
However, for licensing reasons, betting providers in Germany are no longer allowed to offer (fun) bets on coach dismissals in Germany.
In Austria, there are no restrictions in this regard. It is therefore up to the bookmakers themselves whether they offer betting odds for Bundesliga coach dismissal favorites.
