Bundesliga 9th matchday, Saturday, 02.11.2024 at 3:30 pm
Sorrow has been the norm in Bochum for years. For the third year in a row, VfL is still waiting for its first win of the season after eight match days.
Realistically, the guests should also end today’s matchday without a win and have to make the journey home with another defeat under their belts.
Eintracht, who are sixth in the Bundesliga table and just one point behind the top four, are the clear favorites in the Frankfurt Bochum betting tip.
VfL interim coach Markus Feldhoff recently changed the formation compared to his predecessor, sending his team out on the field with a back three and relieving them of their duties from the unpopular midfield diamond.
Despite the clear defeat against Munich, there was a minimal amount of progress to be seen, but that will not be enough for the eagle-bearers to be able to score points.
Instead, I expect a “Frankfurt win with handicap -1” in my Frankfurt Bochum betting tip and play the corresponding odds of 1.87 at Betano.
The betting providers’ prediction?
SGE have only lost one of their last 14 Bundesliga home games across all seasons. The season started well for the men in the eagle shirts and win odds of up to 1.35 are an acceptable odds level. If you want to spice up this value a bit, you can use an odds boost.
Bochum have lost seven of their eight league games this season, including all four away games. It should come as no surprise if the visitors’ previous win rates of around 8.00 continue to rise by the weekend.
Even a point draw is advertised at an above-average rate in the Frankfurt Bochum betting tip and, in the unlikely event of a win, will provide you with a six-fold profit.
KI prediction Frankfurt vs Bochum: That’s what ChatGPT tips
I asked the AI a question and demanded three answers. How would you bet on the Bundesliga game between Frankfurt and Bochum? The obvious answer was almost too cheap for me: a Frankfurt win, which you can play at Oddset for odds of 1.32.
The second variant looks a bit more appealing. ChatGPT suggests the match combo “Both teams score & Over 2.5 goals”, which yields 1.82 times the profit in the Bwin offer. Almost everyone is likely to expect at least one goal from SGE in this game. A goal for Bochum would be possible based on the expected goals against of the Hessians (14.66 xGA).
The third option contains the highest risk and would elicit odds of 2.70 from Tipwin. For that, Frankfurt would have to win both halves. I see the potential for that with Eintracht, but for me there would be other variants that I am more inclined towards.
Analysis: Frankfurt vs Bochum
Everyone should have noticed the focus on counterattacks in Dino Toppmöller’s team. Frankfurt scored the most goals after transition moments (5) and has matured into an absolute top team in this discipline.
The statistics on the SGE’s playing style allow for different interpretations. According to Wyscout, the SGE allows by far the most passes per defensive action (21.49).
By positioning themselves deep, the players in the SGE create space for their own counterattacks, but have to live with many shots on goal by their opponents.
At first glance, it seems alarming that the SGE has allowed the most opposing shots in the Bundesliga (148). However, when read in the right context, this can be interpreted as a strength.
To understand this, the following statistic is helpful: Although Frankfurt conceded the fourth-most expected goals (14.66 xGA), it forced the opponent into relatively useless finishing situations at 0.10 expected goals conceded per shot (7th).
The numbers look quite different for VfL. Bochum allowed the most expected goals (20.48 xGA) and the highest xGA value per shot (0.15).
In addition, VfL has already conceded three counter-attacks and is a completely insecure team that has conceded an average of 2.50 goals per game in four away games.
Odds analysis
62 percent of the matches involving Bochum contained “Over 3.5 goals”. SGE home games were even blessed with “Over 3.5 goals” at a slightly higher rate of 67 percent.
With these values, odds of 1.88 are available for at least four goals, especially if you use this Oddset free bet for it.
The offers for “Frankfurt Over 2.5 goals” also look attractive to me. With 16.21 expected goals, the SGE has a top-3 offense and has scored 2.67 goals per home game.
In addition, VfL conceded an average of 2.75 goals in the first eight match days and did not keep any opposing offensive line on a short leash.
Frankfurt vs. Bochum odds: fast, determined and effective
Dino Toppmöller has found his winning formula for the SGE. From a deep positioning, the fast transition game should lead to victory.
So far, the plan has worked. Frankfurt has joined the top six Bundesliga teams and annoyed Bayern in their last home game (3-3).
No other Bundesliga team has scored more counter-attacking goals (5) and only RB Leipzig (16) have conceded more shots than the home side (15) after counterattacks. Omar Marmoush is and remains the target man in attack.
During the week, he scored the winning goal against Gladbach after coming on as a substitute. In the German top flight, he leads the scoring list together with Harry Kane (9 goals, 4 assists). He was also directly involved in every counter-attack goal scored by the Hessians (3 goals, 2 assists)!
The right finishing position
The transitions of the Hessen showcase the individual class of the offensive players. The faster the forward movement, the better the SGE players seem to find the right space.
Frankfurt shines with incredible finishing quality, represented by the highest expected goals per shot (0.15) and the fourth-best shot conversion rate in the Bundesliga (14.68 percent).
At VfL Bochum, the path to the dangerous zones is either blocked or the players choose unfavorable field positions for the shot on goal too often.
In any case, the bottom-placed team in the table is at the other end of the scale in the categories just mentioned.
Bochum only scored 9.59 expected goals (16th), failed to score more than 0.10 expected goals per shot (14th) and has the second-weakest shot conversion rate in the German top flight (7.07 percent).
Markus Feldhoff prefers a back three, which seems to give VfL a little more stability. But he won’t be able to reverse the current trend in just a few games.
Bochum have not won in their last 24 Bundesliga games, have conceded at least two goals in each of their last seven matches and have not kept a clean sheet in their last four encounters.
At least the guests have not been beaten by the SGE in four matches. Most recently, the two opponents drew in three consecutive matches.
However, Frankfurt has so far won two of three Bundesliga home games by at least two goals (3-1 vs. Hoffenheim, 2-0 vs. Gladbach), drew with Bayern in the third home game (3-3) and has a goal difference of 8-4 at home.
Bochum, on the other hand, have lost four Bundesliga games in a row by at least two goals.
My Frankfurt Bochum Tip:
Frankfurt is the clear favorite for me and should look forward to a confident victory. This would end a current streak of three Bundesliga games without a win in a row.
At home, the Adlterträger will be spurred on by their frenetic fans and will be able to shoot any opponent out of the stadium.
Bochum will need some time to recover from their difficult start to the season and can expect a fourth consecutive defeat.
My Frankfurt Bochum betting tip: Frankfurt win with handicap -1!
