Freiburg – Gladbach Prediction Bundesliga, Matchday 23 on Sunday, 22/02/2026 at 15:30 CET
With the help of a good betting app, I can make my Freiburg Gladbach tip for the weekend the way I like it!
For my carefully chosen combination bet “Double Chance 1X & Under 3.5 Goals” you can expect odds of around 1.80 – and even extra betting capital if you use the Betano promo code!
In any case, I categorically rule out an away win for the guests, as the currently weakening Borussia has not given me any further reason to trust them on Sunday, apart from the surprising 4-0 victory over Augsburg at the beginning of the year.
Furthermore, our internal data model expects about 2.6 goals, which is why a 1:1 or even 2:1 for the Black Forest team should be much more likely on this basis than, for example, a higher final result.
To be honest, this assessment does not surprise me in view of the loading inhibitions of the current Breisgau team in front of the opponent’s goal.
In keeping with the current Bundesliga schedule, do you want to hear a statistic that the Borussia supporters among you will not like at all with regard to Sunday?
Mönchengladbach are winless in nine Bundesliga matches against SCF (5 draws, 4 defeats) – longer than ever before against the Breisgau team. In Freiburg itself, the Foals have been waiting for a three-point win in 17 Bundesliga games.
The last and only victory in 23 Bundesliga appearances in the heart of the Black Forest came in a 1-0 win in March 2002 – with a header from Arie van Lent. A real horror record from Gladbach’s point of view.
Freiburg – Gladbach Prediction & Betting
I’m not really convinced of a victory for the Breisgau team. In fact, if given the choice, I would prefer the option Under 2.5 goals at odds of currently 1.95 to a home win bet at any time.
The reasons for this are obvious: Mönchengladbach travel with the third-weakest attack in the Bundesliga, while in the last ten competitive games of the Black Forest team an average of just 1.9 goals per game have been scored.
If I were to bet on the home side at all, it would be either by means of a freebet or the draw-no-bet option: Freiburg. Although you protect yourself from loss in the event of a point split, the odds of about 1.40 are close to the unplayability limit.
What you need to know about Freiburg vs. Gladbach betting
- Home bastion Europa-Park Stadium: Freiburg have been unbeaten on their own ground for six months; in addition to a perfect Europa League home record (4 wins), there has not been a home defeat in the Bundesliga since the first matchday
- Gladbach’s lack of goals: The Foals have won only one of their last nine competitive games – in this period, Eugen Polanski’s team have scored just 0.9 goals per game, which will be a Herculean task against the defensively strong Freiburg
- Trend towards low-scoring games: The statistics speak against a goal festival; in Freiburg’s last ten competitive games, an average of only 1.9 goals have been scored, with a maximum of two goals scored in four of the last five meetings
- Matanovic as an efficiency monster: Igor Matanovic is in brilliant form – the Croatian striker has scored three goals and provided one assist in the last eight competitive games, bringing his tally to five Bundesliga goals this season
Freiburg – Gladbach: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our Freiburg Gladbach AI prediction distrusts a victory for the home side and their supposed role as favorites even more than I do.
Because the first recommendation of my digital betting friend points me to a conventional draw bet as the most sensible 1X2 option from a purely game theory point of view.
I’ll say this much: If you can grab values from 3.40 upwards for the best Bundesliga odds on this matchday, then you’re actually in the profitable value bet area.
By the way, what our data model also believes in more than in a home win is a miserable performance by the guest offensive!
Because Gladbach under 0.5 goals at betting odds around 2.72 is criticized to me as a slight value pick – and I can only agree with that.
Freiburg are currently defending a good deal better than they can provide a goal threat themselves, while the Foals have already recorded the most Bundesliga appearances without scoring in the league to date (10 games).
The best odds for Freiburg vs. Gladbach
The bookmakers reveal timid confidence in the Breisgau team in this game, but the preference is only moderate. The Freiburg Gladbach odds reflect a match that seems neither one-sided nor completely open, but lies somewhere in between.
A home win of the SCF is noted at 2.00. The bookmakers reward home strength, game control and the ability to cope with pressure situations – they see the hosts slightly superior, but not untouchable.
The draw is 3.25. This rate fits in with a match in which Gladbach could equalise the action with clever defensive play and occasional pinpricks. A draw would be a realistic result from the markets’ point of view.
An away win for Borussia, on the other hand, is 3.90. The “Foals” travel as outsiders, but have enough individual class to catch Freiburg on the wrong foot. So a success for the guests would not be impossible, but rather surprising.
The Freiburg Gladbach odds therefore point to a match in which the sports club is slightly preferred, but Borussia could cause small shocks at any time.
Freiburg vs Gladbach Match Analysis:
If we look at the bare numbers, there are many indications of a game with long phases of possession by the Breisgau team. After all, Gladbach allows the fourth most passes per defensive action in the league and thus literally invites ball control and attacks!
Freiburg consistently exploits its strength at home: In their 14-game unbeaten streak, the Breisgau team averages 15.21 shots per game – around five more than they allow themselves.
This promises not only a high level of activity in front of the opponent’s goal, but also a constant threat to Gladbach’s defence, which is already one of the more porous in the league. Moritz Nicolas will therefore have a lot to do in the visitors’ goal again.
Despite the superiority of the hosts, Borussia could cause isolated pinpricks through counterattacks and set-pieces, but the rhythm of the game still speaks clearly in Freiburg’s favour.
The home team will circulate the ball, draw spaces and look for targeted finishes, while Mönchengladbach will have to react primarily.
In such a scenario, Freiburg is more likely to take a 1-0 lead, which then opens up the match further and thus forces Gladbach to take more risky actions!
However, I don’t want to put my hand in the fire to ensure that they actually make the breakthrough! I would be reluctant to categorically rule out a potential clean sheet like in the joint first half of the season duel.
Freiburg Form Check
The Breisgau team went down in the 3-0 defeat against Hoffenheim last week, but at home they usually show their best side. In the last six Bundesliga home games, they have won five times and drawn only once.
Their offensive and defensive balance is particularly impressive: On average, they scored two goals per home game, while conceding only 0.66 goals.
The nine home games without defeat in a row – six wins, three draws – speak for a stable team that is difficult to beat on home soil. Gladbach must therefore dress warmly!
In terms of personnel, however, there are some restrictions. Johan Manzambi is missing due to a three-game ban after the red card against Bremen, a bitter loss for the offensive.
Philipp Lienhart and Lukas Kübler are listed as questionable, but an appearance seems unlikely, they could at best be in the squad. Long-term injured players such as Daniel-Kofi Kyereh and Max Rosenfelder are definitely not available for the game against Gladbach.
Freiburg must therefore put together the line-up cleverly in order to play to their dreaded home strength despite absences.
Gladbach form check
Gladbach is still deep in crisis, and the future of coach Eugen Polanski hangs by a thread. After the recent 3-0 defeat at Frankfurt, the mood is tense, and another poor performance on Sunday could mean the end for Polanski.
Borussia have won only one of their last eleven Bundesliga games and have been in almost constant danger of relegation since mid-November.
With only a three-point lead over the relegation zone, Gladbach is now under enormous pressure to urgently collect points in order not to slip even lower.
There is hardly any relief in terms of personnel. Rocco Reitz has to take a break due to his fifth yellow card and will therefore miss the game against Freiburg. Robin Hack has returned to training, but remains unavailable.
Nathan Ngoumou and Tim Kleindienst are making progress in their rehabilitation, but may not play a role again until March.
Giovanni Reyna is to be cautiously reintroduced to training, while Alejo Sarco continues to be out for the long term. Gladbach will therefore have to improvise and rely on its remaining players to withstand the pressure.
