Freiburg – Hoffenheim Prediction Bundesliga, Matchday 5 on Sunday, 09/28/2025 at 3:30 p.m.
According to our internal prediction model, the sports club is likely to emerge victorious, but will still concede at least one goal. This is in line with my own expectations for this local derby.
As for the second condition of my Freiburg Hoffenheim prediction, which I have tested with a licensed betting provider such as Oddset or Winamax Germany, I am not worried anyway.
When these two teams meet, goals are almost always scored. The Black Forest team averages 4.0 goals per game, while the Kraichgau team averages 4.5 – so a spectacular match is almost guaranteed!
Based on the data, I also expect a positive result for the Breisgau team. TSG Hoffenheim has won only one of its last twelve Bundesliga matches against SCF (2-1 away in December 2021).
Since then, the Kraichgauers have gone seven Bundesliga games in a row without a win against the Sportclub – TSG has not waited this long for a win against any other current Bundesliga team.
Freiburg – Hoffenheim Prediction & Bets
Vincenzo Grifo to score is one of my favorite bets for this Sunday’s match, with odds of 3.20 on average.
After all, the Italian has only scored more goals in the Bundesliga against FC Augsburg (13) than against TSG (11).
For the first goal: Vincenzo Grifo, the Freiburg Hoffenheim odds are even higher at 7.90 and depend solely on your individual risk appetite. I like both goal bets equally.
What you need to know about Freiburg vs. Hoffenheim betting
- Hoffenheim has scored an average of 4.5 goals per 90 minutes this season, Freiburg 4.0 – in all eight games between the two sides, there have always been at least three goals.
- Freiburg are pressing more aggressively in 2025/26 with 10.17 PPDA, an improvement on last year’s 12.22.
- Last season, an over 2.5 goals bet was successful in 14 of Freiburg’s 17 Bundesliga games.
- Bazoumana Touré has played 11 passes into the penalty area so far – one of only eight players with double digits after four games.
Freiburg – Hoffenheim: AI tip & odds analysis
In 2025, no other club in the Bundesliga conceded as many goals as Hoffenheim (50) – and the new season also began with plenty of balls landing in their own net.
Our Freiburg Hoffenheim AI prediction takes these and other findings into account and, on this basis, recommends two bets in particular.
Namely, Freiburg to score over 1.5 goals at odds of around 1.85 and over 3.5 goals at slightly higher odds of 2.47 – if you don’t believe the Black Forest team will win.
As already mentioned, I prefer Vincenzo Grifo for a goalscorer bet, but my digital betting friend has instead focused his attention on Fisnik Asllani to score at odds of around 3.20.
In any case, I cannot dismiss the reasoning as unfounded. The Hoffenheim player has scored all four of his goals this Bundesliga season away from home (3 goals, 1 assist).
The best odds for Freiburg vs. Hoffenheim
Freiburg welcomes Hoffenheim – a duel that promises to thrill you with speed, pressing, and chances on both sides. The match will once again be broadcast by DAZN Streaming.
Merkur Bets and the state-owned provider Oddset stand out with the best odds: 2.20 for a home win for Freiburg, 3.65 for a draw and 3.20 if Hoffenheim scores away.
What makes it exciting: Freiburg brings home strength and clever combination play, while Hoffenheim can always cause a surprise with individual class.
For bettors, this means a game where courage and strategy can pay off.
Those who focus on value will find plenty of opportunities here to make their betting slip exciting – excitement guaranteed from the first to the last minute.
Freiburg vs Hoffenheim match analysis:
I expect TSG to apply pressure mainly down the wings, while Freiburg will tend to come through the middle.
The data underscores this: Hoffenheim has the best cross accuracy in the league this Bundesliga season with 38%, while Freiburg is at only 15%.
By comparison, only Bayer Leverkusen is worse than the Sportclub in this discipline, with 6%.
However, set pieces could be decisive for Freiburg. The Breisgauers have scored four goals from set pieces so far, with only two other teams in the Bundesliga more successful.
TSG, on the other hand, has already conceded eight goals from set pieces – the highest number in the league in 2025/26.
This suggests that the game could be dangerous for them despite Hoffenheim’s accurate crosses. SCF could pose a threat time and again from free kicks and corners, while Hoffe will try to create space with width and pace.
Freiburg form check
Freiburg go into this game on the back of victories over Stuttgart and Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga. They also triumphed over FC Basel in the Europa League during the week.
Grifo in particular remains a key player, scoring one goal and setting up another against Bremen.
Noah Atubolu is also causing a stir: he set a Bundesliga record by saving five consecutive penalties.
His strong performances are attracting the attention of national team coach Julian Nagelsmann and giving Freiburg additional security between the posts.
Hoffenheim form check
Hoffenheim, on the other hand, travel to Freiburg with some question marks in defense after their 4-1 defeat to Bayern, in which Harry Kane scored a hat-trick and exposed their defensive problems.
The visitors showed flashes of promise at times, but were unable to stop Bayern’s efficiency in front of goal.
In short: Julian Schuster’s home team will be hoping to confirm their improving form in front of their own fans on Sunday and pick up more important points, while Hoffenheim will be looking to be more stable away from home.
And if you ask me, the Sportclub has the slightly better cards in its hand.
