Freiburg – HSV Tip Bundesliga, Matchday 16 on Saturday, 10.01.2026 at 15:30 CET
Established German European Cup participant against a promoted team that has spent many years in the lower house? In view of the current Bundesliga schedule, I prefer to take the side of the Breisgau team full of confidence!
Especially since the odds for a Freiburg HSV bet on the Black Forest with an average of 1.80 are already attractive enough to want to convert them into a football bet, even without an additional Merkur Bets odds boost.
After all, you can usually rely on the sports club anyway – especially in front of your own crowd!
The SCF kickers, who have now been unbeaten for 10 home games in a row, have also seen much stronger opponents leave the Europa-Park Stadium empty-handed since September than HSV.
SC Freiburg apparently has a small Bundesliga curse in direct duels, although I wouldn’t attach too much importance to it.
Freiburg have won their last two competitive games against Hamburger SV, both in the DFB Cup (3-1 away in 2021/22, 2-1 at home in 2024/25), but the record in the Bundesliga is different.
Of the last eight meetings in this competition, SC have won only one (1-0 at home in September 2016), while five have ended in draws and two have been lost.
But this statistical fact alone will certainly not protect the Hanseatic team from an away defeat in the Black Forest next Saturday.
Freiburg – HSV Prediction & Betting
I have found various first-class betting providers with PayPal, where I will put one or the other additional Freiburg HSV tip to the test.
For example, Vincenzo Grifo scores at odds around 2.45. Not only do I have a good gut feeling about this bet, but I can also rely on the support of the data analysts.
Because the Italian has already been involved in each of the last three goals that his beloved sports club has scored against the Hanseatic team.
The combination bet 1st goal & win: Freiburg at odds around 2.01, on the other hand, is an interesting alternative to achieve a little more profit than in the case of a simple home win bet.
After all, I see SCF taking the lead in the first half of the game, but when exactly this goal will be scored is not quite clear to me.
What you need to know about Freiburg vs. HSV betting
- Freiburg have only lost one game at home this entire season.
- Hamburger SV is the weakest away team in the Bundesliga this season with only two points from seven games (2 draws, 5 defeats) and a goal difference of 3:16.
- HSV have never scored more than one goal per game away from home this season.
- Our internal data model predicts a clear advantage for the hosts, with a 54.7% probability of Freiburg winning and only 22.2% for HSV.
- Freiburg attackers Vincenzo Grifo (0.56 goals per 90 minutes) and Haris Tabakovic (0.64) are among the top eight goalscorers in the Bundesliga (in terms of goals per 90 minutes).
- Albert Sambi Lokonga, HSV’s leading league goalscorer (four goals), is rated at double-digit odds by bookmakers in the “anytime goal” market.
Freiburg – HSV: AI Tip & Odds Analysis
Our Freiburg HSV AI prediction clearly signals that the home side will once again hit the ground running offensively. And in fact, I can do a lot with this computer-generated betting approach.
The resulting recommendation of the Freiburg selection: Over 1.5 goals at about 1.75 I rate as very promising. After all, the Breisgau team has scored four or more goals in two of the last four Bundesliga games.
In addition, the offense around Höler and Treu is in brilliant form, especially at this stage of the season, which should further increase the chances of several SCF goals. The short winter break should not have thrown them off their game!
Some of you might also consider the AI recommendation halftime/final score 1/1 to values 2.82. Freiburg usually start with pressure and often lead to the break, while Hamburg, on the other hand, often act too sluggishly, especially away from home.
In addition, for the more risk-averse sports betting fans among you, the selection Win Freiburg with HC -1 at odds around 3.15 also seems to be a quite plausible alternative.
HSV have only picked up two points from five away games and are the only team in the league without an away win.
The best odds for Freiburg vs. HSV
Let’s now take a fresh look at the Freiburg HSV odds – a duel in which the markets see the hosts slightly ahead, but give the Hanseatic team a chance to cause unrest.
A home win for SC Freiburg is recorded at 1.80. The bookmakers rely on the combination of a stable defence, fast transition play and home advantage.
Freiburg is supposed to control the game, but the odds signal that the match will not automatically be a foregone conclusion. (Personally, however, I remain very optimistic about the prospects of this 1X2 bet).
The draw is 3.65. The bookmakers calculate a scenario in which HSV keeps the match open for a long time. A shared point win seems plausible, but is not likely.
After all, there is 4.70 for an away win for HSV. The bookies see the Hamburgers as outsiders, but transitions, set pieces and occasional pressure phases could cause surprises.
The Freiburg HSV odds thus convey a picture in which Freiburg is slightly favored, but Hamburg can set pinpricks at any time – a game that could be decided strongly by moments, efficiency and tactical discipline.
Freiburg vs HSV Match Analysis:
Freiburg struggled with the strain of Europe in the first half of the season, but the winter break gave the team time to recover. Against Hamburg, who are currently four points behind them, the Breisgau team should now be able to fully attack again!
The field tilt of 51.1, a whole 10.9 points higher than HSV’s, makes one thing very clear anyway: SCF will control the game and have a lot of possession in dangerous zones.
The home side are also extremely dangerous at set-pieces: With an xG of 0.47 from stationary balls, they lead the Bundesliga and have already scored seven goals from them.
HSV, on the other hand, has great difficulties, especially away from home, and is one of the most vulnerable teams with only a few exceptions: Only Frankfurt and Heidenheim have conceded more goals.
Freiburg’s offensive power is reflected in the fourth-best xG in the league, while Hamburg is more in the bottom half in terms of xGA. Corners in particular could be decisive, even if the promoted team has not exactly seen heaps of them converted into goals so far.
Nevertheless, there is a lot to suggest that Freiburg will control the game, build up pressure and score at least two goals, while HSV will rarely appear really dangerous in front of goal.
Freiburg Form Check
Freiburg are currently stuck in midfield, which is a bit disappointing after the strong pre-season with Europa League qualification.
Six points separate the Breisgau team from sixth place in the table, which is why the now Europa League-free phase until the end of the month offers a chance to reduce the gap to the top places.
The quality of the team remains undisputed: Freiburg are unbeaten in the Europa League and have reached the DFB Cup quarter-finals.
In the Bundesliga, however, the team shows fluctuations, with three wins, two defeats and a draw in the last six games.
A strong factor remains the home record: Freiburg are unbeaten in the last ten home games of all competitions, the longest streak since August 2022 to March 2023.
Freiburg’s games are often high-scoring: Five of the last six Bundesliga games have ended with at least three goals, including a thrilling 4-3 win against Wolfsburg. In these four Bundesliga matchdays, they scored ten goals – only Bayern was more productive with 14 goals!The attack is carried by Vincenzo Grifo, who recently became the club’s record Bundesliga goalscorer (70 goals), overtaking Nils Petersen and Haris Tabakovic.
HSV Form Check
HSV is currently only four points behind Freiburg, but is closer to the relegation battle than to the midfield of this season.
Despite a decent end to the 2025 season with two wins and a draw from the last four Bundesliga games, the biggest problem remains the away record.
As already mentioned, Hamburg is so far the only Bundesliga team without an away win, with five defeats and two draws from seven games and a poor goal difference of 3:16.
Away from home, Hamburg have never scored more than one goal and conceded at least four goals in three games, even if the total of 16 goals conceded is not the worst record in the league.
The coming month will be decisive, with difficult home games against Leverkusen and Bayern as well as away games at direct relegation rivals St. Pauli and Heidenheim. So taking points from Freiburg would not be wrong.
Offensively, however, HSV is one of the weakest teams in the league: With only 1.23 expected goals per game (xG), the team is at the bottom of the table. Consequently, I think that the “points mission” in Breisgau is doomed to failure.
Especially since the Hamburg team has not yet scored a goal from a corner and only averages 2.93 shots per game from set pieces.
