Bundesliga Matchday 32, Sunday, 04.05.2025 at 17:30
The title decision in the 1st Bundesliga is approaching – and it may even be decided before Bayer Leverkusen even takes the field on this 32nd matchday. The Werkself don’t play until Sunday and are eight points behind FC Bayern before the start of this round.
This could play a very big role in my Freiburg Leverkusen prediction, of course, because second place is absolutely certain for the Werkself. I don’t want to accuse the designated runner-up of distorting the competition, but it would also be understandable if the pressure were off.
And I admit that the starting position means that I’m going for the “double chance 1X” here. Freiburg are desperate to get into the Champions League and almost HAVE to win. It’s brutally tight, and the Baden side could find themselves empty-handed in two weeks’ time.
The showdown for third and fourth place will be a merciless affair. After three wins in a row, the Sportclub must strike, because they still have a crunch match against their direct rivals from Frankfurt on the last day of the season.
So I don’t expect it to be boring, even though there’s not much at stake for Bayer. Even if FCB loses on Saturday, they would still be five points behind with two games remaining – I don’t think the famous football miracle is in the air.
The bookmakers’ predictions?
Freiburg has lost its last three matches against Leverkusen, conceding ten goals in the process. Will that be one of the reasons why they are the underdogs on Sunday? In any case, the odds for a win are 3.20 on average at our bookies with PayPal deposits.
The visitors could just be playing for pride at this point. I’m relatively certain that this fact has been factored into the odds, as the value of 2.25 is not low.
Leverkusen has already drawn six times away from home. Since many of the last direct matches, more on that later, were very close, I wouldn’t ignore the draw at odds of 3.40.
AI prediction Freiburg vs Leverkusen: ChatGPT’s prediction
ChatGPT won’t have much to do in terms of Bundesliga predictions soon, so I’ll take another look at what the AI suggests for this match and what more or less risky bets it spits out.
A Leverkusen victory with goals at both ends is predicted. Of course, I have to disagree with this, if only because I’ve committed to the “double chance 1X” bet.
However, it is still possible that Leverkusen will score the first goal of the match. Since Bayer has only fallen behind once away from home since the end of September, I support this tip.
At the same time, the AI also predicts that both teams will score, which I agree with wholeheartedly. Both teams have scored in each of their last nine head-to-head matches, with the last three alone producing an impressive 14 goals.
Analysis: Freiburg vs Leverkusen
The situation for Bayer Leverkusen is clear: if FC Bayern lose in Leipzig on Saturday, a win in Freiburg would take them to within five points – and they would still have a TINY chance of defending their title, at least in theory.
Of course, everyone at Werkself knows that this hope is not really realistic. After the two slip-ups against Union Berlin (0-0) and St. Pauli (1-1), the recent 2-0 win against Augsburg at least delayed Bayern’s title win.
Of course, Bayer is having a strong season, having lost only twice so far. However, Bayern are simply on par or that little bit better in 2024/25, while Leverkusen drop too many points against supposedly weaker teams.
Nevertheless, it must be noted that they have not lost a single away game this season. Combined with last season, this means that Leverkusen are unbeaten in 32 away games!
Odds analysis
Leverkusen has scored twelve goals in the opening quarter of an hour, Freiburg eleven – this may point to “both teams scoring” in the first 45 minutes. At Bwin, you can get strong odds of 3.80 for this, and on top of that, you can redeem your Bwin voucher.
I also recommend taking the risk of betting on “Over 1.5 goals in the first half” – which makes sense. The odds aren’t quite as high as before, but are still estimated at 2.45.
And if I had to place a result bet, I would go for a nice-looking 2-2. With odds of 12.5, you could make a pretty nice profit here.
Freiburg vs. Leverkusen: Will Schick strike again?
FC Bayern once went 33 games unbeaten between 2012 and 2014, a record that Leverkusen could soon break. In addition, the Werkself has the best conversion rate of all clubs in 2024/25, with 47% of their chances ending up in the back of the net.
Freiburg, on the other hand, is only at 28% and thus second from bottom in the table. Freiburg will of course have to keep a close eye on Patrik Schick on Sunday, as he is the most dangerous man with 19 goals since the tenth matchday.
The corresponding goal bet will earn you odds of 2.47 at Betano. Good to know: In the first half of the season, Leverkusen won 5-1 and he scored four times.
It was their third consecutive win against Freiburg, but victories are rarely as high as they were in December. 3-2, 2-1, 1-2, 2-3, 2-1, 1-2 – the previous results were extremely close.
Freiburg fights for the top flight
Freiburg therefore has no reason to fear the opponent arriving on Sunday. The Baden-based club is currently fourth, but Leipzig and Dortmund are close behind and waiting to take their place.
In fact, the club “only” needs to continue its current run, as it already has three wins under its belt. 2-1 against Gladbach, 3-2 against Hoffenheim and 1-0 against Wolfsburg – no one is bothered that the victories were all extremely narrow.
It’s been three months since Freiburg won four games in a row, so they know what it takes. Julian Schuster’s players have scored exactly three goals in six home games, with 3-2 and 3-1 results proving very popular.
More than 2.5 goals on Sunday – is that realistic? Anyone who dares to make this prediction will be rewarded with odds of 5.30 at Betano! A 3-2 result would yield odds of 29.0, while 3-1 would pay out 27.0.
An average of 3.3 goals are scored at the Europa Park Stadium, which suggests that there will be no boredom this weekend. Freiburg has only gone into halftime with a 0-0 score once – and ended up drawing 0-0 (against Mainz).
I should also mention that ten of Baden’s 15 wins were by exactly one goal. Therefore, I think the bet “Freiburg to win by one goal” is a good one, with Bet365 offering odds of 5.00.
My Freiburg Leverkusen tip:
Leverkusen will finish second – I’m just going to go out on a limb and say it. Bayern Munich are too far ahead, and the third-placed team are even further behind. So it’s been a successful season, and their 32-game unbeaten run away from home is even more impressive.
But Freiburg are in really good form and need points in the battle for the Champions League. In addition, most of the direct duels in recent years have been close, and the Baden team has almost always played well.
That’s why, in view of the sporting goals, I’ve decided to give the home team a slight edge in this match. My logical bet is therefore:
Freiburg will get at least one point against Leverkusen!
