Bundesliga Matchday 9, Sunday, 03.11.2024 at 15:30
The 2:1 win in the DFB Cup against HSV smelled suspiciously like a classic SCF game of recent years. Two set-piece goals allowed the Breisgauers to advance to the round of 16.
At Bundesliga level, SCF have scored comparatively rarely after a resting ball (2/13 goals), which speaks in favor of the home side.
It’s hard to imagine where Freiburg would currently be if even the resting balls were to lead to goals at the level of recent years
The game against HSV showed, however, that the quality from resting balls is still there, which is largely due to Vincenzo Grifo’s precise crosses.
In my Freiburg Mainz betting tip, I believe the home side will win, even if they have to make do without a standard goal.
The bookmakers’ forecast?
The bookmakers’ buffet is full to bursting, and yet you will find a clear favorite for this pairing.
Julian Schuster has been on the sidelines for four Bundesliga home games so far and has led the Breisgau side to three wins.
Another win against a relegation candidate is quite realistic and has odds of around 1.70 with the bookmakers. In my opinion, an odds boost could massively increase the value of this bet.
Looking purely at the results, the odds of up to 5.20 for Mainz to win also offer high value. FSV are still without an away defeat this season (2S, 1U).
KI prediction Freiburg vs Mainz: ChatGPT
Before I continue with the analysis of this game, I want to give you an insight into the AI prediction. On request, ChatGPT spit out three betting options with different degrees of risk.
Obviously, the home side are the favorites in this pairing. For the very cautious, the artificial intelligence has worked out a bet on a “double chance 1X”, which Bet365 is not worth more than 1.15 odds. I would stay away from this option due to the lack of value.
I am surprised by the second option. Oddset has odds of 2.05 for “Under 2.5 goals”, but so far all four of Freiburg’s home games, as well as every 05 away game, have been whistled with “Over 2.5 goals”.
ChatGPT is almost too precise in its remaining high-risk recommendation. “Freiburg win by exactly one goal”. A Winamax freebet, which can be perfectly combined with the odds of 3.75, is primarily suitable for this. The bet is not utopian, after all, the last seven matches have never been won by more than one goal difference.
Analysis: Freiburg vs Mainz
Mainz is on a record hunt. That sounds irritating, but it’s a fact. The 05ers have been unbeaten in seven Bundesliga away games this season.
The decisive factor, however, is the goal tally in the four previous visits. Mainz finished each of these with at least three goals scored. Only Bayern have managed five away games in a row with at least three goals scored in the German top flight.
However, I do not weight this series too highly for my Freiburg Mainz betting tip. On the other hand, Freiburg won three of their first four Bundesliga home games under Julian Schuster.
In addition, Mainz have only scored 9.62 expected goals in eight league games – a value that has only been undercut by three other teams (Bochum, St. Pauli and Union Berlin).
Freiburg are not the measure of all things in this category either, but can certainly not complain about 13.24 expected goals (7th).
In addition, the SCF defense has performed at an outstanding level so far, allowing only 8.07 expected goals against (2nd). Only FC Bayern have conceded fewer (5.62 xGA).
To complete the picture, let’s quickly mention the 13.81 expected goals conceded by the visitors, which is only enough for a place in the bottom half of the table (12th).
Odds Analysis
With the comparison of the expected goals and goals conceded by both teams, I want to come back to a suggestion of the AI.
“Under 2.5 goals” in a match yields slightly more than twice the profit and is not too bad an idea from this point of view.
In addition, only in one of the seven previous comparisons between Freiburg and Mainz have there been more than two goals scored.
Julian Schuster is known to adapt his system to his future opponents and has often been right in doing so. As already mentioned, this forward-looking approach has led to the second-best defense in the Bundesliga.
Following this train of thought, I could also imagine a game in which “Mainz scores under 0.5 goals”. At Betano there would be attractive 2.55 odds for this
Freiburg vs Mainz odds: A loss with consequences
Jonathan Burkardt has not only grown into a DFB player, but has also become an important pillar for Mainz.
The attacker has scored the most goals for the 05ers (5) and has been the decisive factor in their successful away record.
Mainz have collected seven out of nine points away from home so far. Burkardt has scored at least one goal in each of these away matches, even scoring twice in two games.
His importance to Mainz’s game was already clear last season. Without their best striker, FSV lost seven out of 13 games. With Burkardt on the pitch, there were only six defeats in 21 matches.
Sophisticated match plans
Nobody expected Julian Schuster to make the kind of start to the season that the new SCF coach has managed.
Freiburg are fifth in the table, level on points with Leverkusen in third place. A key factor in this position is Schuster’s clever match plans.
The home side are able to implement different systems and change their formation at very short notice. This has already made life difficult for some of the top teams in the German top flight. On the first matchday, SCF defeated VfB Stuttgart (3:1) and the Breisgau side also put up considerable resistance in the following match against Bayern (0:2).
Only 8.07 goals conceded (2nd) is of course no coincidence. The Black Forest side allowed the second-fewest shots (84) and received the third-fewest shots on target (28).
With the exception of RB Leipzig (0.08) and Union Berlin (0.09), no team had a lower xGA value per shot on goal than SCF (0.10).
So far, the 05ers have stood out in attack mainly due to their header power. Five headers are unsurpassed in the Bundesliga.
However, another goal with the skull will be difficult against SCF. Only Freiburg and Heidenheim have yet to concede a headed goal this season.
Without Burkardt, the 05ers will also find it difficult to rely on their away strength of recent months. The attacker has recently scored in six Bundesliga away games in a row, but will be absent until the next international break.
On average, FSV players commit 12.5 fouls per matchday. That is the fifth-highest figure of all Bundesliga clubs.
However, Mainz should not concede too many free kicks to the hosts. Last year, Breisgau scored 40 percent of their goals (18/45) from a free kick.
This strength has not yet been fully transferred to the new season, but that may yet come. Against Hamburg, the home side scored both goals from a resting ball.
My Freiburg Mainz betting tip:
There’s no question that Mainz’s current run of seven unbeaten Bundesliga away games is impressive.
However, I can hardly imagine that this period will continue without Jonathan Burkardt.
Freiburg have made a tremendous start to the new season, are already six points clear of FSV and have won three of their four home games under Schuster.
My Freiburg Mainz tip: Victory Freiburg
