Bundesliga 27. Matchday, Sunday, 30.03.2025 at 3:30 pm
SC Freiburg are still in the running for a place in the top flight. The Breisgauer have not been defeated in seven Bundesliga matches in a row.
The last time the hosts had such a long unbeaten run was in the calendar year 2023. The great quality of Julian Schuster’s team has been particularly evident in defending against opposing attacks.
Noah Atubolu only had to reach behind him eight times in the entire second half of the season. This means that the hosts have the third-best record in the second half of the season.
There is certainly room for improvement in their own offensive play, but the SCF can devote themselves to this topic in the second season under Julian Schuster.
For now, the team from the Black Forest will be focusing on bagging three points against Union Berlin next weekend.
A realistic scenario, if you trust my Freiburg Union Berlin betting tip, which I have placed at Interwetten at odds of 2.50 for “Union Berlin Under 0.5 goals”.
The betting providers’ prediction?
Freiburg is one of the three strongest home teams in the Bundesliga (26 points), but I would still choose win odds of around 2.00 primarily with a freebet.
As in the first leg between the two this season (0-0 draw), another goalless draw between these two teams is a distinct possibility. The modest odds of around 3.50 reflect this impression.
We should also not forget that the Irons have won two of their three most recent guest appearances in the German top flight (1N). However, the four-fold win for an away win still does not persuade me to bet on a win for Union Berlin.
AI prediction Freiburg vs Union Berlin: ChatGPT’s tip
Before I continue with my analysis, I would like to present the suggestions from the artificial intelligence. As a gentle introduction, the AI prediction offers a bet on “Under 2.5 goals”, which you can play at Betano at odds of 1.75.
In my opinion, this is a sensible option. Five of SCF’s seven previous Bundesliga matches have ended with a maximum of two goals.
I have already mentioned the good home record of the home side (26 points). The “double chance 1X” is more than realistic. Combined with a bet on “both teams to score”, this would still be too tricky for me, even though ChatGPT spits out this option as a middle variant.
However, if you still want to take a closer look at this suggestion, you can use odds of 2.35 at Tipwin.
The artificial intelligence suggests a bet on “Over 3.5 goals” as the most dangerous option. In my opinion, the last results of the home team speak against this. Nevertheless, you are welcome to take a look at this suggestion and the odds of just under 4.00 in the Bet365 app.
Analysis: Freiburg vs Union Berlin
The last two results of the Berliners sound good at first. After beating Frankfurt (2:1), Steffen Baumgart’s team followed up with a 1:1 draw against Bayern.
However, these positive results do not convince me in the long term. The guests have scored the second-fewest away goals in the German top flight (12) and are quite limited in their attacking play.
The impression of a weak offense is also confirmed by the expected goals of the Irons. Union Berlin has 30.3 expected goals – 16th in the league.
A quick glance at the other side shows why I am betting on “Union Berlin Under 0.5 goals” in my Freiburg Union Berlin betting tip. SCF has only conceded 32.8 expected goals (4th).
Odds analysis
The Breisgauer are not only undefeated in their last three home games (2W, 1D), but they have not conceded a single goal in this period.
The defensive bulwark of Julian Schuster’s team sometimes parks better than Jose Mourinho’s team parks the bus. The Schuster team has not yet conceded more than 13 goals (4th) in their own stadium.
As a little treat, I wouldn’t rule out using a odds boost for a risky but promising bet on “Freiburg to win without conceding a goal”. The odds are well above the 3.00 mark.
Freiburg vs. Union Berlin: Chaos on the highway
In percentage terms, only VfL Bochum play more forward passes (41.32 percent) than Union Berlin (39.91 percent). The Irons don’t spend much time playing one-twos, preferring to get into the opposition box as quickly as possible.
Accuracy does not play a major role in this context. Once again, only the Hecking team (73.86 percent) can demonstrate a weaker rate of completed passes than the Köpenickers (75.58 percent).
Steffen Baumgart’s team is not only lacking in focus on the way forward, but also when it comes to finishing. The percentage of shots on target is abysmal (38.7 percent).
This is accompanied by the catastrophic shot conversion rate of 9.9 percent. Neither of these values is undercut by any other team in the Bundesliga.
The number of away games without scoring a goal is also in line with these figures. FCU has returned from more than half of its away appearances (54 percent) without scoring a goal. This is allowed to happen again in my Freiburg Union Berlin betting tip.
Know the condition of your opponents
Freiburg is always well organized in defense. SCF has already snapped up ten clean sheets (3rd) and has finished 33 percent of home games without conceding a goal.
On the basis of this obvious strength, the Breisgauer have managed to remain unbeaten for seven Bundesliga matchdays in a row, leaving the field with six clean sheets.
However, SCF have found it difficult to create scoring opportunities. The home side have not scored in two of their three previous matches.
Moreover, Schuster’s charges have only scored more than one goal in two of their last seven appearances. It would therefore probably make sense for Union Berlin to let the hosts take control of the game and force them to keep the ball.
Steffen Baumgart’s team is quite capable of spoiling the game for opposing attacking lines, with 37.8 expected goals conceded (8th).
An ability that Union Berlin has mastered for years. It is no coincidence that two of the last three direct duels between Freiburg and the Köpenickers ended goalless.
My Freiburg Union Berlin tip:
I don’t expect much action in front of the two goals and in the two penalty areas. Both teams are much better at securing the spaces in front of their own goal than at presenting the opposing goalkeeper with unsolvable tasks.
Maybe it will be a 0-0 draw, but maybe it will also be a narrow home win for SCF. What is certain for me, however, is that the guests will remain true to their reputation as one of the weakest away attacks and will return to Berlin without scoring.
My Freiburg Union Berlin betting tip is: Union Berlin Under 0.5 Goals!
