Wimbledon, semi-final, Friday, 11.07.2025, 2:45 p.m.
Carlos Alcaraz in the Wimbledon semi-finals? Who would have thought it! The two-time defending champion has fought his way into the last four as expected – despite coming within a hair’s breadth of being knocked out in the first round.
On Friday, the Spaniard will play his last match before the big final, but he definitely hasn’t been given an easy opponent. And the same goes for this man: the opening match of Wimbledon almost turned out to be his last.
So, two superstars with a funny thing in common are going head to head – will that mean we get five sets? From a neutral point of view, I would of course celebrate such a result. Accordingly, I’ll now reveal why I’m placing my Fritz Alcaraz bet on “Fritz to win the set”!
Before this semifinal, I’d like to familiarize you with what you’ll find at our PayPal bookmakers. Anyone who thinks that a match in such an early round should have roughly equal odds is mistaken.
Alcaraz is, as always, the clear favorite. A victory for the Spaniard would earn you average odds of 1.20, while if Fritz were to win in a surprise upset, the odds would be 4.75.
But now let’s get into the analysis. I mentioned at the beginning that Alcaraz can consider himself lucky to still be in the tournament. In the first round, he thought he was already on his way home!
In the end, he won 7-5, 6-7, 7-5, 2-6, 6-1 against Fabio Fognini, giving the Italian an incredible 21 break points. After a much more confident 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 victory over Oliver Tarvet, Alcaraz knocked Jan-Lennard Struff out of the tournament with a 6-1, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 win, which was unfortunate from a German perspective.
Against Andrey Rublev, he once again failed to win a set, but at 6-7, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4, it was his opponent’s one break that cost him the set. Five against Struff, four against Rublev? The break chances he gave away became fewer and fewer.
In the quarterfinals, Alcaraz faced local hero Cameron Norrie. From the start, the match went in one direction, with the score 6-2, 6-3, 6-3. For the second time in the tournament, the world number 2 did not drop a break.
He shone with 89% of points won on his first serve, reaching over 80% in this statistic for the second time in a row. He will, of course, need to play to this strength against tennis giant Taylor Fritz.
In 2023 and 2024, the two met once each, with the Spaniard winning both times in straight sets. This is the first time the two have faced each other on grass, and you already know who the favorite is.
While Alcaraz already has plenty of experience at a young age in reaching the final of a Grand Slam tournament, Taylor Fritz cannot yet match him in this respect.
Last summer, he reached a final for the first time in his career, ultimately losing to Jannik Sinner at the French Open. He is now playing in a semifinal for the second time – and for the first time on the hallowed turf.
His start to the tournament: two tiebreaks lost to Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard! Fritz had to summon all his strength to turn the match around in the end, winning 6-7, 6-7, 6-4, 7-6, 6-4 – a first round can’t last much longer than that.
Crazy: Fritz hit 29 aces, his opponent 37! And although the American had to survive five sets, his opponent did not have a single break point. Anyone who thought Fritz would have an easier time in the second round was mistaken.
At least in part, because the 3-6, 6-3, 7-6, 4-6, 6-3 defeat to Gabriel Diallo was only slightly quicker. At least Fritz advanced in four sets against Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina, winning 6-4, 6-3, 6-7, 6-1.
How did he regain the energy he had partially wasted unnecessarily? In the round of 16, the match against Jordan Thompson ended with a score of 6-1, 3-0, giving Fritz a chance to catch his breath.
The latest impressions from the 6-3, 6-4, 1-6, 7-6 defeat to Karen Khachanov? Very solid. The 27-year-old has had a wild ride, his statistics, especially those from his serve, fluctuate from match to match.
Khachanov took advantage of three of his four break points, which Fritz will not be able to afford against Alcaraz. Let me just mention that his Wimbledon preparation hasn’t been that bad.
Fritz won the tournament in Stuttgart, as well as the competition in Eastbourne. So if he has a good day on the fast grass and thunders his serves over the net, even Carlos Alcaraz will be warned.
My Fritz Alcaraz tip
Of course Carlos Alcaraz wants to reach the Wimbledon final in 2025, because at just 23 years of age, his third consecutive trophy awaits him. But he’s not there yet, because Taylor Fritz is not someone you can beat just like that.
Both Alcaraz and Fritz have had their weak moments in recent days, especially in the first round. That’s why I don’t think the Spaniard will make short work of his rival here, so my prediction is:
Fritz wins a set!
