US Open, semi-finals, Friday, 06.09.2024, 02:30
It’s a big dream that could come true on Friday. A dream of Taylor Fritz to reach the final of the US Open in front of his fans in New York. Frances Tiafoe’s dream, however, is to achieve exactly the same. A dream for all spectators to witness a US-American duel!
The Arthur Ashe Stadium will hold its breath when it says: An American is certain to reach the final! In the eighth direct duel between the two players, the one who has destroyed Alexander Zverev’s Grand Slam hopes is ahead.
Understandable, after all Zverev was the top favorite behind Jannik Sinner of the players initially remaining in the tournament. In my Fritz Tiafoe tip, I will now tell you why I expect a very intense match and why I think there is no alternative to betting on over 3.5 sets
The US Open final will definitely have an American protagonist. Fans in the States have been waiting for it since 2006, when a certain Andy Roddick lost to Roger Federer.
Taylor Fritz or Frances Tiafoe, one of the two hopefuls will be able to cheer on Friday. I’ll start my analysis with Tiafoe, because very few people would have believed that he would even be able to fight for this success.
Just a few months ago, he was still deep in crisis. But when he defeated Carlos Alcaraz in five sets at Wimbledon, people started to listen again. And as soon as the second half of the season began on hard court, we saw the Tiafoe we know again.
He reached the semi-finals at the Citi Open and in Cincinnati he was beaten in the final by Jannik Sinner. The 26-year-old impressed with his usual energetic play; close results, many sets and tiebreaks are standard for him
A few days ago, he started the US Open with a 6-4, 6-3, 4-6, 7-5 win over Aleksandar Kovacevic before Alexander Shevchenko retired at 6-4, 6-1, 1-0 to Tiafoe.
Ben Shelton was a really tough opponent in round 3. Tiafoe, although the underdog, threw everything into the match after falling behind and was rewarded with a 4-6, 7-5, 6-7, 6-4, 6-3 win.
After this tough battle, he faced Djokovic’s conqueror Alexei Popyrin and, lo and behold, he was not to be denied 6-4, 7-6, 2-6, 6-3. The quarter-final against Grigor Dimitrov was ultimately to be over a little quicker than expected
The two played a strong, close match until the middle of the third set, but then the Bulgarian injured his foot. It was 6-3, 6-7, 6-3, 4-1 for Tiafoe when his opponent pulled the ripcord and retired.
Outright victories without an opponent retiring? The local hero hasn’t had any of those in New York, but if he makes it to the final, nobody will care in the end. Two years ago, he came close once before, but was defeated by Carlos Alcaraz.
Not by a clear margin, but in five sets. It’s now time for me to dig out some history and see whether Taylor Fritz as an opponent is a good or rather a bad omen.
The two have played each other seven times so far – and Tiafoe has won exactly one duel! It was the first in 2016, so the winner has always been Taylor Fritz for the last six matches.
It might be interesting to note that there was only one encounter in a final; before that, the two met in the quarter-finals at the earliest. In this match, Fritz won 7-6, 7-6, so it couldn’t have been closer
Of course, you have the option of betting at Bet365 that there will be at least two tiebreaks again this time. The odds for this bet would be very profitable at 3.50.
Speaking of odds, Tiafoe will be able to cope with the fact that he goes into the match as the underdog with average odds of 2.75 to 1.40. Taylor Fritz, on the other hand, is not yet familiar with the feeling of playing for the final at the Arthur Ashe.
The world number 12 prevailed against Alexander Zverev in the quarter-finals – as he did at Wimbledon – winning 7-6, 3-6, 6-4, 7-6. So they’ve been there before, the two tiebreaks, which I also think are possible against Tiafoe.
He only used two out of 13 break opportunities, as Zverev kept making relatively easy mistakes, Fritz didn’t even have to push his limits. Conceded breaks on his side? Only two of them.
He had previously lost the first and now second set of the tournament against Casper Ruud 3-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2, beating Matteo Berrettini, Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Francisco Comesana easily.
It’s hard to believe that this Taylor Fritz only won a single match in Canada and Cincinnati! Apparently he now seems to be aiming for the big time, because he has never reached a final at a Major!
My Fritz Tiafoe tip
New York is looking forward to a semi-final between two US-Americans, it’s been far too long! On paper, Taylor Fritz seems to be the slightly stronger player compared to Frances Tiafoe.
But the supposed underdog is a passionate fighter who really never gives up. The bottom line is that I only see slight differences and can therefore only make the following prediction:
Three sets are not enough here!
